International Financial Law Prof Blog

U.S. International Transactions, 3rd Quarter 2020

Current Account Deficit Widens by 10.6 Percent in Third Quarter

Current Account Balance, Third Quarter

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $17.2 billion, or 10.6 percent, to $178.5 billion in the third quarter of 2020, according to statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised second quarter deficit was $161.4 billion.

The third quarter deficit was 3.4 percent of current dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.3 percent in the second quarter.

The $17.2 billion widening of the current account deficit in the third quarter mostly reflected an expanded deficit on goods that was partly offset by an expanded surplus on primary income.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on Third Quarter 2020 International Transactions

All major categories of current account transactions increased in the third quarter of 2020 following notable declines in the second quarter, reflecting the resumption of trade and other business activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. In the financial account, most of the currency swaps between the U.S. Federal Reserve System and foreign central banks that remained at the end of the second quarter were ended in the third quarter, contributing to the continued U.S. withdrawal of deposit assets abroad and the continued U.S. repayment of deposit and loan liabilities. A record level of net shipments of U.S. currency abroad to meet the demand for U.S. currency by foreign residents increased U.S. currency liabilities, partly offsetting the net repayment of U.S. deposit liabilities. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on the statistics, see the technical note that accompanies this release.

Current Account Transactions (tables 1-5)

Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $99.4 billion, to $796.0 billion, in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $116.6 billion, to $974.5 billion.

Trade in Goods (table 2)

Exports of goods increased $68.4 billion, to $357.1 billion, and imports of goods increased $94.4 billion, to $602.7 billion. The increases in both exports and imports reflected increases in all major categories, led by automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, mainly parts and engines and passenger cars.

Trade in Services (table 3)

Exports of services increased $2.8 billion, to $164.8 billion, mainly reflecting an increase in charges for the use of intellectual property, mostly licenses for the use of outcomes of research and development, that was partly offset by a decrease in travel, primarily education-related travel. Imports of services increased $6.5 billion, to $107.7 billion, mainly reflecting increases in charges for the use of intellectual property, mostly licenses for the use of outcomes of research and development; in transport, primarily sea freight transport; and in travel, primarily other personal travel.

Primary Income (table 4)

Receipts of primary income increased $26.8 billion, to $238.7 billion, and payments of primary income increased $11.9 billion, to $190.6 billion. The increases in both receipts and payments mainly reflected increases in direct investment income, primarily earnings.

Secondary Income (table 5)

Receipts of secondary income increased $1.4 billion, to $35.3 billion, reflecting an increase in private transfers, mostly private sector fines and penalties, that was partly offset by a decrease in general government transfers, mainly government sector fines and penalties. Payments of secondary income increased $3.7 billion, to $73.5 billion, reflecting increases in private transfers, primarily private sector fines and penalties, and in general government transfers, mostly international cooperation.

Capital Account Transactions (table 1)

Capital transfer receipts increased $0.3 billion, to $0.4 billion, in the third quarter, reflecting the U.S. Department of State’s sale of a property in Hong Kong.

Financial Account Transactions (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Net financial account transactions were −$221.1 billion in the third quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.

Financial Assets (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Third quarter transactions decreased U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets by $73.0 billion. Transactions decreased other investment assets, mostly currency and deposits, by $288.1 billion. Transactions in deposits included a net withdrawal by the U.S. Federal Reserve of $203.0 billion from deposits abroad related to the ending of currency swaps. Transactions increased direct investment assets, mostly equity, by $71.1 billion; portfolio investment assets, mostly equity securities, by $142.2 billion; and reserve assets by $1.8 billion.

Liabilities (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Third quarter transactions increased U.S. liabilities to foreign residents by $172.0 billion. Transactions increased direct investment liabilities, both equity and debt, by $70.5 billion and portfolio investment liabilities, mostly equity securities, by $147.5 billion. Transactions decreased other investment liabilities, mostly loans, by $46.0 billion.

Financial Derivatives (table 1)

Net transactions in financial derivatives were $24.0 billion in the third quarter, reflecting net lending to foreign residents.

Updates to Second Quarter 2020 International Transactions Accounts Balances Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
	Preliminary estimate	Revised estimate
Current account balance	−170.5	−161.4
Goods balance	−219.3	−219.5
Services balance	54.4	60.9
Primary income balance	29.2	33.2
Secondary income balance	−34.9	−35.9
Net financial account transactions	−82.6	−206.6

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Next release: March 23, 2021 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

BEA News: Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises, 2018

Majority-owned U.S. affiliates (MOUSAs) of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) employed 7.8 million workers in the United States in 2018, a 1.9 percent increase from 7.7 million in 2017, according to statistics on MOUSA operations and finances released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

MOUSAs accounted for 6.0 percent of total private-industry employment in the United States. Employment by MOUSAs was largest in manufacturing and in retail trade. MOUSAs with ultimate owners in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany were the largest contributors to total MOUSA employment. (See the Additional Information for definitions of MOUSAs and other terminology used in this release.)

Employment by Majority-Owned U.S. Affiliates, 2018

Current-dollar value added of MOUSAs, a measure of their direct contribution to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), increased 8.4 percent to $1.1 trillion. MOUSAs accounted for 7.1 percent of total U.S. business-sector value added.

Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment by MOUSAs increased 4.0 percent to $277.4 billion. MOUSAs accounted for 16.3 percent of total U.S. private business capital expenditures. Research and development (R&D) performed by MOUSAs increased 6.6 percent to $66.9 billion. MOUSAs accounted for 15.2 percent of total U.S. business R&D.

MOUSA Share of Private Industry Employment by State, 2018

By state, private-industry employment accounted for by MOUSAs was highest in South Carolina (8.8 percent), Kentucky (8.4 percent), and Michigan (8.2 percent). In all three states, MOUSAs in the manufacturing industry employed the most workers.

Additional statistics on the activities of U.S. affiliates of foreign multinationals including sales, balance sheet and income statement items, compensation of employees, trade, and more are available on BEA's website. More industry, country, and state level detail are available on the website and will be highlighted in the December issue of the Survey of Current Business.

Updates to the statistics

Statistics for 2017 are revised to incorporate newly available and revised source data. Preliminary statistics for 2017 were released in November 2019 and highlighted in "Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises in 2017" in the December 2019 issue of the Survey of Current Business.

Updates to Statistics on 2017 Activities of U.S. Affiliates of Foreign Multinational Enterprises
Billions of dollars, except as noted

	Preliminary estimate	Revised estimate
Number of employees (thousands)	7,357.7	7,661.3
Value added	1,020.2	1,034.7
Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment	258.6	266.8
Research and development expenditures	62.6	62.8

USA Gross Domestic Product 3rd Quarter 2020 jumps 33%, but disposable personal income decreased 16%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2020.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q3 2020 (Adv)

COVID-19 Impact on the Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate

The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending (reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans) and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by health care as well as food services and accommodations) and goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as clothing and footwear). The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected an increase in retail trade (led by motor vehicle dealers). The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts as well as capital goods). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income decreased $540.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.45 trillion in the second quarter. The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs) that was partly offset by increases in compensation and proprietors' income (table 8). Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found in "Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income."

Disposable personal income decreased $636.7 billion, or 13.2 percent, in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $1.60 trillion, or 44.3 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 16.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 46.6 percent.

Personal saving was $2.78 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $4.71 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 15.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 25.7 percent in the second quarter.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in August, up $3.7 billion from $63.4 billion in July, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit

Deficit:	$67.1 Billion	+5.9%°
Exports:	$171.9 Billion	+2.2%°
Imports:	$239.0 Billion	+3.2%°
Next release: November 4, 2020 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 6, 2020

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on International Trade in Goods and Services

Exports and imports in August reflect both the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the continued recovery from the sharp declines earlier this year. The full economic effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis continue to monitor data quality and have determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information, see the frequently asked questions on goods from the Census Bureau and on services from BEA.

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

August exports were $171.9 billion, $3.6 billion more than July exports. August imports were $239.0 billion, $7.4 billion more than July imports.

The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.0 billion to $83.9 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.7 billion to $16.8 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $22.6 billion, or 5.7 percent, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $296.1 billion or 17.6 percent. Imports decreased $273.5 billion or 13.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $3.1 billion to $61.3 billion for the three months ending in August.

• Average exports increased $10.0 billion to $165.2 billion in August.
• Average imports increased $13.1 billion to $226.6 billion in August.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $10.1 billion from the three months ending in August 2019.

• Average exports decreased $44.8 billion from August 2019.
• Average imports decreased $34.7 billion from August 2019.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $119.1 billion in August.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $3.4 billion.

• Industrial supplies and materials increased $3.9 billion.
  • Nonmonetary gold increased $1.8 billion.
• Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.1 billion.
  • Soybeans increased $1.0 billion.
• Capital goods decreased $1.4 billion.
  • Semiconductors decreased $1.2 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $52.8 billion in August.

• Other business services increased $0.2 billion.
• Transport increased $0.1 billion.
• Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.
• Travel decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $6.5 billion to $203.0 billion in August.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $6.5 billion.

