International Financial Law Prof Blog

Editor: William Byrnes
Texas A&M University
School of Law

Monday, February 3, 2020

U.S. Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Up 2.3%)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 27, 2020.

Real GDP: Percent change from proceeding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports, that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was the same as that in the third. In the fourth quarter, a downturn in imports, an acceleration in government spending, and a smaller decrease in nonresidential investment were offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment and a slowdown in PCE.

Current dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $191.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $21.73 trillion. In the third quarter, GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $202.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $148.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $162.6 billion in the third quarter. The smaller increase reflected decelerations in proprietors’ income, personal current transfer receipts, and personal dividend income that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in personal interest income and an acceleration in compensation (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $127.4 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $179.5 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent.

Personal saving was $1.29 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $1.30 trillion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 7.8 percent in the third quarter.

2019 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2019 (from the 2018 annual level to the 2019 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2018 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2019 reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment. Imports increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in 2019, compared to 2018, primarily reflected decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and PCE and a downturn in exports, which were partly offset by accelerations in both state and local and federal government spending. Imports increased less in 2019 than in 2018.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $848.8 billion, in 2019 to a level of $21.43 trillion, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent, or $1,060.8 billion, in 2018 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2018 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (table 4).

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.3 percent during the period. That compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, increased 1.5 percent during 2019. That compared with an increase of 2.2 percent during 2018. The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (table 6).

February 3, 2020 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, January 13, 2020

Gross Domestic Product by State, Third Quarter 2019

Texas Was the Fastest Growing State in the Third Quarter

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the third quarter ranged from 4.0 percent in Texas to 0.0 percent in Delaware (table 1).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2019:Q2-2019:Q3

Nondurable goods manufacturing; retail trade; and professional, scientific, and technical services were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2).

  • Nondurable goods manufacturing increased 10.1 percent for the nation and contributed to growth in all 50 states. This industry was the leading contributor to growth in Texas, the fastest growing state (GDP by Industry table 1).
  • Retail trade increased 8.2 percent for the nation and contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Professional, scientific, and technical services increased 5.6 percent for the nation and contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

In contrast, finance and insurance decreased 5.3 percent for the nation, subtracting from growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This industry was the leading contributor to slow growth in New York and in Delaware–the slowest growing state.

January 13, 2020 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, December 23, 2019

U.S. International Transactions, Third Quarter 2019

Current Account Balance

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $1.1 billion, or 0.9 percent, to $124.1 billion in the third quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised second quarter deficit was $125.2 billion.

The third quarter deficit was 2.3 percent of current dollar gross domestic product, down less than 0.1 percent from the second quarter.

The $1.1 billion narrowing of the current account deficit in the third quarter mainly reflected a reduced deficit on goods and an expanded surplus on primary income.

Quarterly U.S. Current Account and Component Balances

Current Account Transactions (tables 1-5)

Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents decreased $4.3 billion, to $944.4 billion, in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents decreased $5.4 billion, to $1.07 trillion.

Quarterly U.S. Current Account Transactions

Trade in Goods (table 2)

Exports of goods decreased $0.9 billion, to $413.8 billion, and imports of goods decreased $4.5 billion, to $633.4 billion. The decreases in both exports and imports mainly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials, primarily petroleum and products.

Trade in Services (table 3)

Exports of services decreased $0.3 billion, to $212.0 billion, reflecting partly offsetting changes across major categories. Decreases were led by travel, mainly other personal travel, and increases were led by other business services, mainly professional and management consulting services. Imports of services increased $1.6 billion, to $149.8 billion, reflecting increases in nearly all major categories. Increases were led by insurance services, mainly reinsurance.

Primary Income (table 4)

Receipts of primary income decreased $4.1 billion, to $282.0 billion, and payments of primary income decreased $6.2 billion, to $213.3 billion. The decreases in both receipts and payments mainly reflected decreases in direct investment income and in other investment income. Within direct investment income receipts, dividends increased $24.9 billion, to $95.3 billion, in the third quarter and remain elevated since the passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which generally eliminated taxes on repatriated earnings beginning in 2018. For more information, see “How do the effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act appear in BEA’s direct investment statistics?” The decreases in other investment income receipts and payments mainly reflected decreases in interest on loans and deposits.

Secondary Income (table 5)

Receipts of secondary income increased $1.0 billion, to $36.6 billion, mainly reflecting an increase in private sector fines and penalties, a component of private transfer receipts. Payments of secondary income increased $3.7 billion, to $72.0 billion, mainly reflecting increases in U.S. government grants and in insurance-related transfers, a component of private transfer payments.

 

Financial Account Transactions (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Net financial account transactions were −$47.9 billion in the third quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.

Financial Assets (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Third quarter transactions increased U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets by $123.5 billion. Transactions increased direct investment assets, primarily equity, by $33.3 billion; portfolio investment assets, mainly debt securities, by $18.5 billion; other investment assets, primarily loans, by $69.9 billion; and reserve assets by $1.9 billion.

