International Trade Law Prof Blog

Rethinking Our Civil War Over Trade

This is a blog about international trade law written by international trade law professors. So it makes sense that the editors of this blog might assume that international trade is, well, pretty cool.

After all, in an October 2016 survey, 86% of foreign policy scholars thought U.S. involvement in the global economy was a good thing. Only 2% thought it was a bad thing.

But that opinion would put us out of step with many Americans. In an April 2016 survey of the general public, only 44% thought U.S. involvement in the global economy was a good thing, while 49% thought it was bad.

And it’s not just a Republican/Democrat thing. Fewer than half of voters of either party have a positive view of U.S. global economic ties – only 37% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats think trade creates new markets and growth.

Nowhere is this opinion more strongly held than in West Virginia. My fellow West Virginians voted for Trump by the second-highest percentage in the country– 68.7%. Exits polls after the 2016 primaries showed that the economy was the top worry for West Virginia voters of both parties. And West Virginians think trade is a big part of the problem: More than two-thirds of Republican voters and more than half of Democratic voters here said that trade was mostly taking jobs away from Americans.

Republicans were somewhat more likely to have an outright negative view, but many Democrats weren’t enthused either: 55% of Republicans and 44% of Democrats thought U.S. involvement in the global economy leads to lower wages and lost jobs.

The Art of Persuasion, Trade Style

So if foreign policy scholars have a different opinion than the majority of Americans, we have two options:

We could keep pounding on our data and hope for a different electoral outcome in 2018 or 2020.

Or we could dig deeper and see whether we might not be missing something important.

I don’t mean to suggest that trade scholars suddenly start arguing that David Ricardo has no clothes. There are strong arguments in favor of free trade that don’t need to be rehearsed here (but if you want, go ahead here or here or even here).

And Trump’s campaign rhetoric and early actions on trade suggest a protectionist policy that many experts may wish to oppose with vigor. Such opposition is not only principled but critical as the Trump Administration continues to suggest a casual attitude toward rule of law, including respect for U.S. trade commitments.

Still, you can take one page from the playbook of Donald Trump: One of the most important principles of the art of persuasion is that people don’t listen to you when you start by telling them why you’re right.

They are more likely to listen when you start by telling them why they’re right.

And West Virginia voters are right about some things that matter in the trade policy debate.

The Un-Kept Promise of Trade Adjustment Assistance

One of the things West Virginia voters are right about is that trade adjustment assistance is a good idea that mostly hasn’t worked.

In a recent study of the effects of China trade shocks, economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon H. Hanson concluded that “adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences.”

In light of these decade-long shocks, federal benefits for those who have lost jobs due to trade is inadequate: Displaced workers are eligible only for 18 months while in a job re-training program.

Other federal benefits like disability take up some of the slack, but not nearly enough: Autor and colleagues found that workers in the most vulnerable regions lost $549 in annual pay, while total federal benefits for displaced workers increased by only $58.

50^th Out of 50 (Again)

Another thing West Virginia voters are right about is that life in West Virginia has got to get a whole lot better if we are going to talk about a just transition to a global economy.

In a 2017 poll by Gallup and Healthways, West Virginians ranked their own well-being 50^th out of 50 states.

This was not the usual health survey that West Virginians are familiar with (and tired of) ranking near the bottom of: obesity, diabetes, smoking, high blood pressure, etc., etc. Instead, the Gallup/Healthways survey asked residents of each state to rate their own well-being across five elements:

• Purpose – Do you like what you do each day and feel motivated to achieve your goals?
• Social – Do you have supportive relationships and love in your life?
• Financial – Do you manage your economic life to reduce stress and increase security?
• Community – Do you like where you live, feel safe and have pride in your community?
• Physical – Do you have good health and enough energy to get things done daily?

West Virginians had scores in the lowest quintile in all five categories, and the lowest scores of any state on the purpose, financial, and physical categories.

Certainly, not all of this unhappiness is due to loss of manufacturing jobs, and not all loss of manufacturing jobs is due to trade. But the losses are real, and as Autor and his colleagues showed, trade is sometimes a contributing factor.

Calling a Truce and Finding a Way

Refusal by international relations experts to take these concerns about trade seriously is likely to lead only to further protectionism, with consequences for the national economy that are all too foreseeable to international relations experts.

A wiser approach might be meaningful engagement with Trump voters who are searching for remedies to the loss of their jobs, communities, and well-being. If international relations and trade experts began listening more carefully to those voters, perhaps those voters might also be willing to listen more carefully to us about the economic and political effects of protectionism. 