• Consumer goods increased $3.8 billion.
  • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $2.7 billion.
• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.7 billion.
  • Passenger cars increased $1.0 billion.
• Other goods increased $1.1 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.5 billion.
  • Nonmonetary gold decreased $2.1 billion.
  • Finished metal shapes decreased $1.6 billion.
  • Crude oil increased $1.0 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.8 billion to $36.1 billion in August.

• Travel increased $0.3 billion.
• Transport increased $0.3 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $1.2 billion to $92.3 billion in August.

• Real exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $136.7 billion.
• Real imports of goods increased $4.7 billion to $229.0 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to July exports

• Exports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
• Exports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Revisions to July imports

• Imports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
• Imports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.4), Hong Kong ($1.7), OPEC ($1.3), Brazil ($1.0), United Kingdom ($1.0), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), and Singapore ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($26.4), European Union ($15.7), Mexico ($12.5), Germany ($4.6), Japan ($4.3), Italy ($2.6), Taiwan ($2.6), India ($2.3), France ($2.2), South Korea ($2.2), and Canada ($1.2).

• The deficit with Germany increased $1.6 billion to $4.6 billion in August. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $4.9 billion and imports increased $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion.
• The deficit with Japan increased $1.0 billion to $4.3 billion in August. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $5.3 billion and imports increased $1.5 billion to $9.6 billion.
• The deficit with China decreased $1.9 billion to $26.4 billion in August. Exports increased $1.7 billion to $11.2 billion and imports decreased $0.2 billion to $37.7 billion.

U.S. International Investment Position, Second Quarter 2020

The U.S. net international investment position, the difference between U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities, was –$13.05 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2020, according to statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Assets totaled $28.87 trillion and liabilities were $41.92 trillion.

At the end of the first quarter, the net investment position was –$12.16 trillion (Table 1).

The –$882.6 billion change in the net investment position from the first quarter to the second quarter came from net financial transactions of –$77.5 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange rate changes, of –$805.1 billion (Table A).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on Second Quarter 2020 International Investment Position

In the second quarter of 2020, U.S. assets and liabilities increased following the first quarter decreases that reflected the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A recovery in global stock prices, responding to monetary accommodation and fiscal stimulus measures in the United States and abroad, drove the increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets and liabilities. Both U.S. deposit assets and liabilities decreased, as some currency swap transactions between the U.S. Federal Reserve System and several foreign central banks in Europe and Japan were allowed to expire amid improved liquidity conditions in the global dollar funding markets. These currency swaps were initiated in the first quarter to alleviate the dollar shortage overseas. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the IIP statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information on the currency swaps, see the technical note that accompanied the September 18 international transactions accounts news release.

Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment Position
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

	Position, 2020 Q1	Change in position in 2020 Q2			Position, 2020 Q2
		Total	Attributable to:
			Financial transactions	Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position	-12,163.3	-882.6	-77.5	-805.1	-13,045.9
Net position excluding financial derivatives	-12,197.0	-871.1	-137.8	-733.3	-13,068.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net	33.7	-11.5	60.3	-71.7	22.2
U.S. assets	26,921.3	1,951.5	(2)	(2)	28,872.8
Assets excluding financial derivatives	23,925.2	2,196.8	-141.1	2,337.9	26,122.0
Financial derivatives other than reserves	2,996.1	-245.3	(2)	(2)	2,750.8
U.S. liabilities	39,084.5	2,834.1	(2)	(2)	41,918.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives	36,122.1	3,067.9	-3.3	3,071.3	39,190.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves	2,962.4	-233.8	(2)	(2)	2,728.6
1. Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year. 2. Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. assets increased by $1.95 trillion, to a total of $28.87 trillion, at the end of the second quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by decreases in financial derivatives and other investment assets. Portfolio investment assets increased by $1.39 trillion, to $12.39 trillion, and direct investment assets increased by $938.8 billion, to $7.94 trillion, driven mainly by increases in foreign stock prices that raised the value of these assets. Global stock prices recovered from the decreases that occurred in the first quarter at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

U.S. liabilities increased by $2.83 trillion, to a total of $41.92 trillion, at the end of the second quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities that were partly offset by decreases in other investment liabilities and financial derivatives. Portfolio investment liabilities increased by $2.10 trillion, to $22.03 trillion, and direct investment liabilities increased by $1.34 trillion, to $10.10 trillion, driven mainly by increases in U.S. stock prices that raised the value of these liabilities.

Updates to First Quarter 2020 International Investment Position Aggregates Trillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
	Preliminary estimate	Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position	-12.06	−12.16
U.S. assets	26.77	26.92
U.S. liabilities	38.82	39.08

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Next release: December 29, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EST
U.S. International Investment Position, Third Quarter 2020

COVID-19 has changed online shopping forever, survey shows

The pandemic has accelerated the shift towards a more digital world and triggered changes in online shopping behaviours that are likely to have lasting effects

The COVID-19 pandemic has forever changed online shopping behaviours, according to a survey of about 3,700 consumers in nine emerging and developed economies.

The survey, entitled “COVID-19 and E-commerce”, examined how the pandemic has changed the way consumers use e-commerce and digital solutions. It covered Brazil, China, Germany, Italy, the Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, South Africa, Switzerland and Turkey.

Following the pandemic, more than half of the survey’s respondents now shop online more frequently and rely on the internet more for news, health-related information and digital entertainment.

Consumers in emerging economies have made the greatest shift to online shopping, the survey shows.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards a more digital world. The changes we make now will have lasting effects as the world economy begins to recover,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi.

He said the acceleration of online shopping globally underscores the urgency of ensuring all countries can seize the opportunities offered by digitalization as the world moves from pandemic response to recovery.

Online purchases rise but consumer spending falls

The survey conducted by UNCTAD and Netcomm Suisse eCommerce Association, in collaboration with the Brazilian Network Information Center (NIC.br) and Inveon, shows that online purchases have increased by 6 to 10 percentage points across most product categories.

The biggest gainers are ICT/electronics, gardening/do-it-yourself, pharmaceuticals, education, furniture/household products and cosmetics/personal care categories (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percentage of online shoppers making at least one online purchase every two months

Source: UNCTAD and NetComm Suisse eCommerce Association

However, average online monthly spending per shopper has dropped markedly (Figure 2). Consumers in both emerging and developed economies have postponed larger expenditures, with those in emerging economies focusing more on essential products.

Tourism and travel sectors have suffered the strongest decline, with average spending per online shopper dropping by 75%.

Figure 2: Fall of average online spending per month since COVID-19, per product category

Source: UNCTAD and NetComm Suisse eCommerce Association

“During the pandemic, online consumption habits in Brazil have changed significantly, with a greater proportion of internet users buying essential products, such as food and beverages, cosmetics and medicines,” said Alexandre Barbosa, manager of the Regional Center of Studies on the Development of Information Society (Cetic.br) at the Brazilian Network Information Center (NIC.br).

Increases in online shopping during COVID-19 differ between countries, with the strongest rise noted in China and Turkey and the weakest in Switzerland and Germany, where more people were already engaging in e-commerce.

The survey found that women and people with tertiary education increased their online purchases more than others. People aged 25 to 44 reported a stronger increase compared with younger ones. In the case of Brazil, the increase was highest among the most vulnerable population and women.

Also, according to survey responses, small merchants in China were most equipped to sell their products online and those in South Africa were least prepared.

“Companies that put e-commerce at the heart of their business strategies are prepared for the post-COVID-19 era,” said Yomi Kastro, founder and CEO of Inveon. “There is an enormous opportunity for industries that are still more used to physical shopping, such as fast-moving consumer goods and pharmaceuticals.”

“In the post-COVID-19 world, the unparalleled growth of e-commerce will disrupt national and international retail frameworks,” said Carlo Terreni, President, NetComm Suisse eCommerce Association.

“This is why policymakers should adopt concrete measures to facilitate e-commerce adoption among small and medium enterprises, create specialized talent pools and attract international e-commerce investors.”

Digital giants grow stronger

According to the survey, the most used communication platforms are WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger, all owned by Facebook.

However, Zoom and Microsoft Teams have benefitted the most from increases in the use of video calling applications in workplaces.

In China, the top communication platforms are WeChat, DingTalk and Tencent Conference, the survey shows.

Changes are here to stay

The survey results suggest that changes in online activities are likely to outlast the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most respondents, especially those in China and Turkey, said they’d continue shopping online and focusing on essential products in the future.

They’d also continue to travel more locally, suggesting a lasting impact on international tourism.

Gross Domestic Product, Corporate Profits, and GDP by Industry (Annual Update), Second Quarter 2020

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 31.7 percent. The upward revision with the third estimate primarily reflected an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partly offset by downward revisions to exports and to nonresidential fixed investment (see "Updates to GDP" on page 3).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate

The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note.

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in residential investment primarily reflected decreases in new single-family housing.

Current-dollar GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.52 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA’s website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.4 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index decreased 1.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 0.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 33.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.5 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 32.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.7 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

Real GDP by Industry

Today’s release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP. Private goods-producing industries decreased 34.4 percent, private services-producing industries decreased 33.1 percent, and government decreased 16.6 percent (table 12). Overall, 20 of 22 industry groups contributed to the second-quarter decline in real GDP.

