International Financial Law Prof Blog

Editor: William Byrnes
Texas A&M University
School of Law

Thursday, August 8, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $55.2 Billion -0.3%°
Exports: $206.3 Billion -2.1%°
Imports: $261.5 Billion -1.7%°

Next release: September 4, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2, 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

June exports were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion less than May exports. June imports were $261.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports.

The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.8 billion to $75.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $20.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $23.2 billion, or 7.9 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $0.5 billion or less than 0.1 percent. Imports increased $23.8 billion or 1.5 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion to $53.9 billion for the three months ending in June.

  • Average exports decreased $1.7 billion to $207.8 billion in June.
  • Average imports decreased $0.6 billion to $261.7 billion in June.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $7.2 billion from the three months ending in June 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $3.3 billion from June 2018.
  • Average imports increased $4.0 billion from June 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $3.9 billion to $137.1 billion in June.

   Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.8 billion.

  • Consumer goods decreased $1.9 billion.
    • Gem diamonds decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Jewelry decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $1.2 billion.
    • Computer accessories decreased $0.4 billion.
    • Other industrial machinery decreased $0.2 billion.
    • Telecommunications equipment decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $0.5 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.5 billion to $69.2 billion in June.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $4.7 billion to $212.3 billion in June.

   Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.4 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $3.2 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $1.0 billion.
    • Fuel oil decreased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.6 billion.

   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $49.2 billion in June, reflecting small (less than $50 million) changes in all major service categories.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $0.3 billion to $86.1 billion in June.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $2.8 billion to $148.1 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $3.1 billion to $234.2 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to May exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.1 billion.

Revisions to May imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised down $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.8), Hong Kong ($2.3), Brazil ($1.3), and United Kingdom ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($15.9), Mexico ($9.2), Japan ($6.2), Germany ($5.2), Canada ($3.3), Italy ($2.6), France ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.7), India ($1.6), South Korea ($1.4), OPEC ($0.3), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.1).

  • The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.0 billion to $15.9 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.5 billion to $26.7 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $42.7 billion.
  • The surplus with Brazil increased $0.8 billion to $1.3 billion in June. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $3.9 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $2.6 billion.
  • The balance with Singapore shifted from a surplus of $0.6 billion to a deficit of $0.1 billion in June. Exports decreased $0.2 billion to $2.5 billion and imports increased $0.4 billion to $2.6 billion.

Next release: September 4, 2019: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2019

August 8, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, August 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 29, 2019.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q2 2019 Adv

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $239.1 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Personal Income (table 8)

Current-dollar personal income increased $244.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $269.8 billion in the first quarter. Decelerations in compensation and in personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by an upturn in personal income receipts on assets and a deceleration in contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction in the calculation of personal income).

Disposable personal income increased $193.4 billion, or 4.9 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.

Personal saving was $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.37 trillion in the first quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 8.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with 8.5 percent in the first quarter.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the source data and key assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The update covers the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019.

With today's release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA's Interactive Data application on the BEA Web site (www.bea.gov). See "Information on Updates to the National Income and Product Accounts" for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results for 2014 through 2018, which includes a discussion of  methodology changes. A table showing the major current‑dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2019 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today's release, are found in BEA's archives.

Updates for the first quarter of 2019

For the first quarter of 2019, real GDP is estimated to have increased 3.1 percent (table 1), the same as previously published. Downward revisions to exports, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were offset by upward revisions to PCE and federal government spending.

For the period of expansion from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, the same as previously published.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have increased 1.0 percent.

  First Quarter 2019
  Previous Estimate Revised
  Percent change from preceding quarter
Real GDP 3.1 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.9
Real GDI 1.0 3.2
Average of Real GDP and GDI 2.1 3.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.8
PCE price index 0.5 0.4

*         *         *

Next release, August 29, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

August 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Gross Domestic Product by State, First Quarter 2019

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2019, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the first quarter ranged from 5.2 percent in West Virginia to 1.2 percent in Hawaii (table 1).

Chart: Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2018:Q4-2019:Q1

Highlights

  • Finance and insurance, retail trade, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). These industries increased 9.5 percent, 11.9 percent, and 6.2 percent, respectively (GDP by Industry table 1), and contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Mining for the nation increased 26.5 percent, after increasing 38.0 percent in the fourth quarter. This industry was the leading contributor to growth in several states, including the three fastest growing states of West Virginia, Texas, and New Mexico.
  • The government sector decreased 1.1 percent nationally and slowed growth in most states, especially in the District of Columbia. The decrease was partly due to the partial federal government shutdown in January 2019.

