A state-by-state analysis of the job prospects for new law grads

From the New York Times (as you read the stats, below, keep in mind ways in which the study might over-state, or understate, the picture).

We’ve written before about the tough job market for recent law-school graduates. The climate is hard partly because of the weak economy, but also partly because the nation’s law schools are churning out many more lawyers than the economy needs even in the long run.

Now a few researchers have tried to quantify exactly how big that surplus is.

The numbers were crunched by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (also known as EMSI), a consulting company that focuses on employment data and economic analysis. The company’s calculations were based on the number of people who passed the bar exam in each state in 2009, versus an estimate of annual job openings for lawyers in those states. Estimates for the number of openings is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau.

According to this model, every state but Wisconsin and Nebraska (plus Washington, D.C.) is producing many more lawyers than it needs. (See table after the jump for full data.)

In fact, across the country, there were twice as many people who passed the bar in 2009 (53,508) as there were openings (26,239). A separate estimate for the number of lawyers produced in 2009 — the number of new law-school graduates, according to the National Center for Education Statistics — also showed a surplus, although it was not quite as large (44,159 new law grads compared with 26,239 openings).

In raw numbers, New York has the greatest legal surplus by far.

In 2009, 9,787 people passed the bar exam in the Empire State. The analysts estimated, though, that New York would need only 2,100 new lawyers each year through 2015. That means that if New York keeps minting new lawyers apace, it will continue having an annual surplus of 7,687 lawyers.

California and New Jersey have the next largest gluts of new lawyers, according to EMSI.

As noted above, not every state is overproducing lawyers. Nebraska and Wisconsin actually have small deficits of lawyers. The place with the biggest shortage is the District of Columbia, which is projected to have 618 new jobs opening annually for lawyers for the next few years, but had only 273 bar-passers in 2009. (Update: As several readers observed in the comments, the District of Columbia waives in lawyers who are barred in other states, meaning that these figures probably underestimate the number of newly-minted lawyers in the nation’s capital. If you know how to calculate a better estimate for this figure, please e-mail us.)

The District of Columbia has the highest median wage for lawyers in the country: $70.96 an hour.

	2010-15 Est. Annual Openings	2009 Bar Exam Passers	2009 Completers (IPEDS)	Surplus/Shortage	Median Wages
New York	2,100	9,787	4,771	7,687	$56.57
California	3,307	6,258	5,042	2,951	$50.61
New Jersey	844	3,037	787	2,193	$43.84
Illinois	1,394	3,073	2,166	1,679	$51.54
Massachusetts	715	2,165	2,520	1,450	$43.89
Pennsylvania	869	1,943	1,697	1,074	$46.05
Texas	2,155	3,052	2,402	897	$41.55
Florida	2,027	2,782	2,781	755	$36.39
Maryland	560	1,277	548	717	$41.46
Missouri	362	943	908	581	$39.96
Connecticut	316	880	510	564	$43.69
North Carolina	503	1,032	279	529	$37.79
Minnesota	378	888	948	510	$43.69
Ohio	686	1,194	1,513	508	$34.69
Georgia	779	1,217	894	438	$46.11
Colorado	547	967	509	420	$40.83
Virginia	956	1,375	1,435	419	$49.34
Louisiana	357	731	810	374	$33.35
Tennessee	389	735	446	346	$37.34
Washington	619	935	678	316	$37.37
Oregon	291	594	519	303	$34.51
Indiana	339	602	825	263	$32.48
South Carolina	262	506	410	244	$33.03
Kentucky	261	478	389	217	$34.39
Nevada	219	392	143	173	$40.32
Arizona	440	607	378	167	$37.51
New Mexico	134	298	114	164	$29.78
Michigan	862	1,024	1,993	162	$35.22
Kansas	190	351	296	161	$31.16
Alabama	295	455	406	160	$37.98
Iowa	155	290	556	135	$32.16
Rhode Island	102	209	184	107	$39.65
Hawaii	76	179	88	103	$33.70
Mississippi	173	268	335	95	$28.86
Utah	308	401	283	93	$37.04
W. Virginia	100	191	152	91	$32.51
Montana	81	163	83	82	$24.96
Maine	75	153	91	78	$29.70
Arkansas	152	227	243	75	$30.83
Wyoming	40	113	80	73	$29.86
New Hampshire	92	154	146	62	$30.84
Oklahoma	326	387	489	61	$29.56
South Dakota	38	83	73	45	$29.19
North Dakota	33	63	80	30	$28.78
Idaho	128	157	97	29	$30.77
Alaska	41	66	0	25	$37.80
Delaware	116	141	235	25	$60.67
Vermont	51	55	191	4	$30.48
Nebraska	112	109	279	-3	$32.47
Wisconsin	262	248	691	-14	$36.43
D.C.	618	273	2,109	-345	$70.96
Nation	26,239	53,508	44,159	27,269	$44.22

Hat tip to Above the Law (here and here).

(jbl).