Within private goods-producing industries, the leading contributor to the decrease was durable goods manufacturing (led by motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts) (table 13).

Within private services-producing industries, the leading contributors to the decrease were accommodation and food services (led by food services and drinking places); health care and social assistance (led by ambulatory health care); transportation and warehousing (led by air transportation); arts, entertainment, and recreation; wholesale trade; and professional, scientific, and technical services. Offsetting these decreases was an increase in finance and insurance (led by the securities and banking industries).

The decrease in government was more than accounted for by a decrease in state and local government which was partly offset by an increase in federal government.

Gross Output by Industry

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—decreased 29.5 percent in the second quarter. This reflected a decrease of 32.6 percent for private services-producing industries, a decrease of 29.7 percent for private goods-producing industries, and a decrease of 7.6 percent for government (table 16). Overall, 20 of 22 industry groups contributed to the decrease in real gross output. Finance and insurance as well as federal government gross output increased.

Annual Update of the Industry Economic Accounts

The industry estimates released today reflect the results of the 2020 Annual Update of the Industry Economic Accounts. The update covers the first quarter of 2015 through the first quarter of 2020. Major improvements introduced with this update include:

• Incorporation of the results from the 2020 Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts. For details on methodology improvements, major source data incorporated, and results, see “The 2020 Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts” in the August Survey of Current Business.
• Incorporation of newly available and revised source data, including the Census Bureau’s Service Annual Survey (SAS), the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and the Department of Treasury’s Statistics of Income.
• Introduction of a new implicit price deflator for import duties recorded in wholesale trade that conceptually captures changes in both the price of the underlying duties as well as changes in duty rates to improve the deflation of customs duties.
• Adoption of several retail trade producer price indexes (PPIs) due to the discontinuation of various detailed retail trade industries in the BLS PPI program.
• Incorporation of new educational services output indicators based on SAS revenue and taxable and tax-exempt expense data.
• Adoption of new commercial fishing indicators for quarterly estimates from 2017 onward using BLS PPIs and Census Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey data due to the discontinuation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data on monthly commercial fishing landings and prices.

The full results of the annual update of the industry economic accounts, including updated annual supply-use tables, can be found on the BEA Web site. Additional information will be available in an article in the October 2020 issue of the Survey of Current Business.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $208.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $276.2 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $26.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $145.9 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $89.5 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $134.5 billion, and payments decreased $45.0 billion.

Updates to GDP

In the third estimate, the second-quarter change in real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the second estimate. PCE, residential investment, and state and local government spending were revised up. These upward revisions were partly offset by downward revisions to exports and to private nonresidential fixed investment (mainly intellectual property products). For more information, see the Technical Note and the "Additional Information" section that follows.

	Advance Estimate	Second Estimate	Third Estimate
	(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP	-32.9	-31.7	-31.4
Current-dollar GDP	-34.3	-33.3	-32.8
Real GDI	…	-33.1	-33.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI	…	-32.4	-32.5
Gross domestic purchases price index	-1.5	-1.5	-1.4
PCE price index	-1.9	-1.8	-1.6
PCE price index excluding food and energy	-1.1	-1.0	-0.8

U.S. International Transactions: Current Account Deficit Widens by 52.9 Percent in Second Quarter

 

Current Account Balance, Second Quarter

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $59.0 billion, or 52.9 percent, to $170.5 billion in the second quarter of 2020, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The revised first quarter deficit was $111.5 billion.

The second quarter deficit was 3.5 percent of current dollar gross domestic product, up from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

The $59.0 billion widening of the current account deficit in the second quarter mostly reflected an expanded deficit on goods and reduced surpluses on primary income and on services.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on Second Quarter 2020 International Transactions

All major categories of current account transactions declined in the second quarter of 2020 resulting in part from the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. In the financial account, the ending of some currency swaps between the U.S. Federal Reserve System and some central banks in Europe and Japan contributed to U.S. withdrawal of deposit assets and U.S. repayment of deposit liabilities. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on the statistics, see the technical note that accompanies this release.

Current Account Transactions

Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents decreased $209.3 billion, to $688.0 billion, in the second quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents decreased $150.2 billion, to $858.5 billion.

Trade in Goods 

Exports of goods decreased $114.6 billion, to $288.9 billion, mostly reflecting decreases in industrial supplies and materials, mainly petroleum and products; in capital goods, mainly civilian aircraft, engines, and parts; and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, mainly parts and engines and passenger cars. Imports of goods decreased $87.1 billion, to $508.2 billion, mostly reflecting decreases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, mainly parts and engines and passenger cars, and in industrial supplies and materials, mostly petroleum and products.

Trade in Services 

Exports of services decreased $46.3 billion, to $155.8 billion, and imports of services decreased $35.4 billion, to $101.3 billion. The decreases in both exports and imports mostly reflected decreases in travel, primarily other personal travel, and in transport, primarily air passenger transport.

Primary Income 

Receipts of primary income decreased $47.1 billion, to $209.4 billion, mostly reflecting decreases in portfolio investment income, primarily income on equity securities, and in direct investment income, primarily earnings. Payments of primary income decreased $24.3 billion, to $180.2 billion, reflecting decreases in all components, led by other investment income, primarily interest on loans and deposits.

Secondary Income

Receipts of secondary income decreased $1.2 billion, to $33.9 billion, mostly reflecting a decrease in private transfers, primarily private sector fines and penalties. Payments of secondary income decreased $3.4 billion, to $68.8 billion, reflecting decreases in private transfers, primarily private sector fines and penalties, and in general government transfers, primarily international cooperation.

Capital Account Transactions 

Capital transfer payments decreased $1.9 billion, to $1.1 billion, in the second quarter, mostly reflecting a decrease in investment grants.

Financial Account Transactions 

Net financial account transactions were −$82.6 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net U.S. borrowing from foreign residents.

Financial Assets 

Second quarter transactions decreased U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets by $147.6 billion. Transactions decreased portfolio investment assets by $29.8 billion, primarily equity securities, and other investment assets, mostly deposits, by $158.6 billion. Transactions in deposits included a net withdrawal by the U.S. Federal Reserve of $130.8 billion from deposits abroad. Transactions increased direct investment assets, primarily equity, by $35.9 billion, and reserve assets by $5.0 billion.

Liabilities 

Second quarter transactions decreased U.S. liabilities to foreign residents by $4.8 billion. Transactions decreased direct investment liabilities, mainly debt instruments, by $8.5 billion and other investment liabilities, mostly deposits, by $335.2 billion. Foreign banks withdrew $213.0 billion of their deposits in U.S. banks. Transactions increased portfolio investment liabilities, mainly short-term U.S. Treasury securities, by $339.0 billion.

Financial Derivatives 

Net transactions in financial derivatives were $60.3 billion in the second quarter, reflecting net lending to foreign residents.

Updates to First Quarter 2020 International Transactions Accounts Balances Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
	Preliminary estimate	Revised estimate
Current account balance	-104.2	−111.5
Goods balance	−192.3	−191.7
Services balance	73.3	65.3
Primary income balance	52.5	52.0
Secondary income balance	−37.6	−37.1
Net financial account transactions	−201.1	−143.1

*  *  *

Next release: December 18, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EST

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $63.6 billion in July, up $10.1 billion from $53.5 billion in June, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit

Deficit:	$63.6 Billion	+18.9%°
Exports:	$168.1 Billion	+8.1%°
Imports:	$231.7 Billion	+10.9%°
Next release: October 6, 2020 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 3, 2020

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on July 2020 International Trade in Goods and Services

Exports and imports increased in July but remained below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting the ongoing impact of COVID-19, as many businesses continued to operate at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders remained restricted. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis continue to monitor data quality and have determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information, see the frequently asked questions on goods from the Census Bureau and on services from BEA.

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

July exports were $168.1 billion, $12.6 billion more than June exports. July imports were $231.7 billion, $22.7 billion more than June imports.

The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $80.9 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.8 billion to $17.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $6.4 billion, or 1.8 percent, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $257.8 billion or 17.5 percent. Imports decreased $251.3 billion or 13.8 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $3.3 billion to $58.3 billion for the three months ending in July.

• Average exports increased $6.9 billion to $155.1 billion in July.
• Average imports increased $10.2 billion to $213.4 billion in July.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.9 billion from the three months ending in July 2019.

• Average exports decreased $55.7 billion from July 2019.
• Average imports decreased $48.8 billion from July 2019.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $12.3 billion to $115.5 billion in July.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $12.3 billion.

• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $3.8 billion.
  • Passenger cars increased $2.1 billion.
• Consumer goods increased $2.6 billion.
  • Gem diamonds increased $0.7 billion.
  • Artwork, antiques, and other collectibles increased $0.6 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.5 billion.
  • Crude oil increased $1.1 billion.
  • Other petroleum products increased $0.4 billion.
• Capital goods increased $2.5 billion.
  • Semiconductors increased $0.8 billion.
  • Civilian aircraft engines increased $0.5 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $52.6 billion in July.

