Wednesday, June 29, 2011
A state-by-state analysis of the job prospects for new law grads
From the New York Times (as you read the stats, below, keep in mind ways in which the study might over-state, or understate, the picture).
We’ve written before about the tough job market for recent law-school graduates. The climate is hard partly because of the weak economy, but also partly because the nation’s law schools are churning out many more lawyers than the economy needs even in the long run.
Now a few researchers have tried to quantify exactly how big that surplus is.
The numbers were crunched by Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (also known as EMSI), a consulting company that focuses on employment data and economic analysis. The company’s calculations were based on the number of people who passed the bar exam in each state in 2009, versus an estimate of annual job openings for lawyers in those states. Estimates for the number of openings is based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau.
According to this model, every state but Wisconsin and Nebraska (plus Washington, D.C.) is producing many more lawyers than it needs. (See table after the jump for full data.)
In fact, across the country, there were twice as many people who passed the bar in 2009 (53,508) as there were openings (26,239). A separate estimate for the number of lawyers produced in 2009 — the number of new law-school graduates, according to the National Center for Education Statistics — also showed a surplus, although it was not quite as large (44,159 new law grads compared with 26,239 openings).
In raw numbers, New York has the greatest legal surplus by far.
In 2009, 9,787 people passed the bar exam in the Empire State. The analysts estimated, though, that New York would need only 2,100 new lawyers each year through 2015. That means that if New York keeps minting new lawyers apace, it will continue having an annual surplus of 7,687 lawyers.
California and New Jersey have the next largest gluts of new lawyers, according to EMSI.
As noted above, not every state is overproducing lawyers. Nebraska and Wisconsin actually have small deficits of lawyers. The place with the biggest shortage is the District of Columbia, which is projected to have 618 new jobs opening annually for lawyers for the next few years, but had only 273 bar-passers in 2009. (Update: As several readers observed in the comments, the District of Columbia waives in lawyers who are barred in other states, meaning that these figures probably underestimate the number of newly-minted lawyers in the nation’s capital. If you know how to calculate a better estimate for this figure, please e-mail us.)
The District of Columbia has the highest median wage for lawyers in the country: $70.96 an hour.
2010-15 Est. Annual Openings |
2009 Bar Exam Passers |
2009 Completers (IPEDS) |
Surplus/Shortage |
Median Wages |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York |
2,100 |
9,787 |
4,771 |
7,687 |
$56.57 |
California |
3,307 |
6,258 |
5,042 |
2,951 |
$50.61 |
New Jersey |
844 |
3,037 |
787 |
2,193 |
$43.84 |
Illinois |
1,394 |
3,073 |
2,166 |
1,679 |
$51.54 |
Massachusetts |
715 |
2,165 |
2,520 |
1,450 |
$43.89 |
Pennsylvania |
869 |
1,943 |
1,697 |
1,074 |
$46.05 |
Texas |
2,155 |
3,052 |
2,402 |
897 |
$41.55 |
Florida |
2,027 |
2,782 |
2,781 |
755 |
$36.39 |
Maryland |
560 |
1,277 |
548 |
717 |
$41.46 |
Missouri |
362 |
943 |
908 |
581 |
$39.96 |
Connecticut |
316 |
880 |
510 |
564 |
$43.69 |
North Carolina |
503 |
1,032 |
279 |
529 |
$37.79 |
Minnesota |
378 |
888 |
948 |
510 |
$43.69 |
Ohio |
686 |
1,194 |
1,513 |
508 |
$34.69 |
Georgia |
779 |
1,217 |
894 |
438 |
$46.11 |
Colorado |
547 |
967 |
509 |
420 |
$40.83 |
Virginia |
956 |
1,375 |
1,435 |
419 |
$49.34 |
Louisiana |
357 |
731 |
810 |
374 |
$33.35 |
Tennessee |
389 |
735 |
446 |
346 |
$37.34 |
Washington |
619 |
935 |
678 |
316 |
$37.37 |
Oregon |
291 |
594 |
519 |
303 |
$34.51 |
Indiana |
339 |
602 |
825 |
263 |
$32.48 |
South Carolina |
262 |
506 |
410 |
244 |
$33.03 |
Kentucky |
261 |
478 |
389 |
217 |
$34.39 |
Nevada |
219 |
392 |
143 |
173 |
$40.32 |
Arizona |
440 |
607 |
378 |
167 |
$37.51 |
New Mexico |
134 |
298 |
114 |
164 |
$29.78 |
Michigan |
862 |
1,024 |
1,993 |
162 |
$35.22 |
Kansas |
190 |
351 |
296 |
161 |
$31.16 |
Alabama |
295 |
455 |
406 |
160 |
$37.98 |
Iowa |
155 |
290 |
556 |
135 |
$32.16 |
Rhode Island |
102 |
209 |
184 |
107 |
$39.65 |
Hawaii |
76 |
179 |
88 |
103 |
$33.70 |
Mississippi |
173 |
268 |
335 |
95 |
$28.86 |
Utah |
308 |
401 |
283 |
93 |
$37.04 |
W. Virginia |
100 |
191 |
152 |
91 |
$32.51 |
Montana |
81 |
163 |
83 |
82 |
$24.96 |
Maine |
75 |
153 |
91 |
78 |
$29.70 |
Arkansas |
152 |
227 |
243 |
75 |
$30.83 |
Wyoming |
40 |
113 |
80 |
73 |
$29.86 |
New Hampshire |
92 |
154 |
146 |
62 |
$30.84 |
Oklahoma |
326 |
387 |
489 |
61 |
$29.56 |
South Dakota |
38 |
83 |
73 |
45 |
$29.19 |
North Dakota |
33 |
63 |
80 |
30 |
$28.78 |
Idaho |
128 |
157 |
97 |
29 |
$30.77 |
Alaska |
41 |
66 |
0 |
25 |
$37.80 |
Delaware |
116 |
141 |
235 |
25 |
$60.67 |
Vermont |
51 |
55 |
191 |
4 |
$30.48 |
Nebraska |
112 |
109 |
279 |
-3 |
$32.47 |
Wisconsin |
262 |
248 |
691 |
-14 |
$36.43 |
D.C. |
618 |
273 |
2,109 |
-345 |
$70.96 |
Nation |
26,239 |
53,508 |
44,159 |
27,269 |
$44.22 |
Hat tip to Above the Law (here and here).
(jbl).
https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/legal_skills/2011/06/a-state-by-state-analysis-of-the-job-prospects-for-new-law-grads.html
I see a few problems with this study. First, at least the NY figures include a large number of foreign bar takers. How many of them stay in this country? Second, many people take the bar in more than one state. Finally, some American lawyers get jobs in foreign countries.
Posted by: Scott Fruehwald | Jun 29, 2011 3:12:35 PM