Liabilities (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Third quarter transactions increased U.S. liabilities to foreign residents by $164.9 billion. Transactions increased direct investment liabilities, mainly equity, by $37.6 billion; portfolio investment liabilities, mainly debt securities, by $86.5 billion; and other investment liabilities, mainly bank deposits, by $40.8 billion.

Financial Derivatives (table 1)

Net transactions in financial derivatives were −$6.5 billion in the third quarter, reflecting net borrowing from foreign residents.

December 23, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2017

Majority-owned U.S. affiliates (MOUSAs) of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) employed 7.4 million workers in the United States in 2017, a 2.8 percent increase from 7.2 million in 2016, according to statistics on MOUSA operations and finances released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

MOUSAs accounted for 5.8 percent of total private-industry employment in the United States. Employment by MOUSAs was largest in manufacturing and in retail trade. MOUSAs with ultimate beneficial owners in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany were the largest contributors to total MOUSA employment. (See the Additional Information for definitions of  MOUSAs and other terminology used in this release.)

Employment by Majority Owned US Affiliates

Current-dollar value added of MOUSAs, a measure of their direct contribution to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), increased 8.3 percent to $1.0 trillion. MOUSAs accounted for 6.9 percent of total U.S. business-sector GDP.   

Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment by MOUSAs increased 2.2 percent to $258.6 billion. MOUSAs accounted for 16.4 percent of total U.S. private business capital expenditures. Research and development (R&D) performed by MOUSAs increased 8.1 percent to $62.6 billion. MOUSAs accounted for 15.6 percent of total U.S. business R&D.

MOUSA Share of Private Industry Employment by State

By state, private-industry employment accounted for by MOUSAs was  highest in Kentucky (8.5 percent), South Carolina (8.3 percent), and New Jersey (8.1 percent). In all three states, MOUSAs in the manufacturing industry employed the most workers.

Additional statistics on the activities of U.S. affiliates of foreign multinationals including sales, balance sheet and income statement items, compensation of employees, trade, and more are available on BEA’s website. More industry, country, and state level detail are available on the website and will be highlighted in the December issue of the Survey of  Current Business. 

Updates to the statistics

Statistics for 2016 are revised to incorporate newly available and revised source data. Preliminary statistics for 2016 were released in November 2018 and highlighted in “Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises in  2016” in the December 2018 issue of the Survey of Current Business.

 

Updates to Statistics on 2016 Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises
Billions of dollars, except as noted

  Preliminary
estimate
Revised
estimate
Number of employees (thousands) 7,087.9 7,155.5
Value added 910.6 941.7
Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment 258.9 253.2
Research and development expenditures 60.1 57.9

Next release: November 13, 2020
Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2018

November 21, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Trade war leaves both US and China worse off

Tariffs imposed by the United States on China are economically hurting both countries, UNCTAD warnes in a new paper

The study, Trade and Trade Diversion Effects of United States Tariffs on China, shows that the ongoing US-China trade war has resulted in a sharp decline in bilateral trade, higher prices for consumers and trade diversion effects (increased imports from countries not directly involved in the trade war).

By analysing recently released trade statistics, the study finds that consumers in the US are bearing the heaviest brunt of the US tariffs on China, as their associated costs have largely been passed down to them and importing firms in the form of higher prices.

However, the study also finds that Chinese firms have recently started absorbing part of the costs of the tariffs by reducing the prices of their exports.

“The results of the study serve as a global warning. A lose-lose trade war is not only harming the main contenders, it also compromises the stability of the global economy and future growth,” cautioned UNCTAD’s director of international trade and commodities, Pamela Coke Hamilton. “We hope a potential trade agreement between the US and China can de-escalate trade tensions.”

The analysis shows that US tariffs caused a 25% export loss, inflicting a US$35 billion blow to Chinese exports in the US market for tariffed goods in the first half of 2019.

This figure also shows the competitiveness of Chinese firms which, despite the substantial tariffs, maintained 75% of their exports to the US.

The office machinery and communication equipment sectors were hit the hardest, suffering a $15 billion reduction of US imports from China as trade in tariffed goods in those sectors fell by an average of 55%.

Trade of tariffed goods in sectors such as chemicals, furniture, and electrical machinery also dropped substantially according to the analysis.

Though the study does not examine the impact of the most recent phase of the trade war, it warns that the escalation in summer of 2019 is likely to have added to the existing losses.

While it does not consider the impact of Chinese tariffs on US imports, the study indicates that qualitative results are most likely to be analogous: higher prices for Chinese consumers, losses for US exporters and trade gains for other countries.

While China loses, other economies gain

US tariffs on China have made other players more competitive in the US market and led to a trade diversion effect.

Of the $35 billion Chinese export losses in the US market, about $21 billion (or 63%) was diverted to other countries, while the remainder of $14 billion was either lost or captured by US producers.