• Other business services increased $0.3 billion.
• Transport increased $0.3 billion.
• Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.
• Travel decreased $0.4 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $21.5 billion to $196.4 billion in July.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $21.5 billion.

• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $7.7 billion.
  • Passenger cars increased $3.7 billion.
  • Automotive parts and accessories increased $2.5 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials increased $4.4 billion.
  • Finished metal shapes increased $1.3 billion.
  • Nonmonetary gold increased $0.9 billion.
  • Crude oil increased $0.7 billion.
• Capital goods increased $4.1 billion.
  • Civilian aircraft increased $1.7 billion.
  • Electric apparatus increased $0.4 billion.
  • Generators and accessories increased $0.4 billion.
• Consumer goods increased $3.5 billion.
  • Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.7 billion.
  • Cotton apparel and household goods increased $0.7 billion.
  • Furniture and household items increased $0.7 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $1.2 billion to $35.3 billion in July.

• Transport increased $0.5 billion.
• Travel increased $0.3 billion.
• Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.
• Insurance services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $10.1 billion to $90.5 billion in July.

• Real exports of goods increased $13.1 billion to $133.7 billion.
• Real imports of goods increased $23.2 billion to $224.2 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services were revised for January through June 2020 to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data.

Revisions to June exports

• Exports of goods were revised up $0.3 billion.
• Exports of services were revised down $3.1 billion.

Revisions to June imports

• Imports of goods were revised down $0.2 billion.
• Imports of services were revised up $0.2 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The July figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.9), OPEC ($1.5), Hong Kong ($1.4), Brazil ($0.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($13.1), Mexico ($11.5), Japan ($3.4), Germany ($3.0), Taiwan ($2.8), France ($2.5), India ($2.0), Italy ($1.8), South Korea ($1.5), Singapore ($1.0), and Canada ($0.5).

• The deficit with Mexico increased $2.5 billion to $11.5 billion in July. Exports increased $2.4 billion to $17.8 billion and imports increased $4.9 billion to $29.3 billion.
• The deficit with China increased $1.6 billion to $28.3 billion in July. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $9.5 billion and imports increased $1.7 billion to $37.8 billion.
• The surplus with South and Central America increased $1.2 billion to $2.9 billion in July. Exports increased $1.3 billion to $9.7 billion and imports increased $0.1 billion to $6.8 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, second-quarter figures are now available.

The second-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($13.0), OPEC ($6.4), United Kingdom ($4.0), Brazil ($3.4), Saudi Arabia ($1.9), Hong Kong ($1.6), Canada ($0.6), and Singapore ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($75.8), European Union ($24.8), Mexico ($15.0), Germany ($12.4), Japan ($6.9), Taiwan ($6.7), India ($6.4), Italy ($4.9), South Korea ($4.5), and France ($2.7).

• The deficit with China increased $21.4 billion to $75.8 billion in the second quarter. Exports increased $2.5 billion to $36.8 billion and imports increased $23.9 billion to $112.6 billion.
• The surplus with South and Central America decreased $8.1 billion to $13.0 billion in the second quarter. Exports decreased $21.9 billion to $46.4 billion and imports decreased $13.8 billion to $33.4 billion.
• The deficit with Mexico decreased $13.2 billion to $15.0 billion in the second quarter. Exports decreased $25.7 billion to $43.2 billion and imports decreased $38.9 billion to $58.2 billion.

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate

The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note.

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in residential investment primarily reflected a decrease in new single-family housing.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 33.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.5 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 32.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.7 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

Current-dollar GDP decreased 33.3 percent, or $2.07 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.49 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA’s website.

Updates to GDP

In the second estimate, real GDP decreased 31.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previous estimate issued last month. The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

	Advance Estimate	Second Estimate
	(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP	-32.9	-31.7
Current-dollar GDP	-34.3	-33.3
Real GDI	…	-33.1
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI	…	-32.4
Gross domestic purchases price index	-1.5	-1.5
PCE price index	-1.9	-1.8
PCE price index excluding food and energy	-1.1	-1.0

Updates to First-Quarter Wages and Salaries

In addition to presenting updated estimates for the second quarter, today's release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $103.6 billion in the first quarter of 2020, a downward revision of $3.4 billion. Real GDI decreased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, unrevised from the previously published estimate.

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $226.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $276.2 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $39.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $170.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $96.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $139.7 billion, and payments decreased $43.4 billion.

EXIM Board Votes to Notify Congress of Two Potential Transactions Totaling $400 Million to Support an Estimated 1,700 U.S. Jobs, and American Small Business Exports

Transactions Could Support Jobs in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas in the Oil and Gas Equipment and Services Industry  The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) Board of Directors today unanimously voted to notify the U.S. Congress, pursuant to the law, of its consideration of two transactions that would facilitate the authorization of a $350 million general facility and $50 million small business facility (SBF) for Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). If approved, the combined $400 million financing facilities would support an estimated 1,700 jobs in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas in the oilfield services industry, which has faced difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. EXIM received the applications from PEMEX for the facilities in March 2020.

The 2015-2019 lapse in EXIM’s Board quorum suspended the agency’s 76-year association with Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned oil company that conducts exploration, production, industrial processing and refining, logistics, and marketing. During the four-year absence of a Board quorum at EXIM, China sought to step into the breach to grow its influence in the region and pursued closer ties with Pemex, notwithstanding the company’s previous financings with EXIM.

These transactions will help fill in private sector financing gaps and provide certainty to an industry suffering in the current economic climate because of the global pandemic shutdown, as well as provide a valuable alternative to Chinese offerings. EXIM financing under these transactions also will facilitate the purchase of U.S. oil and gas equipment and services provided to approximately 21 oil and gas field projects.

“With today’s unanimous Board action to notify Congress of these potential transactions, EXIM is taking a step toward supporting more American jobs and small business exports and furthering our nation’s prosperity and security. In addition to being our neighbor, Mexico is the United States’ second-largest export market and third-largest trading market,” said EXIM President and Chairman of the Board Kimberly A. Reed. “In addition to supporting an estimated 1,700 jobs in 11 states across the United States, these authorizations would help counter financing competition from foreign export credit agencies, including from China, and reinforce to our allies and partners around the globe—including Mexico—that EXIM is open for business.”

“The EXIM Board of Directors has taken important steps to support American workers by voting to notify Congress of these transactions that would support 1,700 jobs nationwide,” said EXIM Board Member Spencer T. Bachus, III. “EXIM is fulfilling its purpose of by providing access to liquidity when commercial lenders are unable or unwilling to assume the risk.”

ABOUT EXIM:

EXIM is an independent federal agency that promotes and supports American jobs by providing competitive and necessary export credit to support sales of U.S. goods and services to international buyers. A robust EXIM can level the global playing field for U.S. exporters when they compete against foreign companies that receive support from their governments. EXIM also contributes to U.S. economic growth by helping to create and sustain hundreds of thousands of jobs in exporting businesses and their supply chains across the United States. In recent years, approximately 90 percent of the total number of the agency’s authorizations has directly supported small businesses. Since 1992, EXIM has generated more than $9 billion for the U.S. Treasury for repayment of U.S. debt.

Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2018

Worldwide employment by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) increased 1.4 percent to 43.0 million workers in 2018 from 42.4 million in 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the operations and finances of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates.

Employment in the United States by U.S. parents increased 2.1 percent to 28.6 million workers in 2018. U.S. parents accounted for 66.5 percent of worldwide employment by U.S. MNEs, up from 66.1 percent in 2017. Employment abroad by majority-owned foreign affiliates (MOFAs) of U.S. MNEs was nearly unchanged at 14.4 million workers and accounted for 33.5 percent of employment by U.S. MNEs worldwide.

U.S. parents accounted for 22.0 percent of total private industry employment in the United States. Employment by U.S. parents was largest in manufacturing and retail trade. Employment abroad by MOFAs was largest in China, the United Kingdom, Mexico, India, and Canada.

Worldwide current-dollar value added of U.S. MNEs increased 6.8 percent to $5.7 trillion. Value added by U.S. parents, a measure of their direct contribution to U.S. gross domestic product, increased 7.8 percent to $4.2 trillion, representing 23.3 percent of total U.S. private-industry value added. MOFA value added increased 4.1 percent to $1.5 trillion. Value added by MOFAs was largest in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Ireland.

Worldwide expenditures for property, plant, and equipment of U.S. MNEs increased 6.6 percent to $912.1 billion. Expenditures by U.S. parents accounted for $721.6 billion and MOFA expenditures for $190.4 billion.

Worldwide research and development expenditures of U.S. MNEs increased 6.9 percent to $381.4 billion. U.S. parents accounted for expenditures of $323.1 billion and MOFAs for $58.2 billion.

Additional statistics on the activities of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates including sales, balance sheet and income statement items, compensation of employees, trade in goods, and more are available on BEA’s website. More industry detail for U.S. parents and more industry and country detail for foreign affiliates are also available on the website.