August 4, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

USA Outward and Inward Direct Investment by Country and Industry, 2018

These statistics cover outward and inward direct investment positions, financial transactions, and income in 2018 and will provide information answering the following questions:
  • How much did U.S. multinationals repatriate following the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?
  • Which countries and industries repatriated the most in 2018?
  • Which countries are the largest destinations for U.S. multinational enterprises’ direct investment?
  • Which countries’ multinational enterprises have the largest direct investment positions in the United States?
  • In which industries is foreign direct investment concentrated?
Statistics on foreign direct investment in the United States include data by the country of the immediate foreign parent as well as data by the country of the ultimate beneficial owner. Statistics on U.S. direct investment abroad will include data by the country and industry of the foreign affiliate as well as data by the industry of the U.S. parent.
Business people, economists, researchers and policymakers can use these data to help them assess the impact of direct investment on the U.S. and foreign economies and on various industries. Additionally, these statistics provide information about globalization and the economic ties between the United States and other countries.

The U.S. direct investment abroad position, or cumulative level of investment, decreased $62.3 billion to $5.95 trillion at the end of 2018 from $6.01 trillion at the end of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The decrease was due to the repatriation of accumulated prior earnings by U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates, largely in response to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The decrease reflected a $75.8 billion decrease in the position in Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere, primarily in Bermuda. By industry, holding company affiliates owned by U.S. manufacturers accounted for most of the decrease. 

The foreign direct investment in the United States position increased $319.1 billion to $4.34 trillion at the end of 2018 from $4.03 trillion at the end of 2017. The increase mainly reflected a $226.1 billion increase in the position from Europe, primarily the Netherlands and Ireland. By industry, affiliates in manufacturing, retail trade, and real estate accounted for the largest increases. 

Chart of sDirect Investment Positions, 2017-2018

Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. Direct Investment Abroad

The TCJA generally eliminated taxes on dividends, or repatriated earnings, to U.S. multinationals from their foreign affiliates. Dividends of $776.5 billion in 2018 exceeded earnings for the year, which led to negative reinvestment of earnings, decreasing the investment position for the first time since 1982. Tables 3 and 4 provide information on the country and industry breakdown of dividends.

By country, nearly half of the dividends in 2018 were repatriated from affiliates in Bermuda ($231.0 billion) and the Netherlands ($138.8 billion). Ireland was the third largest source of dividends, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. By industry, U.S. multinationals in chemical manufacturing ($209.1 billion) and computers and electronic products manufacturing ($195.9 billion) repatriated the most in 2018.

Chart of USDIA: Dividends by Country of Affiliate: 2017-2018

U.S. direct investment abroad (tables 1 – 6)

U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest in nearly every country, but their investment in affiliates in five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2018. The U.S. direct investment abroad position remained the largest in the Netherlands at $883.2 billion, followed by the United Kingdom ($757.8 billion), Luxembourg ($713.8 billion), Ireland ($442.2 billion), and Canada ($401.9 billion). 

By industry of the directly-owned foreign affiliate, investment was highly concentrated in holding companies, which accounted for nearly half of the overall position in 2018. Most holding company affiliates, which are owned by U.S. parents from a variety of industries, own other foreign affiliates that operate in a variety of industries. By industry of the U.S. parent, investment by manufacturing MNEs accounted for 54.0 percent of the position, followed by MNEs in finance and insurance (12.1 percent). 

U.S. MNEs earned income of $531.0 billion in 2018 on their cumulative investment abroad, a 12.8 percent increase from 2017.

Foreign direct investment in the United States (tables 7 – 10)

By country of the foreign parent, five countries accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2018. The United Kingdom remained the top investing country with a position of $560.9 billion. Canada ($511.2 billion) moved up one position from 2017 to be the second-largest investing country, moving Japan ($484.4 billion) into third, while the Netherlands ($479.0 billion) and Luxembourg ($356.0 billion) switched places as the fourth and fifth largest investing countries at the end of 2018. 