According to the report, US tariffs on China resulted in Taiwan (province of China) gaining $4.2 billion in additional exports to the US in the first half of 2019 by selling more office machinery and communication equipment.

Mexico increased its exports to the US by $3.5 billion, mostly in the agri-food, transport equipment and electrical machinery sectors.

The European Union gained about $2.7 billion due to increased exports, largely in the machineries sectors.

Viet Nam’s exports to the US swelled by $2.6 billion, driven by trade in communication equipment and furniture. 

Trade diversion benefits to Korea, Canada and India were smaller but still substantial, ranging from $0.9 billion to $1.5 billion.

The remainder of the benefits were largely to the advantage of other South East Asian countries.

Trade diversion effects favouring African countries have been minimal.

November 14, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, November 10, 2019

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 billion from $55.0 billion in August, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $52.5 Billion -4.7%°
Exports: $206.0 Billion -0.9%°
Imports: $258.4 Billion -1.7%°

Next release: December 5, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 5, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, Seasonally adjusted

Exports, Imports, and Balance 

September exports were $206.0 billion, $1.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $258.4 billion, $4.4 billion less than August imports.

The September decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.7 billion to $71.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.3 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $24.8 billion, or 5.4 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports decreased $7.0 billion or 0.4 percent. Imports increased $17.8 billion or 0.8 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.0 billion to $53.8 billion for the three months ending in September.

  • Average exports decreased $0.1 billion to $207.1 billion in September.
  • Average imports decreased $1.1 billion to $260.9 billion in September.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $0.6 billion from the three months ending in September 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $1.7 billion from September 2018.
  • Average imports decreased $2.3 billion from September 2018.

Exports 

Exports of goods decreased $1.8 billion to $136.8 billion in September.

   Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $1.9 billion.

  • Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $1.5 billion.
    • Soybeans decreased $1.0 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $1.0 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.3 billion.
    • Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles decreased $0.3 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $0.8 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $0.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft engines increased $0.6 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $69.2 billion in September.

  • Travel decreased $0.1 billion.

 

Imports of goods decreased $4.5 billion to $208.6 billion in September.

   Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.3 billion.

  • Consumer goods decreased $2.5 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Toys, games, and sporting goods decreased $0.6 billion.
    • Artwork, antiques, stamps, and other collectibles decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $1.1 billion.
    • Semiconductors decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $1.1 billion.
    • Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles decreased $0.4 billion.
    • Automotive parts and accessories decreased $0.3 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.3 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $49.9 billion in September, reflecting small (less than $50 million) changes in all major service categories.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis

The real goods deficit decreased $3.1 billion to $82.6 billion in September.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $1.5 billion to $148.8 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $4.6 billion to $231.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to August exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.1 billion.

Revisions to August imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis 

The September figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($5.0), Hong Kong ($2.1), Brazil ($1.0), OPEC ($1.0), Singapore ($0.9), United Kingdom ($0.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.0), European Union ($15.7), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($5.9), Germany ($5.0), Italy ($3.0), Canada ($2.5), Taiwan ($2.1), India ($2.0), France ($1.7), and South Korea ($1.2).

  • The deficit with Germany decreased $1.9 billion to $5.0 billion in September. Exports increased $0.7 billion to $5.6 billion and imports decreased $1.2 billion to $10.7 billion.
  • The deficit with China decreased $0.9 billion to $28.0 billion in September. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $9.0 billion and imports decreased $1.9 billion to $37.0 billion.
  • The deficit with Canada increased $0.9 billion to $2.5 billion in September. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $24.5 billion and imports increased $0.6 billion to $27.0 billion.

November 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, November 9, 2019

IRS Releases Statistics of Income Data

2.  Foreign Recipients of U.S. Income, Tax Year 2017


Three tables from SOI's Foreign Recipients of U.S. Income Study, Tax Year 2017, are now available on SOI's Tax Stats Webpage. Tables 1 and 2 present data from Form 1042-S, Foreign Person's U.S. Source Income Subject to Withholding, and include statistics for the number of returns, total income, tax withheld, income subject to withholding, income exempt from withholding, and income by category. Data are available by selected countries and recipient types. Table 3 presents data for returns reporting payments and amounts withheld pursuant to Chapter 4 of the Internal Revenue Code and includes statistics for the number of returns, total income, tax withheld, income subject to withholding, and income exempt from withholding. Data are available by selected income types.

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  3.  U.S. Corporation Returns with a Foreign Tax Credit, Tax Year 2016


Table 2, which presents statistics from Form 1118, Foreign Tax Credit—Corporations, for Tax Year 2016, is now available on SOI's Tax Stats Web page. The data provided include foreign-source gross income, deductions, and taxes paid, accrued, or deemed paid by selected country to which foreign taxes were paid.