And maybe, by talking to each other instead of at each other, we might come up with some new and better ways to enhance social justice in a globalizing economy.

What Does Trump’s Cuba Policy Mean for Baseball?

On Friday, Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum announcing tighter controls on U.S. economic relations with Cuba. What does this mean for Major League Baseball and the recruiting of Cuban ballplayers, a dicey subject I’ve written about previously on this blog?

Before seeing the regulations that will be forthcoming from Commerce and Treasury, it’s too soon to say. But a couple of aspects of the Trump memorandum suggest that MLB is unlikely to find Treasury a willing partner in its proposal to ease restrictions on doing business with Cuban ballplayers and their teams or agents. Most likely, if MLB wants to reduce the human rights abuses against its star Cuban prospects, it will need to amend its own rules.

GAESA and the “Russian Doll” Problem

One of the primary changes signaled by the presidential memorandum is its prohibition on any transactions with the Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA, or GAESA. Through this company, the military regime under Castro built an investment network that controls major aspects of the Cuban tourism industry, particularly hotels.

This clearly restricts Cuba tourism and may also complicate the proposal made by MLB to the Office of Foreign Assets Control in the spring of 2016. MLB proposed lifting the ban on signing of Cuban players and paying compensation to a newly-created organization devoted to Cuban youth baseball development instead of to the government-owned Cuban teams themselves.

The trouble is that GAESA has been described as “una especie de muñeca rusa” – a sort of Russian doll, each thing hiding something else inside that no one knows about. According to the Miami Herald, GAESA controls about 60 percent of the Cuban economy. With such an extended web of ownership involving GAESA in Cuba, it may be difficult to verify that GAESA holds no ownership interest in whatever entity MLB proposes to pay in exchange for Cuban ballplayers. Without such assurances, OFAC is highly unlikely to entertain MLB’s proposal.

MLB Doesn’t Have to Wait for Trump

The new policy means Trump is not letting MLB off the hook. But MLB can still protect young Cuban baseball players from the greatest dangers of human trafficking and extortion by changing their own regulations.

MLB should change its draft and international free agent rules to allow Cuban ballplayers to sign as international free agents even after defecting directly to the United States.

Under current rules, Cuban players who defect to Mexico or Haiti or the Dominican Republic can sign as international free agents, but if they enter the United States they are subject to the Rule 4 draft. The testimony in the recent federal conviction of a baseball agent and trainer in U.S. v. Hernandez shed light on the coercive and extortionate conditions to which Cuban ballplayers are subject in these third-country defections.

MLB should not wait for Trump. It should make this issue a point of central importance in bargaining its new rules with the MLB Players’ Association next winter.

You can read the earlier post on MLB’s policy toward Cuban players here.

Excerpts from the Senate’s Russia Sanctions Bill

On Thursday, the Senate voted 98-2 in favor of a bill that legislatively formalizes sanctions against Russia and prevents the President from lifting those sanctions without congressional approval.  

The bill was introduced as an amendment to a pending bill about sanctions against Iran. You can read the whole amendment here if you’re into that, or just a few highlights below.

Still just a bill, but this is the strongest action by either House of Congress so far against Russian interference in U.S. elections. It guards against the possibility that Trump has somehow been co-opted by Putin in exchange for easing U.S. sanctions, without openly finding such a relationship. Predictions vary as to whether the House will take it up.  

 

Title II – SANCTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND COMBATING TERRORISM AND ILLICIT FINANCING

...

Sec. 211. Findings.

…

(6) On January 6, 2017, an assessment of the United States intelligence community entitled, “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections” stated, “Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the United States presidential election.” The assessment warns that “Moscow will apply lessons learned from its Putin-ordered campaign aimed at the U.S. Presidential election to future influence efforts worldwide, including against U.S. allies and the election processes”.

Sec. 212. Sense of Congress.

          It is the sense of Congress that the President - 

 (1) should engage to the fullest extent possible with partner governments with regard to closing loopholes, including the allowances of extended prepayment for the delivery of goods and commodities and other loopholes, in multilateral and unilateral restrictive measures against the Russian Federation, with the aim of maximizing alignment of those measures; and

(2) should increase efforts to vigorously enforce compliance with sanctions in place as of the date of the enactment of this Act with respect to the Russian Federation in response to the crisis in eastern Ukraine, cyber intrusions and attacks, and human rights violators in the Russian Federation.

Sec. 215. Short Title.

Th[is] part may be cited as the “Russia Sanctions Review Act of 2017”.