By country of the ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), the top five countries in terms of position were the United Kingdom ($597.2 billion), Canada ($588.4 billion), Japan ($488.7 billion), Germany ($474.5 billion), and Ireland ($385.3 billion). On this basis, investment from the Netherlands and Luxembourg was much lower than by country of foreign parent, indicating that much of the investment from foreign parents in these countries was ultimately owned by investors in other countries. 

Foreign direct investment in the United States was concentrated in the U.S. manufacturing sector, which accounted for 40.8 percent of the position. There was also sizable investment in finance and insurance (12.1 percent). 

Foreign MNEs earned income of $208.1 billion in 2018 on their cumulative investment in the United States, a 19.7 percent increase from 2017.

Updates to Direct Investment Statistics Delayed

Updates to BEA’s detailed country and industry statistics for U.S. direct investment abroad and for foreign direct investment in the United States for 2016 and 2017 were delayed due to the impact of the partial federal government shutdown that started in late December 2018. BEA will update the 2016 and 2017 statistics in 2020 along with updates to the 2018 statistics." 

July 24, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, July 14, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $55.5 Billion +8.4%°
Exports: $210.6 Billion +2.0%°
Imports: $266.2 Billion +3.3%°

Next release: August 2, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 3, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, May 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports. May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.

The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $15.7 billion, or 6.4 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent. Imports increased $20.8 billion or 1.6 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.8 billion to $52.9 billion for the three months ending in May.

  • Average exports increased $0.3 billion to $209.5 billion in May.
  • Average imports increased $2.2 billion to $262.4 billion in May.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.3 billion from the three months ending in May 2018.

  • Average exports decreased $1.2 billion from May 2018.
  • Average imports increased $5.1 billion from May 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $3.9 billion to $140.8 billion in May.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $4.0 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $1.4 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $0.5 billion.
    • Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $0.8 billion.
    • Gem diamonds increased $0.3 billion.
    • Jewelry increased $0.3 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.2 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.7 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.7 billion.
  • Other goods increased $0.6 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.6 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $69.8 billion in May.

  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $8.3 billion to $217.0 billion in May.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $8.1 billion.

  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $2.3 billion.
    • Passenger cars increased $1.5 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.8 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $1.3 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $1.6 billion.
    • Semiconductors increased $0.5 billion.
    • Computers increased $0.4 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $1.4 billion.
  • Other goods increased $1.0 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $49.2 billion in May.

  • Transport increased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $4.8 billion to $87.0 billion in May.

  • Real exports of goods increased $4.6 billion to $150.5 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $9.3 billion to $237.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to April exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.4 billion.

Revisions to April imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Hong Kong ($2.6), Singapore ($0.6), Brazil ($0.5), Saudi Arabia (less than $0.1), and United Kingdom (less than $0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).

  • The deficit with Canada increased $1.8 billion to $3.6 billion in May. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $24.3 billion and imports increased $1.5 billion to $27.9 billion.
  • The deficit with the European Union increased $1.8 billion to $16.9 billion in May. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $27.2 billion and imports increased $2.0 billion to $44.1 billion.
  • The deficit with Japan decreased $0.5 billion to $6.0 billion in May. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $6.6 billion and imports increased less than $0.1 billion to $12.5 billion.

*             *             *

Next release: August 2, 2019

July 14, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, July 12, 2019

New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 2018

Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $296.4 billion (preliminary) in 2018. Expenditures were up 8.7 percent from $272.8 billion (revised) in 2017 but were below the annual average of $338.1 billion for 2014–2017. As in previous years, acquisitions of existing businesses accounted for a large majority of total expenditures.

New

In 2018, expenditures for acquisitions were $287.3 billion, expenditures to establish new U.S. businesses were $5.3 billion, and expenditures to expand existing foreign-owned businesses were $3.8 billion. Planned total expenditures, which include both first-year and planned future expenditures, were $318.1 billion. 

Expenditures by industry, country, and state in 2018

By industry, expenditures for new direct investment were mainly concentrated in manufacturing, which accounted for 67.4 percent of total expenditures, or $199.7 billion. Within manufacturing, expenditures were largest in chemical manufacturing ($142.3 billion). There were also notable expenditures in real estate, rental, and leasing ($22.1 billion) and information ($16.3 billion).

By country of ultimate beneficial owner (UBO), Germany and Ireland had the largest expenditures, but their values are suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. Canada ($32.5 billion) was the third largest investing country. By region, Europe contributed nearly three-quarters of new investment in 2018.