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  4.  Controlled Foreign Corporations, Tax Year 2016


Two new tables presenting data from Form 5471, Controlled Foreign Corporations, are now available on SOI's Tax Stats Webpage. The tables present data from the estimated population of returns filed for Tax Year 2016. Table 1 displays number, assets, receipts, earnings, taxes, distributions, subpart F income, and related party transactions for U.S. corporations and their controlled foreign corporations classified by NAICS industrial sector. Table 2 displays number, assets, receipts, earnings, taxes, distributions, subpart F income, and related party transactions for U.S. corporations and their controlled foreign corporations classified by selected country of incorporation.

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November 9, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, October 5, 2019

BEA logo and link to website BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.9 billion in August, up $0.9 billion from $54.0 billion in July, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $54.9 Billion +1.6%°
Exports: $207.9 Billion +0.2%°
Imports: $262.8 Billion +0.5%°

Next release: November 5, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 4, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, Seasonally Adjusted

Exports, Imports, and Balance 

August exports were $207.9 billion, $0.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $262.8 billion, $1.3 billion more than July imports.

The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $74.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $19.5 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $28.3 billion, or 7.1 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports decreased $3.2 billion or 0.2 percent. Imports increased $25.1 billion or 1.2 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages 

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.3 billion to $54.8 billion for the three months ending in August.

  • Average exports decreased $0.8 billion to $207.2 billion in August.
  • Average imports decreased $1.1 billion to $262.0 billion in August.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $3.2 billion from the three months ending in August 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $2.0 billion from August 2018.
  • Average imports increased $1.2 billion from August 2018.

Exports of goods increased $0.4 billion to $138.6 billion in August.

   Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.4 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.5 billion.
    • Fuel oil increased $0.8 billion.
    • Nonmonetary gold increased $0.4 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.5 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.3 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $1.3 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $69.3 billion in August.

  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports of goods increased $1.2 billion to $213.0 billion in August.

   Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.1 billion.

  • Consumer goods increased $1.9 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.1 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $1.9 billion.
    • Semiconductors increased $0.8 billion.
    • Other industrial machines increased $0.4 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.5 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $0.7 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $0.5 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $49.8 billion in August.

  • Insurance services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $0.3 billion to $85.7 billion in August.

  • Real exports of goods increased $1.6 billion to $150.4 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $1.9 billion to $236.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($5.0), Hong Kong ($2.2), Brazil ($1.4), OPEC ($0.8), Singapore ($0.7), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.9), European Union ($15.6), Mexico ($8.4), Germany ($6.9), Japan ($6.1), Italy ($2.6), India ($2.4), Taiwan ($2.3), South Korea ($2.1), Canada ($1.6), and France ($1.5).

  • The deficit with Germany increased $0.7 billion to $6.9 billion in August. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $4.9 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $11.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.5 billion to $2.1 billion in August. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $4.8 billion and imports increased $0.7 billion to $6.9 billion.
  • The deficit with Canada decreased $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion in August. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $24.8 billion and imports decreased $0.8 billion to $26.4 billion.

*             *             *

Next release: November 5, 2019, at 8:30 A.M. EST

October 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019; Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.0 percent. Downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $241.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Updates to GDP

The second-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. Downward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports, and a downward revision to imports. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 2.1 2.0 2.0
Current-dollar GDP 4.6 4.6 4.7
Real GDI 2.1 1.8
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.1 1.9
Gross domestic purchases price index 2.2 2.2 2.2
PCE price index 2.3 2.3 2.4

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $75.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $78.7 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $2.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $22.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $34.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $108.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $38.7 billion, compared with an increase of $7.3 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $25.3 billion, and payments decreased $13.4 billion.

October 3, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, September 15, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.0 billion in July, down $1.5 billion from $55.5 billion in June, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $54.0 Billion -2.7%°
Exports: $207.4 Billion +0.6%°
Imports: $261.4 Billion -0.1%°

Next release: October 4, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 4, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, Seasonally Adjusted

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

July exports were $207.4 billion, $1.2 billion more than June exports. July imports were $261.4 billion, $0.4 billion less than June imports.

The July decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.6 billion to $73.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.7 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $28.2 billion, or 8.2 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports decreased $3.4 billion or 0.2 percent. Imports increased $24.9 billion or 1.4 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $0.7 billion to $55.1 billion for the three months ending in July.

  • Average exports increased $0.5 billion to $208.0 billion in July.
  • Average imports increased $1.2 billion to $263.1 billion in July.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $7.0 billion from the three months ending in July 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $3.0 billion from July 2018.
  • Average imports increased $4.0 billion from July 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $1.2 billion to $138.2 billion in July.

   Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.2 billion.

  • Consumer goods increased $1.5 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $1.2 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $0.8 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.6 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.7 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Metallurgical grade coal decreased $0.2 billion.
    • Fuel oil decreased $0.2 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $0.2 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $69.2 billion in July.