U.S. MNE Activities in the First Year After the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates and changed the nominal U.S. domestic corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent beginning on January 1, 2018. BEA’s statistics cannot separate the effects of the TCJA from other prevalent economic conditions and company-specific factors in 2018, however, the statistics on the Activities of U.S. MNEs for 2018 in this release provide a first look at U.S. MNE activities in the year after the TCJA took effect.

U.S. parents grew faster than MOFAs in 2018 for several measures of their activities, including employment, value added, expenditures for property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), and research and development expenditures (R&D). This contrasts with the long-term trend of MOFA activities growth outpacing that of U.S. parents. In 2018, U.S. parents experienced above-average growth rates for these measures, while MOFAs grew at below-average rates.

Annual Percent Change in Activities of U.S. MNEs

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
*1998-2018, rates for benchmark years (1999, 2004, 2009, and 2014) not included

In addition to the measures of MNE activities featured in this release, BEA’s U.S. MNE statistics include U.S. income taxes paid by U.S. parents. According to the statistics, U.S. income taxes paid by U.S. parents decreased 6.4 percent to $218.9 billion in 2018 (see Table I. P1). The effective U.S. income tax rate paid by U.S. parents decreased to 13.1 percent in 2018, following an effective rate of 15.4 percent in 2017 and between 18.4 and 22.3 percent for the five previous years.

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that the goods and services deficit was $50.7 billion in June, down $4.1 billion from $54.8 billion in May, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit

Deficit:	$50.7 Billion	-7.5%°
Exports:	$158.3 Billion	+9.4%°
Imports:	$208.9 Billion	+4.7%°
Next release: September 3, 2020 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 5, 2020

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on May 2020 International Trade in Goods and Services

Exports and imports increased in June following monthly declines since March that were, in part, due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics for June because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have monitored data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on the statistics, see the frequently asked questions on goods from the Census Bureau and on services from BEA.

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

June exports were $158.3 billion, $13.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $208.9 billion, $9.5 billion more than May imports.

The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $4.0 billion to $72.2 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $21.5 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $23.1 billion, or 7.8 percent, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $199.1 billion or 15.7 percent. Imports decreased $222.3 billion or 14.2 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $2.8 billion to $51.8 billion for the three months ending in June.

• Average exports decreased $10.6 billion to $151.4 billion in June.
• Average imports decreased $7.9 billion to $203.1 billion in June.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.0 billion from the three months ending in June 2019.

• Average exports decreased $59.1 billion from June 2019.
• Average imports decreased $58.1 billion from June 2019.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $13.0 billion to $102.9 billion in June.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $12.9 billion.

• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $4.9 billion.
  • Automotive parts and accessories increased $1.8 billion.
  • Passenger cars increased $1.7 billion.
• Capital goods increased $3.8 billion.
  • Civilian aircraft increased $0.6 billion.
  • Other industrial machinery increased $0.6 billion
  • Telecommunications equipment increased $0.5 billion.
  • Electric apparatus increased $0.5 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.8 billion.
  • Fuel oil increased $0.8 billion.
  • Other petroleum products increased $0.5 billion.
  • Crude oil increased $0.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.6 billion to $55.4 billion in June.

• Transport increased $0.4 billion.
• Other business services increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $9.0 billion to $175.0 billion in June.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $8.5 billion.

• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $9.7 billion.
  • Passenger cars increased $4.1 billion.
  • Automotive parts and accessories increased $2.7 billion.
  • Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles increased $2.1 billion.
• Consumer goods increased $4.7 billion.
  • Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.1 billion.
  • Gem diamonds increased $0.7 billion.
  • Cotton apparel and household goods increased $0.5 billion.
  • Artwork and other collectibles increased $0.5 billion.
• Capital goods increased $2.2 billion.
  • Computers increased $0.8 billion.
  • Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
  • Electric apparatus increased $0.4 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials decreased $8.3 billion.
  • Nonmonetary gold decreased $5.9 billion.
  • Finished metal shapes decreased $2.9 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.5 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.5 billion to $33.9 billion in June.

• Transport increased $0.3 billion.
• Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
• Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $5.2 billion to $81.0 billion in June.

• Real exports of goods increased $13.1 billion to $120.0 billion.
• Real imports of goods increased $7.8 billion to $201.0 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($1.8), United Kingdom ($1.3), Hong Kong ($1.0), OPEC ($0.5), and Brazil ($0.4). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($26.7), European Union ($13.1), Mexico ($9.0), Germany ($3.8), Taiwan ($2.4), Italy ($2.1), South Korea ($1.9), Japan ($1.8), India ($1.7), France ($1.0), Saudi Arabia ($0.7), Singapore ($0.2), and Canada ($0.1).

• The deficit with Japan decreased $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion in June. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $4.9 billion and imports decreased $1.3 billion to $6.6 billion.
• The deficit with Singapore decreased $1.4 billion to $0.2 billion in June. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $2.1 billion and imports decreased $1.1 billion to $2.2 billion.
• The deficit with Mexico increased $4.8 billion to $9.0 billion in June. Exports increased $4.8 billion to $15.5 billion and imports increased $9.6 billion to $24.5 billion.

Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2019

The U.S. direct investment abroad position, or cumulative level of investment, increased $158.6 billion to $5.96 trillion at the end of 2019 from $5.80 trillion at the end of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The increase reflected a $95.7 billion increase in the position in Europe, primarily in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. By industry, manufacturing affiliates accounted for most of the increase.

The foreign direct investment in the United States position increased $331.2 billion to $4.46 trillion at the end of 2019 from $4.13 trillion at the end of 2018. The increase mainly reflected a $157.3 billion increase in the position from Asia and Pacific, primarily Japan. By industry, affiliates in manufacturing, finance and insurance, and wholesale trade accounted for the largest increases.

Continued Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. Direct Investment Abroad

The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates. In 2019, dividends decreased $454.5 billion to $396.3 billion from $850.9 billion in 2018, but were still more than twice the average annual dividends from the 10 years prior to the TCJA. By country, more than half of the dividends in 2019 were repatriated from affiliates in three countries: Ireland ($85.8 billion), the Netherlands ($74.3 billion), and Bermuda ($67.9 billion) (table 3). By industry, U.S. multinationals in chemical manufacturing ($99.6 billion) and computers and electronic products manufacturing ($92.5 billion) repatriated nearly half of all dividends in 2019 (table 4).

U.S. direct investment abroad (tables 1 – 6)

U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest in nearly every country, but their investment in affiliates in five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2019. The U.S. direct investment abroad position remained the largest in the Netherlands at $860.5 billion, followed by the United Kingdom ($851.4 billion) and Luxembourg ($766.1 billion). Canada ($402.3 billion) moved up one position from 2018 to be the fourth largest host economy, moving Ireland ($354.9 billion) into fifth.

By industry of the directly-owned foreign affiliate, investment was highly concentrated in holding companies, which accounted for nearly half of the overall position in 2019. Most holding company affiliates, which are owned by U.S. parents from a variety of industries, own other foreign affiliates that operate in a variety of industries. By industry of the U.S. parent, investment by manufacturing MNEs accounted for 51.9 percent of the position, followed by MNEs in finance and insurance (12.8 percent).

U.S. MNEs earned income of $532.7 billion in 2019 on their cumulative investment abroad, a 2.1 percent decrease from 2018.

Foreign direct investment in the United States (tables 7 – 10)

By country of the foreign parent, five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2019. Japan moved up one position from 2018 to be the top investing country in 2019 with a position of $619.3 billion, moving the United Kingdom ($505.1 billion) to second. Canada ($495.7 billion) and Netherlands ($487.1 billion) switched places as the third and fourth largest investing countries. Germany ($372.9 billion) remained the fifth largest investing country at the end of 2019.

By country of the ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), the top five countries in terms of position were Japan ($644.7 billion), Canada ($580.8 billion), Germany ($522.0 billion), the United Kingdom ($446.2 billion), and Ireland ($343.5 billion). On the UBO basis, investment from the Netherlands and Luxembourg was much lower than by country of foreign parent, indicating that much of the investment from foreign parents in these countries was ultimately owned by investors in other countries.

Foreign direct investment in the United States was concentrated in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which accounted for 40.1 percent of the position. There was also sizable investment in finance and insurance (12.3 percent) and wholesale trade (10.5 percent).

Foreign MNEs earned income of $208.1 billion in 2019 on their cumulative investment in the United States, a 0.8 percent increase from 2018.

BEA Announcement: Trade in Services Tables Now Available

Please select a table to display or download all data for tables. You may also view a definition of International Services and geographic area definitions.

