Sunday, February 27, 2011

2011-- End of the Housing Crash?

Well, this might be some good news about the housing market from Simon Constable in the Wall Street Journal: Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash.  Although, when you read the whole article it seems decidedly more mixed than the headline might seem to indicate.  From the article:

There might finally be some good news this year about the nation's dismal housing market. Or, at least, the bad news could stop. . . .

"Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own," says Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla.

It is definitely bullish. But what about timing?

"Housing prices will probably bottom in 2011," says Scott Simon, a managing director at money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. He foresaw the housing crash, helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.

The article also notes that because it might be a prolonged recovery, prospective homebuyers should plan to stay in place for at least 10 years (much more than the old conventional wisdom of three or four years to break even on the transaction costs).  How does this square with the new mobility that has been all the rage in social commentary over the last couple decades?

Matt Festa

Financial Crisis, Housing, Mortgage Crisis, Real Estate Transactions | Permalink

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