  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Charges for the use of intellectual property decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $0.4 billion to $211.8 billion in July.

   Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.6 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $1.5 billion.
    • Computers decreased $1.4 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $0.9 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $1.0 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $49.6 billion in July.

  • Insurance services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $0.7 billion to $85.5 billion in July.

  • Real exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $148.7 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $0.1 billion to $234.2 billion

September 15, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2017

Worldwide employment by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) increased 0.4 percent to 42.5 million workers in 2017 from 42.3 million in 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the operations and finances of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates.

Employment in the United States by U.S. parents increased 0.2 percent to 28.1 million workers in 2017. U.S. parents accounted for 66.1 percent of worldwide employment by U.S. MNEs, down from 66.3 percent in 2016. Employment abroad by majority-owned foreign affiliates (MOFAs) of U.S. MNEs increased 0.9 percent to 14.4 million workers and accounted for 33.9 percent of employment by U.S. MNEs worldwide.

Employment by U.S. MNEs

U.S. parents accounted for 22.0 percent of total private industry employment in the United States. Employment by U.S. parents was largest in manufacturing and retail trade. Employment abroad by MOFAs was largest in China, United Kingdom, Mexico, India, and Canada.

Worldwide current-dollar value added of U.S. MNEs increased 2.0 percent to $5.3 trillion. Value added by U.S. parents, a measure of their direct contribution to U.S. gross domestic product, was nearly unchanged at $3.9 trillion, representing 22.9 percent of total U.S. private-industry value added. MOFA value added increased to $1.4 trillion. Value added by MOFAs was largest in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Ireland.

Worldwide expenditures for property, plant, and equipment of U.S. MNEs increased 2.0 percent to $853.2 billion. Expenditures by U.S. parents accounted for $653.6 billion and MOFA expenditures for $199.6 billion.

Worldwide research and development expenditures of U.S. MNEs increased 3.3 percent to $354.9 billion. U.S. parents accounted for expenditures of $298.3 billion and MOFAs for $56.6 billion.

Activities of U.S. MNEs

August 31, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, August 30, 2019

BEA News: GDP, 2nd quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2019

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were unrevised (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

Current dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $240.3 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price indexincreased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP in the second quarter was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 2.1 2.0
Current-dollar GDP 4.6 4.6
Real GDI 2.1
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 2.2 2.2
PCE price index 2.3 2.3

For the first quarter of 2019, revised tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program were incorporated into the estimates; the percent change in real GDI was unrevised at 3.2 percent.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $105.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $78.7 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $4.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $22.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $43.5 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $108.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $58.3 billion, compared with an increase of $7.3 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $39.9 billion, and payments decreased $18.5 billion.

August 30, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, August 8, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $55.2 Billion -0.3%°
Exports: $206.3 Billion -2.1%°
Imports: $261.5 Billion -1.7%°

Next release: September 4, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2, 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

June exports were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion less than May exports. June imports were $261.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports.

The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $75.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $20.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $23.2 billion, or 7.9 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $0.5 billion or less than 0.1 percent. Imports increased $23.8 billion or 1.5 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion to $53.9 billion for the three months ending in June.

  • Average exports decreased $1.7 billion to $207.8 billion in June.
  • Average imports decreased $0.6 billion to $261.7 billion in June.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $7.2 billion from the three months ending in June 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $3.3 billion from June 2018.
  • Average imports increased $4.0 billion from June 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $3.9 billion to $137.1 billion in June.

   Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.8 billion.

  • Consumer goods decreased $1.9 billion.
    • Gem diamonds decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Jewelry decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $1.2 billion.
    • Computer accessories decreased $0.4 billion.
    • Other industrial machinery decreased $0.2 billion.
    • Telecommunications equipment decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $0.5 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.5 billion to $69.2 billion in June.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $4.7 billion to $212.3 billion in June.

   Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.4 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $3.2 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $1.0 billion.
    • Fuel oil decreased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.6 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $49.2 billion in June, reflecting small (less than $50 million) changes in all major service categories.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $0.3 billion to $86.1 billion in June.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $2.8 billion to $148.1 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $3.1 billion to $234.2 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to May exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.1 billion.

Revisions to May imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised down $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.8), Hong Kong ($2.3), Brazil ($1.3), and United Kingdom ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($15.9), Mexico ($9.2), Japan ($6.2), Germany ($5.2), Canada ($3.3), Italy ($2.6), France ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.7), India ($1.6), South Korea ($1.4), OPEC ($0.3), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.1).

  • The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.0 billion to $15.9 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $26.7 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $42.7 billion.
  • The surplus with Brazil increased $0.8 billion to $1.3 billion in June. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $3.9 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $2.6 billion.
  • The balance with Singapore shifted from a surplus of $0.6 billion to a deficit of $0.1 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.2 billion to $2.5 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $2.6 billion.