Sec. 216. Congressional Review of Certain Actions Relating to Sanctions Imposed with Respect to the Russian Federation.

(a) Submission to Congress of Proposed Action. –

(1) In General. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, before taking any action described in paragraph (2) the President shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees and leadership a report that describes the proposed action and the reasons for that action.

(2) Actions Described. –

(A) In General. – An Action described in this paragraph is –

(i) an action to terminate the application of any sanctions described in subparagraph (B); …

(B) Sanctions Described. – The sanctions described in this subparagraph are –

(i) sanctions provided for under –

(I) this title or any provision of law amended by this title …

(II) the Support for the Sovereignty, Integrity, Democracy, and Economic Stability of Ukraine Act of 2014 …; or

(III) the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 …; and

(ii) the prohibition on access to the properties of the Government of the Russian Federation located in Maryland and New York that the President ordered vacated on December 29, 2016. …       

(b) Period for Review by Congress. –

…

(3) Limitation on Actions During Initial Congressional Review Period. – Notwithstanding any other provision of law, during the [30-day] period for congressional review provided for under paragraph (1) …, the President may not take that action unless a joint resolution of approval with respect to that action is enacted ...

(4) Limitation on Actions During Presidential Consideration of a Joint Resolution of Disapproval. – Notwithstanding any other provision of law, if a joint resolution of disapproval relating to a report … passes both Houses of Congress … the President may not take that action for a period of 12 calendar days after the date of passage of the joint resolution of disapproval.

(5) Limitation on Actions During Congressional Reconsideration of a Joint Resolution of Disapproval. – Notwithstanding any other provision of law, if a joint resolution of disapproval relating to a report … passes both Houses of Congress … and the President vetoes the joint resolution, the President may not take that action for a period of 10 calendar days after the date of the President’s veto.

(6) Effect of Enactment of a Joint Resolution of Disapproval. – Notwithstanding any other provision of law, if a joint resolution of disapproval relating to a report … is enacted … the President may not take that action.

Sec. 224. Imposition of Sanctions with Respect to Activities of the Russian Federation Undermining Cybersecurity.

(a) In General. – On and after the date that is 60 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President shall –

(1) impose the sanctions described in subsection (b) with respect to any person that the President determines –

(A) knowingly engages in significant activities undermining cybersecurity against any person, including a democratic institution, or government on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation; or

(B) is owned or controlled by, or acts or purports to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, a person described in subparagraph (A) …

Sec. 231. Imposition of Sanctions with Respect to Persons Engaging in Transactions with the Intelligence or Defense Sectors of the Government of the Russian Federation.

(a) In General. – On and after the date that is 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President shall impose … sanctions … with respect to a person the President determines knowingly, on or after such date of enactment, engages in a significant transaction with a person that is part of, or operates for or on behalf of, the defense or intelligence sectors of the Government of the Russian Federation ….

 

Other activities that would trigger sanctions include transacting with Russia for the development of pipelines or providing support to Syria to develop weapons capabilities. The sanctions are described in Section 235 and include refusing Export-Import Bank assistance for exports or denying licenses to export goods or technology to the sanctioned person; blocking bank loans; prohibiting government procurement, foreign exchange transactions, and other financial transactions to the sanctioned person; and prohibiting property transactions in which the sanctioned person has an interest.

Thoughts on the British Election

Please excuse today’s only peripherally trade-related post, but the recent UK election has been on my mind, not least because I’m currently visiting my in-laws here.

In particular, I want to put forward a theory relating to the swing of nearly a fifth (18%) of UKIP voters away from UKIP and towards Labour (57% of of 2015 UKIP voters voted Conservative in the 2017 election, unsurprisingly).

The 2015 UKIP gains and the subsequent Brexit vote can be viewed as a similar manifestation of populist discontent with globalization, writ large, and concern with the growing wealth inequality between the very rich and the rest of the population that was mirrored in Bernie Sanders’ and Donald Trump’s popularity in the 2016 US elections.

If Brexit represents a version of Make Britain Great Again that hearkens back to the pre-1970s Britain, before engagement with the European experiment, then it makes sense that with Farage gone and UKIP in tatters, many UKIP voters would support the Conservative agenda to go through with Brexit. But what about the 18% who went Labour instead?

I would posit that arguably, for some, Jeremy Corbyn represents a return to a properly left-wing Labour, not seen since before Thatcher’s Tory government privatized the UK’s economy. If we view the goal of these UKIP voters as Making Britain Great Again, then some of these voters, who may have come to realize that Brexit is not the answer to their problems, but rather a start of a whole host of other problems, may have decided that the Britain they yearn for, that pre-1970 Britain, can also be recreated by a return to left-wing policies and re-nationalization of the public sector.