By U.S. state, Missouri received the largest investment, but its value is suppressed due to confidentiality requirements. New York ($63.0 billion), Texas ($31.1 billion), and California ($27.3 billion) also received significant investment.

Greenfield expenditures

Greenfield investment expenditures—expenditures to either establish a new U.S. business or to expand an existing foreign-owned U.S. business—were $9.1 billion in 2018. Total planned expenditures until completion for greenfield investment initiated in 2018, which include both first-year and future expenditures, were $30.8 billion. 

By U.S. industry, greenfield expenditures in 2018 were largest in manufacturing ($2.6 billion) and real estate, rental, and leasing ($2.6 billion). By country of UBO, Canada ($2.4 billion) and Japan ($1.2 billion) had the largest expenditures. By U.S. state, Texas received the highest level of greenfield investment ($2.0 billion), followed by New York ($1.6 billion).   

Employment by newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses

In 2018, employment at newly acquired, established, or expanded foreign-owned businesses in the United States was 430,600 employees. Current employment of acquired enterprises was 426,400. Total planned employment, which includes the current employment of acquired enterprises, the planned employment of newly established business enterprises when fully operational, and the planned employment associated with expansions, was 469,800.

By industry, manufacturing accounted for the largest number of employees (209,000), followed by retail trade (62,500). By country of UBO, Canada accounted for the largest number of employees (84,300), followed by the United Kingdom (68,900), and Ireland (68,300).

By U.S. state, California had the largest employment (102,000), followed by New York (55,300) and Texas (45,500). Employment for an acquired entity that operated in multiple states is attributed to the state in which it had the greatest number of employees.

 

Updates to 2017 Expenditures for New Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
Billions of dollars

  Previously Published Estimate Revised Estimate
First-year expenditures 259.6 272.8
    U.S. businesses acquired 253.2 261.5
    U.S. businesses established 4.1 6.0
    U.S. businesses expanded 2.4 5.3
Planned total expenditures 278.0 299.9
    U.S. businesses acquired 253.2 261.5
    U.S. businesses established 18.0 23.3
    U.S. businesses expanded 6.8 15.2

Next release: July 2020

July 12, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, July 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits, First Quarter 2019 (Revised Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.1 percent. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from exports, PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were slightly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending and accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports. These movements were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE. Imports decreased in the first quarter after increasing in the fourth (table 2).

Current–dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $195.0 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price indexincreased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Updates to GDP

The first-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated, reflecting upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were offset by downward revisions to PCE and inventory investment, and an upward revision to imports. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.2 3.1 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.6 3.8
Real GDI 1.4 1.0
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.2 2.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.7 0.8
PCE price index 0.6 0.4 0.5
 
Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26. For more information, see the Technical Note.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $59.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $1.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $68.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $7.4 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $13.8 billion, and payments increased $6.4 billion.

July 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, July 4, 2019

IRS Tax Stats Dispatch

 1.  2014 Corporation Income Tax Returns Complete Report (Publication 16)

Tables presenting statistics from Forms 1120, U.S. Corporation Income Tax Return, are now available. These tables presents comprehensive data on corporation income tax returns with accounting periods ending July 2014 through June 2015. Statistics are presented by industry, asset size, business receipts size, tax form type, and other selected classifiers. Separate tabulations of data reported on Form 1120S, U.S. Income Tax Return for an S Corporation, are also included. The Tax Year 2014 Complete Report presents a significant update to the presentation of corporate tax information. Data formerly presented in a cross-sectional format in a related publication, Corporation Source Book of Statistics of Income, are now included in this publication. Additional tables were also updated, reorganized, and renumbered.

 

  2.  Partnerships, Withholding on Foreign Recipients of U.S. Income, Tax Year 2016

One new table presenting data from Form 8805, Foreign Partner's Information Statement of Section 1446 Withholding Tax, is now available on SOI's Tax Stats Web page. The table provides U.S. income and tax withheld as reported on Form 8805, by country of residence for Tax Year 2016, and includes the number of returns, total income, income, loss, and tax withheld.

 

  3.  Withholding on Dispositions by Foreign Persons of U.S. Real Property Interests, Calendar Year 2016

A table presenting data from Form 8288-A, Withholding on Dispositions by Foreign Persons of U.S. Real Property Interests, for Calendar Year 2016, is now available on SOI's Tax Stats Web page. The table presents the number of returns reporting the sales price of U.S. real property interest, Federal income tax withheld,  and country of residence of foreign person as reported on Form 8288-A.