Legend: (A) Annual; (MNEs) Multinational Enterprises; (MOFAs) Majority-owned foreign affiliates; (MOUSAs) Majority-owned U.S. affiliates; (UBO) Ultimate beneficial owner; (ICT) Information and Communications Technology

Table 1.1. Services Supplied to Foreign and U.S. Persons Through Trade and Through Affiliates ((A) (1986-2019))

U.S. Trade in Services

Table 2.1. U.S. Trade in Services, by Type of Service ((A) (1999-2019))

Table 2.2. U.S. Trade in Services, by Type of Service and by Country or Affiliation ((A) (1999-2019))

Table 2.3. U.S. Trade in Services, by Country or Affiliation and by Type of Service ((A) (1999-2019))

Table 3.1. U.S. Trade in ICT and Potentially ICT-Enabled Services, by Type of Service ((A) (1999-2019))

Table 3.2. U.S. Trade in ICT and Potentially ICT-Enabled Services, by Type of Service and by Affiliation ((A) (1999-2019))

Table 3.3. U.S. Trade in ICT and Potentially ICT-Enabled Services, by Country or Affiliation ((A) (2006-2019))

Services Supplied Through Affiliates

Table 4.1. Services Supplied to Foreign Persons by U.S. MNEs Through Their MOFAs, by Industry of Affiliate and by Country of Affiliate ((A) (2004-2017))

Table 4.2. Services Supplied to Foreign Persons by U.S. MNEs Through Their MOFAs, by Country of Affiliate and by Destination ((A) (2004-2017))

Table 4.3. Services Supplied to Foreign Persons by U.S. MNEs Through Their MOFAs, by Industry of Affiliate and by Destination ((A) (2009-2017))

Table 4.4. Services Supplied to Foreign Persons by U.S. MNEs Through Their MOFAs, by Country of Affiliate and by Industry of Affiliate ((A) (2009,2013-2017))

Table 5.1. Services Supplied to U.S. Persons by Foreign MNEs Through Their MOUSAs, by Industry of Affiliate and by Country of UBO ((A) (2002-2017))

Table 5.2. Services Supplied to U.S. Persons by Foreign MNEs Through Their MOUSAs, by Country of UBO ((A) (2002-2017))

Table 5.3. Services Supplied to U.S. Persons by Foreign MNEs Through Their MOUSAs, by Industry of Affiliate ((A) (2002-2017))

Table 5.4. Services Supplied to U.S. Persons by Foreign MNEs Through Their MOUSAs, by Country of UBO and by Industry of Affiliate ((A) (2013-2017))

Characteristics of Firms that Trade Services

Table 6.1. U.S. Trade in Selected Services, by Major Industry and by Service Type ((A) (2008-2017))

Table 6.2. U.S. Trade in Selected Services, by Service Type and by Firm Type ((A) (2008-2017))

Teleworking is Not Working for the Poor, the Young, and the Women

By Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris, and Salma Khalid

The COVID-19 pandemic is devastating labor markets across the world. Tens of millions of workers lost their jobs, millions more out of the labor force altogether, and many occupations face an uncertain future. Social distancing measures threaten jobs requiring physical presence at the workplace or face-to-face interactions. Those unable to work remotely, unless deemed essential, face a significantly higher risk of reductions in hours or pay, temporary furloughs, or permanent layoffs. What types of jobs and workers are most at risk? Not surprisingly, the costs have fallen most heavily on those who are least able to bear them: the poor and the young in the lowest-paid jobs.

In a new paper Who will Bear the Brunt of Lockdown Policies? Evidence from Tele-workability Measures Across Countries, we investigate the feasibility to work from home in a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. We estimate that nearly 100 million workers in 35 advanced and emerging countries (out of 189 IMF members) could be at high risk because they are unable to do their jobs remotely. This is equivalent to 15 percent of their workforce, on average. But there are important differences across countries and workers.

Summary: Lockdowns imposed around the world to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are having a differential impact on economic activity and jobs. This paper presents a new index of the feasibility to work from home to investigate what types of jobs are most at risk. We estimate that over 97.3 million workers, equivalent to about 15 percent of the workforce, are at high risk of layoffs and furlough across the 35 advanced and emerging countries in our sample. Workers least likely to work remotely tend to be young, without a college education, working for non-standard contracts, employed in smaller firms, and those at the bottom of the earnings distribution, suggesting that the pandemic could exacerbate inequality. Crosscountry heterogeneity in the ability to work remotely reflects differential access to and use of technology, sectoral mix, and labor market selection. Policies should account for demographic and distributional considerations both during the crisis and in its aftermath.

Series: Working Paper No. 20/88

The nature of jobs in each country

Most studies measuring the feasibility of working from home follow job definitions used in the United States. But the same occupations in other countries may differ in the face-to-face interactions required, the technology intensity of the production process, or even access to digital infrastructure. To reflect that, the work-from-home feasibility index that we built uses the tasks actually performed within each country, according to surveys compiled by the OECD for 35 countries.

We found significant differences across countries even for the same occupations. It is much easier to telework in Norway and Singapore than in Turkey, Chile, Mexico, Ecuador, and Peru, simply because more than half the households in most emerging and developing countries don’t even have a computer at home.

How to protect the most vulnerable?

The pandemic is likely to change how work is done in many sectors. Consumers may rely more on e-commerce, to the detriment of retail jobs; and may order more takeout, reducing the labor market for restaurant workers.

What can governments do? They can focus on assisting the affected workers and their families by broadening social insurance and safety nets to cushion against income and employment loss. Wage subsidies and public-works programs can help them regain their livelihoods during the recovery.

To reduce inequality and give people better prospects, governments need to strengthen education and training to better prepare workers for the jobs of the future. Lifelong learning also means bolstering access to schooling and skills training to help workers displaced by economic shocks like COVID-19.

This crisis has clearly shown that being able to get online was a crucial determinant to people’s ability to continue engaging in the workplace. Investing in digital infrastructure and closing the digital divide will allow disadvantaged groups to participate meaningfully in the future economy.

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New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2019

Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $194.7 billion (preliminary) in 2019. Expenditures were down 37.7 percent from $312.5 billion (revised) in 2018 and below the annual average of $333.0 billion for 2014–2018. As in previous years, acquisitions of existing businesses accounted for a large majority of total expenditures.

In 2019, expenditures for acquisitions were $190.7 billion, expenditures to establish new U.S. businesses were $2.5 billion, and expenditures to expand existing foreign-owned businesses were $1.5 billion. Planned total expenditures, which include both first year and planned future expenditures, were $203.6 billion.

Expenditures by industry, country, and state in 2019

By industry, expenditures for new direct investment were largest in manufacturing, at $78.2 billion, accounting for 40.2 percent of total expenditures. Within manufacturing, expenditures were largest in chemical manufacturing ($41.8 billion), primarily pharmaceuticals and medicines. There were also notable expenditures in transportation and warehousing ($21.3 billion) and publishing industries ($14.5 billion).

By country of ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), the largest investing country was the United Kingdom, with expenditures of $40.4 billion. Canada ($35.7 billion) was the second largest investing country, followed by Germany ($21.6 billion) and Japan ($17.8 billion). By region, Europe contributed over half of new investment in 2019.

By U.S. state, California received the largest investment, with expenditures of $22.7 billion, followed by Pennsylvania ($21.1 billion) and Texas ($20.9 billion).

Greenfield expenditures

Greenfield investment expenditures—expenditures to either establish a new U.S. business or to expand an existing foreign-owned U.S. business—were $4.0 billion in 2019. Total planned expenditures until completion for greenfield investment initiated in 2019, which include both first year and future expenditures, were $12.9 billion.

By U.S. industry, greenfield expenditures in 2019 were largest in chemical manufacturing ($0.6 billion) and utilities ($0.5 billion). By country of UBO, Japan ($1.1 billion) and Canada ($1.0 billion) had the largest expenditures. By U.S. state, Delaware received the highest level of greenfield investment ($0.7 billion), followed by Texas ($0.6 billion).

Employment by newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses

In 2019, employment at newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses in the United States was 210,600 employees. Current employment of acquired enterprises was 208,100. Total planned employment, which includes the current employment of acquired enterprises, the planned employment of newly established business enterprises when fully operational, and the planned employment associated with expansions, was 223,400.

By industry, construction accounted for the largest number of employees (18,800), followed by food manufacturing (17,600). By country of UBO, the United Kingdom Islands in the Caribbean, which include the British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands, accounted for the largest number of employees (35,400), followed by the United Kingdom (29,100) and Canada (28,700).

By U.S. state, Minnesota had the largest employment (39,800), followed by Texas (29,000) and California (21,800). Employment for an acquired entity that operated in multiple states is attributed to the state in which it had the greatest number of employees.

Updates to 2018 Expenditures for New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
Billions of dollars

	Previously Published Estimate	Revised Estimate
First-year expenditures	296.4	312.5
U.S. businesses acquired	287.3	303.3
U.S. businesses established	5.3	4.9
U.S. businesses expanded	3.8	4.2
Planned total expenditures	318.1	340.0
U.S. businesses acquired	287.3	303.3
U.S. businesses established	20.3	22.7
U.S. businesses expanded	10.5	13.9

Next release: July 2021
New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2020

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $54.6 billion in May, up $4.8 billion from $49.8 billion in April, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit

Deficit:	$54.6 Billion	+9.7%°
Exports:	$144.5 Billion	-4.4%°
Imports:	$199.1 Billion	-0.9%°
Next release: August 5, 2020 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2, 2020

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on May 2020 International Trade in Goods and Services

The declines in exports and imports that continued in May were, in part, due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics for May because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have monitored data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on the statistics, see the frequently asked questions on goods from the Census Bureau and on services from BEA.

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

May exports were $144.5 billion, $6.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $199.1 billion, $1.8 billion less than April imports.