Next release: September 4, 2019: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2019

August 8, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, August 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q2 2019 Adv

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $239.1 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Personal Income (table 8)

Current-dollar personal income increased $244.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $269.8 billion in the first quarter. Decelerations in compensation and in personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by an upturn in personal income receipts on assets and a deceleration in contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction in the calculation of personal income).

Disposable personal income increased $193.4 billion, or 4.9 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.

Personal saving was $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.37 trillion in the first quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 8.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with 8.5 percent in the first quarter.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the source data and key assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The update covers the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019.

With today's release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA's Interactive Data application on the BEA Web site (www.bea.gov). See "Information on Updates to the National Income and Product Accounts" for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results for 2014 through 2018, which includes a discussion of  methodology changes. A table showing the major current‑dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2019 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today's release, are found in BEA's archives.

Updates for the first quarter of 2019

For the first quarter of 2019, real GDP is estimated to have increased 3.1 percent (table 1), the same as previously published. Downward revisions to exports, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were offset by upward revisions to PCE and federal government spending.

For the period of expansion from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, the same as previously published.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have increased 1.0 percent.

  First Quarter 2019
  Previous Estimate Revised
  Percent change from preceding quarter
Real GDP 3.1 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.9
Real GDI 1.0 3.2
Average of Real GDP and GDI 2.1 3.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.8
PCE price index 0.5 0.4

*         *         *

Next release, August 29, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

August 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Gross Domestic Product by State, First Quarter 2019

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from 5.2 percent in West Virginia to 1.2 percent in Hawaii (table 1).

Chart: Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2018:Q4-2019:Q1

Highlights

  • Finance and insurance, retail trade, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). These industries increased 9.5 percent, 11.9 percent, and 6.2 percent, respectively (GDP by Industry table 1), and contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Mining for the nation increased 26.5 percent, after increasing 38.0 percent in the fourth quarter. This industry was the leading contributor to growth in several states, including the three fastest growing states of West Virginia, Texas, and New Mexico.
  • The government sector decreased 1.1 percent nationally and slowed growth in most states, especially in the District of Columbia. The decrease was partly due to the partial federal government shutdown in January 2019.

August 4, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

USA Outward and Inward Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2018

These statistics cover outward and inward direct investment positions, financial transactions, and income in 2018 and will provide information answering the following questions:
  • How much did U.S. multinationals repatriate following the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
  • Which countries and industries repatriated the most in 2018?
  • Which countries are the largest destinations for U.S. multinational enterprises’ direct investment?
  • Which countries’ multinational enterprises have the largest direct investment positions in the United States?
  • In which industries is foreign direct investment concentrated?
Statistics on foreign direct investment in the United States include data by the country of the immediate foreign parent as well as data by the country of the ultimate beneficial owner. Statistics on U.S. direct investment abroad will include data by the country and industry of the foreign affiliate as well as data by the industry of the U.S. parent.
Business people, economists, researchers and policymakers can use these data to help them assess the impact of direct investment on the U.S. and foreign economies and on various industries. Additionally, these statistics provide information about globalization and the economic ties between the United States and other countries.

The U.S. direct investment abroad position, or cumulative level of investment, decreased $62.3 billion to $5.95 trillion at the end of 2018 from $6.01 trillion at the end of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The decrease was due to the repatriation of accumulated prior earnings by U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates, largely in response to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The decrease reflected a $75.8 billion decrease in the position in Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere, primarily in Bermuda. By industry, holding company affiliates owned by U.S. manufacturers accounted for most of the decrease. 

The foreign direct investment in the United States position increased $319.1 billion to $4.34 trillion at the end of 2018 from $4.03 trillion at the end of 2017. The increase mainly reflected a $226.1 billion increase in the position from Europe, primarily the Netherlands and Ireland. By industry, affiliates in manufacturing, retail trade, and real estate accounted for the largest increases. 

Chart of sDirect Investment Positions, 2017-2018

Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. Direct Investment Abroad

The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates. Dividends of $776.5 billion in 2018 exceeded earnings for the year, which led to negative reinvestment of earnings, decreasing the investment position for the first time since 1982. Tables 3 and 4 provide information on the country and industry breakdown of dividends.

By country, nearly half of the dividends in 2018 were repatriated from affiliates in Bermuda ($231.0 billion) and the Netherlands ($138.8 billion). Ireland was the third largest source of dividends, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. By industry, U.S. multinationals in chemical manufacturing ($209.1 billion) and computers and electronic products manufacturing ($195.9 billion) repatriated the most in 2018.

Chart of USDIA: Dividends by Country of Affiliate: 2017-2018

U.S. direct investment abroad (tables 1 – 6)

U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest in nearly every country, but their investment in affiliates in five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2018. The U.S. direct investment abroad position remained the largest in the Netherlands at $883.2 billion, followed by the United Kingdom ($757.8 billion), Luxembourg ($713.8 billion), Ireland ($442.2 billion), and Canada ($401.9 billion). 