Obviously, this is pure speculation. But all things considered, an 18% shift to Labour from supporters of a xenophobic, anti-immigrant party is a positive change, and one that hopefully Labour can capitalize on. Not all those who are frightened by the toll (whether real or perceived) of globalization on national economies are racist or close-minded. Some may be ready to rally behind truly progressive causes.

Mexico and Why It Matters

On May 18, Trump informed Congress of his intent to renegotiate NAFTA, triggering a 90-day consultation period with Congress over the negotiations. This formal move is mandated by the trade promotion authority that governs NAFTA. So we’re looking at a new era of U.S.-Mexico trade relations. Should you care?

If you use banks, then yes, you should care a great deal. What happens to Mexico will happen to your money. Here’s why.

In and Out and In Again on NAFTA

Trump has been talking since the campaign trail about making NAFTA more favorable for U.S. workers. He considered withdrawing from NAFTA, said he was “psyched” to do it, even.

Then on April 27, he announced he had decided not to withdraw from the pact “at this time,” although the justification is unclear. Trump said publicly it was out of respect for Canada and Mexico, but other news reports suggest that he may have been more influenced by Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue’s map showing the overlap between agricultural regions and Trump voter regions.

The High Stakes of Mexico Trade on the U.S. Economy

As Trump is no doubt hearing from advisors and legislators, decisions about U.S.-Mexico trade are high stakes. And it will affect you personally, even if you’re not a farmer and don’t live near the border.

We have to backtrack a few steps to see why you and your money should care about this. First, we all know that trade doesn’t flow only one way, and U.S.-Mexico trade is no exception. In the agricultural sector, for example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics reported that U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico increased from $3.6 billion in pre-NAFTA 1993 to $7.9 billion in 2003 (we may get avocados and mangos from them but they get fruit juices, vegetables, and grains and feeds from us). Moreover, U.S. foreign direct investment in the Mexican food industry more than doubled from $2.3 billion in 1993 to $5.7 billion in 2000, mostly in pasta, confectionery, and canned and frozen meats. (Mexican agricultural trade to the U.S. increased by a larger percentage but a smaller total dollar value in roughly the same period, from $2.7 billion in 1993 to $6.3 billion in 2003.) That means there’s a lot of apple juice and feed corn flowing south across the border because of NAFTA.

But it’s not just farmers that Trump has to worry about. Hurting farmers would have ripple effects that Trump cannot afford because of one important fact of political life, and it’s not the farm lobby; it’s farm debt.

Your Money, Working on the Farm

Although agriculture employs only about two percent of the U.S. population, 51 percent of the U.S. land base was used for agricultural purposes as of 2007. And that land is heavily mortgaged: USDA’s Economic Research Service predicted that farm real estate debt will reach a historic high of $240.7 billion in 2017, with a 7.3 percent increase in real estate mortgage loans. ERS says farmland owners are also increasingly using real estate as collateral to secure nonreal estate borrowing. All this means the banks are in deep on the farms.

So if farms struggle, farm mortgage lenders struggle. And when the banking and lending industry gets hit, Congress hears about it in no uncertain terms – either that or our bank accounts do. As one agricultural lobbyist explained to a reporter, “‘We are different from Microsoft or Fannie Mae. … When groups with ag interests come to us we ask, ‘Who are the mortgage bankers in your district?’” If farmers want to get attention on Capitol Hill, they go arm-in-arm with the lenders they are dependent on.

We've seen this at work before; it's one of the main reasons why repeated attempts to phase out farm subsidies have failed. As soon as commodity prices go down, farmers face default and lenders beat down Congressional doors to make sure supports get put back into place. Collin Peterson, former chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, told a reporter, “‘It’s hard to explain to people, but [direct payments to farmers are] built into the whole farming structure now. … It’s the bankers and the landlords and everything else that wants them. You get everybody stirred up if you try to do something. The farm credit people and the local bankers are more vociferous about direct payments than the farmers.”

Factoring in Farm Lending in the NAFTA Negotiations

Mexico’s trade dependence on the U.S. is not one-sided. Without NAFTA, U.S. farmers will lose big, and when they do, many of them will default on mortgages and other debts. Lenders who rely on that income will make sure Congress hears about it. If Senators and Representatives who depend on the support of the banking and lending industry for reelection start hearing drumbeats, Trump’s hard line on NAFTA may have to soften considerably.