The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.2 billion to $76.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $21.5 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $22.3 billion, or 9.1 percent, from the same period in 2019. Exports decreased $148.3 billion or 14.0 percent. Imports decreased $170.6 billion or 13.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $6.6 billion to $48.9 billion for the three months ending in May.

• Average exports decreased $22.4 billion to $161.9 billion in May.
• Average imports decreased $15.8 billion to $210.8 billion in May.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $0.9 billion from the three months ending in May 2019.

• Average exports decreased $49.8 billion from May 2019.
• Average imports decreased $50.7 billion from May 2019.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $5.5 billion to $90.0 billion in May.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $5.6 billion.

• Industrial supplies and materials decreased $3.9 billion.
  • Other petroleum products decreased $1.6 billion.
  • Crude oil decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Fuel oil decreased $0.6 billion.
• Capital goods decreased $0.9 billion.
  • Semiconductors decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Computer accessories decreased $0.3 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $1.1 billion to $54.5 billion in May.

• Other business services decreased $0.6 billion.
• Financial services decreased $0.2 billion.
• Charges for the use of intellectual property decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $1.3 billion to $166.0 billion in May.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $1.0 billion.

• Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $4.4 billion.
  • Passenger cars decreased $3.0 billion.
  • Automotive parts and accessories decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles decreased $0.4 billion.
• Capital goods decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Computers decreased $0.4 billion.
• Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.3 billion.
  • Nonmonetary gold increased $1.2 billion.
  • Finished metal shapes increased $1.2 billion.
• Consumer goods increased $1.9 billion.
  • Other textile apparel and household goods increased $1.8 billion.
  • Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.2 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.3 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.5 billion to $33.1 billion in May.

• Charges for the use of intellectual property decreased $0.2 billion.
• Other business services decreased $0.1 billion.
• Travel decreased $0.1 billion.
• Financial services decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $6.0 billion to $86.5 billion in May.

• Real exports of goods decreased $6.7 billion to $106.8 billion.
• Real imports of goods decreased $0.7 billion to $193.3 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($1.9), Brazil ($0.4), OPEC ($0.4), United Kingdom ($0.2), and Hong Kong ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($27.9), European Union ($12.7), Mexico ($4.2), Germany ($3.9), Japan ($3.2), Taiwan ($2.6), South Korea ($1.9), Singapore ($1.6), Italy ($1.4), Canada ($1.2), France ($1.1), India ($0.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).

• The deficit with China increased $1.9 billion to $27.9 billion in May. Exports increased $0.7 billion to $10.0 billion and imports increased $2.7 billion to $37.9 billion.
• The surplus with members of OPEC decreased $1.0 billion to $0.4 billion in May. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $2.4 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $2.1 billion.
• The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.6 billion to $12.7 billion in May. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $14.9 billion and imports decreased $2.6 billion to $27.6 billion.

IMF's State of the Global Economy as of July 2, 2020

Last week we released our World Economic Outlook Update for June, which downgraded the April forecast—pegging global growth at -4.9 percent this year, down from -3 percent in April. Next year’s growth is forecast to be 5.4 percent.  Discussing these figures and more, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke to Financial Times Africa Editor David Pilling in a new 23-min video interview about the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis, how Africa is in danger after a period of growth, and how the IMF is supporting countries through this crisis. For a look at the global outlook for the business community, take some time and watch MD Georgieva's recent 45-min conversation with the Harvard Business Review. And for a more detailed discussion on how COVID-19 has upended the global economy across the board, watch a new 50-min interview with Chief Economist Gita Gopinath—hosted earlier this week—by the Center for Strategic & International Studies. OUTLOOK FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Latin America and the Caribbean have become the new COVID-19 global epicenter. The human cost has been tragic, with over 100,000 lives lost. The economic toll has also been steep. Our World Economic Outlook Update now estimates the region to shrink by 9.4 percent in 2020, four percentage points worse than the April projection and the worst recession on record. A mild recovery to +3.7 percent is projected in 2021.  The rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths per capita are approaching those in Europe and the United States, with the total number of cases accounting for about 25 percent of the worldwide total. Against this backdrop, countries should be very cautious when considering reopening their economies and allow science and data to guide the process. Indeed, many countries in the region have high levels of informality and low preparedness to handle new outbreaks, like a high occupancy of intensive care unit beds and low testing and tracing capacity. Click here to read the full blog by Director of the Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner, which includes several charts visualizing the impact of COVID-19 on the region and three policy priorities for how best to proceed. There are also specific insights with respect to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Central America, Panama & the Dominican Republic, as well as the Caribbean. ASIA'S REOPENING AND RECOVERY For the first time in living memory, Asia’s growth is expected to contract by 1.6 percent—a downgrade to the April projection of zero growth. While Asia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 was better than projected in the April World Economic Outlook—partly owing to early stabilization of the virus in some—projections for 2020 have been revised down for most of the countries in the region due to weaker global conditions and more protracted containment measures in several emerging economies. In the absence of a second wave of infections and with unprecedented policy stimulus to support the recovery, growth in Asia is projected to rebound strongly to 6.6 percent in 2021. But even with this fast pickup in economic activity, output losses due to COVID-19 are likely to persist. We project Asia’s economic output in 2022 to be about 5 percent lower compared with the level predicted before the crisis; and this gap will be much larger if we exclude China, where economic activity has already started to rebound. Our projections for 2021 and beyond assume a strong rebound in private demand; however, this may be optimistic for several reasons: slower growth in trade, longer than expected lockdowns, rising inequality, and both weak balance sheets and geopolitical tensions. Click here to read the full blog by Director of the Asia and Pacific Department Chang Yong Rhee, which also details key policies that would support the region's recovery. LESSONS FROM VIETNAM ON CONTAINING COVID-19 At the outset, it was expected to be an uphill battle. Vietnam was regarded as highly vulnerable, given its long border and extensive trade with China, densely populated urban areas, and limited healthcare infrastructure. But Vietnam’s cost-effective containment strategy resulted in only 352 confirmed cases and no deaths in a population of almost 100 million people. The country was among the first to lift virtually all domestic containment measures. Vietnam’s successful strategy was informed by its experience with previous outbreaks, like the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, in 2003. Early on, the Prime Minister prioritized health above economic concerns. The strategy was swiftly deployed with the help of the military, public security services, and grass-root organizations, which speaks to some features unique to Vietnam. Effective and transparent communications won the population’s buy-in, and contains broader lessons for developing countries. Click here to read more in IMF Country Focus. Have your headphones? Listen to a new 14-minute podcast with IMF economists Era Dabla-Norris and Anne-Marie Gulde of the Asia Pacific Department on why Vietnam's approach should allow for a quicker rebound. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA’S SHARPEST ECONOMIC DECLINE SINCE THE 1970'S In our latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, Real GDP is now forecast to contract by 3.2 percent, double the contraction predicted in April. On average, per capita incomes across the region will fall by 5.5 percent in 2020, back to levels last seen nearly a decade ago. This will likely lead to more poverty and widen income inequality as lockdowns disproportionally affect informal sector workers and small- and medium-sized companies in the services sectors. Regional policies should remain focused on safeguarding public health, supporting people and businesses hardest hit by the crisis, and facilitating the recovery. For example, shortly after the region’s 100th case on March 15, many country authorities proactively implemented strict containment measures to control the COVID-19 outbreak. These measures led to more people staying home and reducing daily movements to areas with services and recreational facilities, including the informal economy. The growth of new cases has slowed somewhat since, and a number of countries have cautiously eased some of their containment measures. But region-wide, the pandemic is still in its exponential phase with more than a quarter of a million confirmed cases, and infection cases doubling every 2-3 weeks. Click here to view six charts that tell a visual story of how COVID-19 has impacted sub-Saharan Africa. For more, you can download the report, read the press release and watch the 30-min Q&A press conference. If you're wondering what impact COVID-19 has had specifically on Africa's energy sector, I would encourage you to read this speech from earlier this week by Director of the African Department Abebe Aemro Selassie to the IEA Africa Ministerial Roundtable. OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA The Gulf states' economies could contract by 7.6 percent this year in their deepest decline in decades, as COVID-19 and low oil prices take their toll. The new IMF projection for the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is dramatically worse than the 2.7 percent contraction we forecast just two months ago. Oil revenues in the GCC, which supply nearly a fifth of the world's crude, are also expected to decline by $200 billion in 2020, said Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department Jihad Azour in a virtual economic forum on the prospects for recovery in the region. However, Azour predicted a faster rebound in 2021 as Gulf economies grow by 2.5 percent—a full 10 percent turnaround—but that the sharp drop in oil prices and the impact of the pandemic would lead to more debt in GCC economies. Last week, the IMF projected the Saudi economy, the largest in the region, would shrink by 6.8 percent—the lowest growth in more than three decades. A more detailed regional economic outlook will be released in the coming weeks. If you're wondering about the outlook for Central Asia given the crisis, watch this just-released 15-min interview between Jihad Azour with Lyazzat Shatayeva of Kazakh TV. A NEW INDEX OF DIGITAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION The pandemic could be a game changer for digital financial services. Low-income households and small firms can benefit greatly from advances in mobile money, fintech services, and online banking. Financial inclusion as a result of digital financial services can also boost economic growth. While the pandemic is set to increase use of these services, it has also posed challenges for the growth of the industry’s smaller players and highlighted unequal access to digital infrastructure. Many countries (for example, Liberia, Ghana, Kenya, Kuwait, Myanmar, Paraguay and Portugal) are supporting this shift with measures such as lowering fees and increasing limits on mobile money transactions. Moreover, in a new study, we introduce a new index of digital financial inclusion that measures the progress in 52 emerging market and developing economies. We found that digitalization increased financial inclusion between 2014 and 2017, even where financial inclusion through traditional banking services was declining. This is likely to have progressed more since then. For more details, click here to read the full blog by the IMF's Ulric Eriksson von Allmen, Purva Khera, Sumiko Ogawa, and Ratna Sahay.  Still, Internet usage remains a luxury: half of the world’s population does not have access to the Internet, either through a mobile device or through fixed line broadband. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by many in emerging and developing economies in Asia, are among those with the lowest access to the Internet despite being world leaders in mobile money transactions. There is also a large variation in Internet connectivity by firms in sub-Saharan Africa—only about 60 percent of businesses use email for business compared to about 85 percent in Europe and Central Asia. For more, view our latest Chart of the Week on Internet inequality. REMITTANCES TO FALL BY $100 BILLION IN 2020 COVID-19 is crippling the economies of rich and poor countries alike. Yet for many low-income and fragile states, the economic shock will be magnified by the loss of remittances, which represent a lifeline that supports households as well as provides much-needed tax revenue. In a new article for F&D, Deputy Managing Director Antoinette Sayeh and Assistant Director in the Institute for Capacity Development Ralph Chami dig deeper into how the pandemic threatens to dry up this vital source of income, and what measures can be taken to tackle this challenge. As of 2018, remittance flows to low-income and fragile states reached $350 billion, surpassing foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and foreign aid as the single most important source of income from abroad. A drop in remittance flows is likely to heighten economic, fiscal, and social pressures on governments of these countries already struggling to cope even in normal times. And according to the World Bank, remittance flows are expected to drop by about $100 billion in 2020, which represents roughly a 20 percent drop from their 2019 level.  Read the full article here with plenty of charts. Prefer the PDF? Click here to download. And if you're in a listening mood, click here for a new 18-min podcast with author Ralph Chami. IMF AND COVID-19 We just updated our global policy tracker to help our member countries be more aware of the experiences of others in combating COVID-19, and we are regularly updating our lending tracker, which visualizes the latest emergency financial assistance and debt relief to member countries approved by the IMF’s Executive Board. To date, 72 countries will have been approved for emergency financing, totaling about US$25.3 billion. Looking for our latest Q&A about the IMF's response to COVID-19? Click here. We are also continually producing a special series of notes—around 50 to date—by IMF experts to help members address the economic effects of COVID-19 on a range of topics including fiscal, legal, statistical, tax and more. The most recent additions include a focus on food markets during COVID-19, budgeting in crisis, and digital financial services and the pandemic.  FINAL THOUGHT Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read. We really appreciate your time. If you have any questions, comments or feedback of any kind, please do write me a note. And if you're on LinkedIn, subscribe to this newsletter in a more  visual format. Have a safe weekend,