By industry of the directly-owned foreign affiliate, investment was highly concentrated in holding companies, which accounted for nearly half of the overall position in 2018. Most holding company affiliates, which are owned by U.S. parents from a variety of industries, own other foreign affiliates that operate in a variety of industries. By industry of the U.S. parent, investment by manufacturing MNEs accounted for 54.0 percent of the position, followed by MNEs in finance and insurance (12.1 percent). 

U.S. MNEs earned income of $531.0 billion in 2018 on their cumulative investment abroad, a 12.8 percent increase from 2017.

Foreign direct investment in the United States (tables 7 – 10)

By country of the foreign parent, five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2018. The United Kingdom remained the top investing country with a position of $560.9 billion. Canada ($511.2 billion) moved up one position from 2017 to be the second-largest investing country, moving Japan ($484.4 billion) into third, while the Netherlands ($479.0 billion) and Luxembourg ($356.0 billion) switched places as the fourth and fifth largest investing countries at the end of 2018. 

By country of the ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), the top five countries in terms of position were the United Kingdom ($597.2 billion), Canada ($588.4 billion), Japan ($488.7 billion), Germany ($474.5 billion), and Ireland ($385.3 billion). On this basis, investment from the Netherlands and Luxembourg was much lower than by country of foreign parent, indicating that much of the investment from foreign parents in these countries was ultimately owned by investors in other countries. 

Foreign direct investment in the United States was concentrated in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which accounted for 40.8 percent of the position. There was also sizable investment in finance and insurance (12.1 percent). 

Foreign MNEs earned income of $208.1 billion in 2018 on their cumulative investment in the United States, a 19.7 percent increase from 2017.

Updates to Direct Investment Statistics Delayed

Updates to BEA’s detailed country and industry statistics for U.S. direct investment abroad and for foreign direct investment in the United States for 2016 and 2017 were delayed due to the impact of the partial federal government shutdown that started in late December 2018. BEA will update the 2016 and 2017 statistics in 2020 along with updates to the 2018 statistics." 

July 24, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, July 14, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $55.5 Billion +8.4%°
Exports: $210.6 Billion +2.0%°
Imports: $266.2 Billion +3.3%°

Next release: August 2, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 3, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, May 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports. May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.

The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $15.7 billion, or 6.4 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent. Imports increased $20.8 billion or 1.6 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.8 billion to $52.9 billion for the three months ending in May.

  • Average exports increased $0.3 billion to $209.5 billion in May.
  • Average imports increased $2.2 billion to $262.4 billion in May.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.3 billion from the three months ending in May 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $1.2 billion from May 2018.
  • Average imports increased $5.1 billion from May 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $3.9 billion to $140.8 billion in May.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $4.0 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $1.4 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $0.5 billion.
    • Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $0.8 billion.
    • Gem diamonds increased $0.3 billion.
    • Jewelry increased $0.3 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.2 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.7 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.7 billion.
  • Other goods increased $0.6 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.6 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $69.8 billion in May.

  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $8.3 billion to $217.0 billion in May.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $8.1 billion.

  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $2.3 billion.
    • Passenger cars increased $1.5 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.8 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $1.3 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $1.6 billion.
    • Semiconductors increased $0.5 billion.
    • Computers increased $0.4 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $1.4 billion.
  • Other goods increased $1.0 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $49.2 billion in May.

  • Transport increased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $4.8 billion to $87.0 billion in May.

  • Real exports of goods increased $4.6 billion to $150.5 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $9.3 billion to $237.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to April exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.4 billion.

Revisions to April imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Hong Kong ($2.6), Singapore ($0.6), Brazil ($0.5), Saudi Arabia (less than $0.1), and United Kingdom (less than $0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).

  • The deficit with Canada increased $1.8 billion to $3.6 billion in May. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $24.3 billion and imports increased $1.5 billion to $27.9 billion.
  • The deficit with the European Union increased $1.8 billion to $16.9 billion in May. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $27.2 billion and imports increased $2.0 billion to $44.1 billion.
  • The deficit with Japan decreased $0.5 billion to $6.0 billion in May. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $6.6 billion and imports increased less than $0.1 billion to $12.5 billion.

*             *             *

Next release: August 2, 2019

July 14, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, July 12, 2019

New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2018

Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $296.4 billion (preliminary) in 2018. Expenditures were up 8.7 percent from $272.8 billion (revised) in 2017 but were below the annual average of $338.1 billion for 2014–2017. As in previous years, acquisitions of existing businesses accounted for a large majority of total expenditures.

New

In 2018, expenditures for acquisitions were $287.3 billion, expenditures to establish new U.S. businesses were $5.3 billion, and expenditures to expand existing foreign-owned businesses were $3.8 billion. Planned total expenditures, which include both first-year and planned future expenditures, were $318.1 billion. 

Expenditures by industry, country, and state in 2018

By industry, expenditures for new direct investment were mainly concentrated in manufacturing, which accounted for 67.4 percent of total expenditures, or $199.7 billion. Within manufacturing, expenditures were largest in chemical manufacturing ($142.3 billion). There were also notable expenditures in real estate, rental, and leasing ($22.1 billion) and information ($16.3 billion).

By country of ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), Germany and Ireland had the largest expenditures, but their values are suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. Canada ($32.5 billion) was the third largest investing country. By region, Europe contributed nearly three-quarters of new investment in 2018.

By U.S. state, Missouri received the largest investment, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. New York ($63.0 billion), Texas ($31.1 billion), and California ($27.3 billion) also received significant investment.

Greenfield expenditures

Greenfield investment expenditures—expenditures to either establish a new U.S. business or to expand an existing foreign-owned U.S. business—were $9.1 billion in 2018. Total planned expenditures until completion for greenfield investment initiated in 2018, which include both first-year and future expenditures, were $30.8 billion. 

By U.S. industry, greenfield expenditures in 2018 were largest in manufacturing ($2.6 billion) and real estate, rental, and leasing ($2.6 billion). By country of UBO, Canada ($2.4 billion) and Japan ($1.2 billion) had the largest expenditures. By U.S. state, Texas received the highest level of greenfield investment ($2.0 billion), followed by New York ($1.6 billion).   

Employment by newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses

In 2018, employment at newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses in the United States was 430,600 employees. Current employment of acquired enterprises was 426,400. Total planned employment, which includes the current employment of acquired enterprises, the planned employment of newly established business enterprises when fully operational, and the planned employment associated with expansions, was 469,800.

By industry, manufacturing accounted for the largest number of employees (209,000), followed by retail trade (62,500). By country of UBO, Canada accounted for the largest number of employees (84,300), followed by the United Kingdom (68,900), and Ireland (68,300).

By U.S. state, California had the largest employment (102,000), followed by New York (55,300) and Texas (45,500). Employment for an acquired entity that operated in multiple states is attributed to the state in which it had the greatest number of employees.

 

Updates to 2017 Expenditures for New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
Billions of dollars

  Previously Published Estimate Revised Estimate
First-year expenditures 259.6 272.8
    U.S. businesses acquired 253.2 261.5
    U.S. businesses established 4.1 6.0
    U.S. businesses expanded 2.4 5.3
Planned total expenditures 278.0 299.9
    U.S. businesses acquired 253.2 261.5
    U.S. businesses established 18.0 23.3
    U.S. businesses expanded 6.8 15.2

Next release: July 2020

July 12, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, July 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, First Quarter 2019 (Revised Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.1 percent. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from exports, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were slightly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending and accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports. These movements were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE. Imports decreased in the first quarter after increasing in the fourth (table 2).

Current–dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $195.0 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price indexincreased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Updates to GDP

The first-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated, reflecting upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were offset by downward revisions to PCE and inventory investment, and an upward revision to imports. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.2 3.1 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.6 3.8
Real GDI 1.4 1.0
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.2 2.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.7 0.8
PCE price index 0.6 0.4 0.5
 
Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26. For more information, see the Technical Note.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $13.8 billion, and payments increased $6.4 billion.

July 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, July 4, 2019

IRS Tax Stats Dispatch

 1.  2014 Corporation Income Tax Returns Complete Report (Publication 16)

Tables presenting statistics from Forms 1120, U.S. Corporation Income Tax Return, are now available. These tables presents comprehensive data on corporation income tax returns with accounting periods ending July 2014 through June 2015. Statistics are presented by industry, asset size, business receipts size, tax form type, and other selected classifiers. Separate tabulations of data reported on Form 1120S, U.S. Income Tax Return for an S Corporation, are also included. The Tax Year 2014 Complete Report presents a significant update to the presentation of corporate tax information. Data formerly presented in a cross-sectional format in a related publication, Corporation Source Book of Statistics of Income, are now included in this publication. Additional tables were also updated, reorganized, and renumbered.

 

  2.  Partnerships, Withholding on Foreign Recipients of U.S. Income, Tax Year 2016

One new table presenting data from Form 8805, Foreign Partner's Information Statement of Section 1446 Withholding Tax, is now available on SOI's Tax Stats Web page. The table provides U.S. income and tax withheld as reported on Form 8805, by country of residence for Tax Year 2016, and includes the number of returns, total income, income, loss, and tax withheld.

 

  3.  Withholding on Dispositions by Foreign Persons of U.S. Real Property Interests, Calendar Year 2016

A table presenting data from Form 8288-A, Withholding on Dispositions by Foreign Persons of U.S. Real Property Interests, for Calendar Year 2016, is now available on SOI's Tax Stats Web page. The table presents the number of returns reporting the sales price of U.S. real property interest, Federal income tax withheld,  and country of residence of foreign person as reported on Form 8288-A.

July 4, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)