Rahim Kanani Editor, IMF Weekend Read rkanani@IMF.org / LinkedIn P.S. If you're a young person interested in learning more about the IMF, check out our new page dedicated to youth dialogue and engagement. You'll find articles, videos and other resources on climate change, fintech, gender equality and more, as well as economic explainers on issues like social spending and corruption.

U.S. International Investment Position, First Quarter 2020, Year 2019, and Annual Update

First Quarter 2020

The U.S. net international investment position, the difference between U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities, was –$12.06 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2020, according to statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Assets totaled $26.77 trillion and liabilities were $38.82 trillion.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, the net investment position was –$11.05 trillion (Table 1).

The –$1.01 trillion change in the net investment position from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2020 came from net financial transactions of –$184.2 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange rate changes, of –$822.8 billion (Table A).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on First Quarter 2020 International Investment Position

In the first quarter of 2020, the declines in U.S. assets and liabilities reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The disruption to global production and financial markets led to sharp declines in global stock prices, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against most foreign currencies, and a shortage of U.S. dollar liquidity in foreign money markets. The stock price declines and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar are reflected in price changes and exchange rate changes. Currency swap transactions between the U.S. Federal Reserve System and several foreign central banks to alleviate the shortage of U.S. dollar liquidity contributed to record levels of U.S. acquisition of assets and U.S. incurrence of liabilities. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the statistics for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information on the currency swaps, see the technical note that accompanied the June 19 international transactions accounts news release.

Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment Position
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

	Position, 2019 Q4	Change in position in 2020 Q1			Position, 2020 Q1
		Total	Attributable to:
			Financial transactions	Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position	-11,050.5	-1,007.0	-184.2	-822.8	-12,057.5
Net position excluding financial derivatives	-11,070.7	-1,022.1	-162.4	-859.8	-12,092.8
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net	20.2	15.2	-21.8	37.0	35.3
U.S. assets	29,152.8	-2,385.7	(2)	(2)	26,767.1
Assets excluding financial derivatives	27,362.4	-3,595.8	739.9	-4,335.7	23,766.6
Financial derivatives other than reserves	1,790.4	1,210.1	(2)	(2)	3,000.5
U.S. liabilities	40,203.3	-1,378.7	(2)	(2)	38,824.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives	38,433.0	-2,573.6	902.3	-3,475.9	35,859.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves	1,770.3	1,194.9	(2)	(2)	2,965.2
1. Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics (see table B and table 2 in this release). 2. Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. assets decreased by $2.39 trillion, to a total of $26.77 trillion, at the end of the first quarter, mostly reflecting decreases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by increases in financial derivatives and in other investment assets. Portfolio investment assets decreased by $2.39 trillion, to $10.99 trillion, and direct investment assets decreased by $1.82 trillion, to $6.98 trillion, reflecting sharp decreases in foreign stock prices and the depreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that lowered the value of these assets in dollar terms. These large changes in asset prices reflected a sudden decrease in production and earnings as global economic activity was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

U.S. liabilities decreased by $1.38 trillion, to a total of $38.82 trillion, at the end of the first quarter, mostly reflecting decreases in direct investment and portfolio investment liabilities that were partly offset by increases in financial derivatives and in other investment liabilities. Direct investment liabilities decreased by $1.78 trillion, to $8.77 trillion, and portfolio investment liabilities decreased by $1.61 trillion, to $19.78 trillion, mostly reflecting decreases in U.S. stock prices amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Annual Update for Year 2019

The U.S. net international investment position was –$11.05 trillion at the end of 2019 compared to –$9.67 trillion at the end of 2018 (Table 2).

The –$1.38 trillion change in the net investment position from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019 came from net financial transactions of –$395.5 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange rate changes, of –$980.5 billion (Table B).

U.S. assets increased by $3.92 trillion, to a total of $29.15 trillion, at the end of 2019, reflecting increases in all major categories of assets, particularly in portfolio investment and direct investment assets. Portfolio investment assets increased by $1.94 trillion, to $13.38 trillion, and direct investment assets increased by $1.35 trillion, to $8.80 trillion, driven mainly by foreign stock price increases.

U.S. liabilities increased by $5.30 trillion, to a total of $40.20 trillion, at the end of 2019, reflecting increases in all major categories of liabilities, particularly in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities. Portfolio investment liabilities increased by $2.55 trillion, to $21.39 trillion, and direct investment liabilities increased by $2.15 trillion, to $10.55 trillion, driven mainly by U.S. stock price increases.

Table B. Annual Change in the U.S. Net International Investment Position
Billions of dollars

	Position, 2018	Change in position in 2019						Position, 2019
		Total	Attributable to:
			Financial transactions	Other changes in position
				Total	Price changes	Exchange rate changes	Changes in volume and valuation n.i.e
U.S. net international investment position	-9,674.4	-1,376.1	-395.5	-980.5	(1)	(1)	(1)	-11,050.5
Net position excl. derivatives	-9,716.5	-1,354.2	-357.2	-997.0	-1,104.9	119.5	-11.5	-11,070.7
Financial derivatives, net	42.0	-21.9	-38.3	16.4	(1)	(1)	(1)	20.2
U.S. assets	25,233.8	3,919.0	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	29,152.8
Assets excl. derivatives	23,784.2	3,578.2	440.8	3,137.4	3,080.1	128.3	-71.0	27,362.4
Financial derivatives	1,449.6	340.8	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	1,790.4
U.S. liabilities	34,908.2	5,295.1	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	40,203.3
Liabilities excl. derivatives	33,500.7	4,932.4	798.0	4,134.4	4,185.0	8.8	-59.4	38,433.0
Financial derivatives	1,407.5	362.7	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	1,770.3
1. Data are not separately available for price changes, exchange rate changes, and changes in volume and valuation n.i.e. (not included elsewhere). 2. Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.