July 4, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, June 29, 2019

U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2019 and Annual Update

Current-Account Balance

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $130.4 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2019 from $143.9 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product in the first quarter, down from 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

Quarterly U.S. Current-Account and Component Balances

The $13.5 billion decrease in the current-account deficit mostly reflected a decrease in the deficit on goods that was partly offset by an increase in the deficit on secondary income.

Quarterly U.S. Current-Account Transactions

Current-Account Transactions (tables 1-5)

Exports of goods and services and income receipts

Exports of goods and services and income receipts increased $7.2 billion in the first quarter to $945.9 billion.

  • Primary income receipts increased $5.3 billion to $281.8 billion, primarily reflecting increases in direct investment income and in other investment income. A decrease in portfolio investment income partly offset the increases. For more information on direct investment income, see "Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Components of the International Transactions Accounts."
  • Goods exports increased $2.4 billion to $419.3 billion, primarily reflecting increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, mostly passenger cars, and in foods, feeds, and beverages, mainly soybeans. A decrease in industrial supplies and materials partly offset the increases.
  • Services exports increased $2.3 billion to $209.1 billion, primarily reflecting an increase in travel (for all purposes including education), mostly personal travel.
  • Secondary income receipts decreased $2.8 billion to $35.6 billion, reflecting decreases in both private and U.S. government transfers.

Imports of goods and services and income payments

Imports of goods and services and income payments decreased $6.3 billion in the first quarter to $1.08 trillion.

  • Goods imports decreased $13.4 billion to $635.9 billion, primarily reflecting a decrease in industrial supplies and materials, mainly petroleum and products.
  • Primary income payments increased $4.3 billion to $220.7 billion, primarily reflecting an increase in direct investment income.

Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Components of the International Transactions Accounts

In the international transactions accounts, income on equity, or earnings, of foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational enterprises consists of a portion that is repatriated to the parent company in the United States in the form of dividends and a portion that is reinvested in foreign affiliates. In response to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which generally eliminated taxes on repatriated earnings, some U.S. multinational enterprises repatriated accumulated prior earnings of their foreign affiliates. In the first, second, and fourth quarters of 2018, the repatriation of dividends exceeded current-period earnings, resulting in negative values being recorded for reinvested earnings. In the first quarter of 2019, dividends were $100.2 billion while reinvested earnings were $40.2 billion (see table below). The reinvested earnings are also reflected in the net acquisition of direct investment assets in the financial account (table 6). For more information, see "How does the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act affect BEA’s business income statistics?" and "How are the international transactions accounts affected by an increase in direct investment dividend receipts?"

Direct Investment Earnings Receipts and Components
Direct Investment Earnings Receipts
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
  2017 2018 2019
  Ir IIr IIIr IVr Ir IIr IIIr IVr Ip
Direct investment earnings 114.7 115.4 122.2 130.7 134.3 139.4 139.2 134.0 140.5
   Dividends 38.2 34.9 55.1 26.9 285.9 223.8 120.2 146.6 100.2
   Reinvested earnings 76.5 80.5 67.1 103.8 −151.6 −84.4 18.9 −12.6 40.2
p Preliminary | r Revised

Capital Account, Fourth Quarter (table 1)

There were no capital-account transactions recorded in the first quarter, following receipts of $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter transactions reflected receipts from foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from the wildfires in California. For information on transactions associated with natural disasters, see "What are the effects of hurricanes and other disasters on the international economic accounts?"

Financial Account (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Net U.S. borrowing measured by financial-account transactions was $37.8 billion in the first quarter, a decrease from net borrowing of $161.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Financial assets

Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives increased $4.3 billion in the first quarter to $151.6 billion.

  • Net U.S. acquisition of direct investment assets increased $33.8 billion to $59.5 billion. For more information on recent transactions in direct investment assets, see "Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Components of the International Transactions Accounts."
  • Net U.S. acquisition of other investment assets increased $9.9 billion to $151.6 billion, reflecting an increase in net U.S. provision of loans to foreign residents that was mostly offset by a decrease in net U.S acquisition of currency and deposits.
  • Net U.S. sales of portfolio investment assets increased $37.5 billion to $59.7 billion, reflecting net U.S. sales of foreign stocks following net U.S. purchases in the fourth quarter.

Liabilities

Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives decreased $118.3 billion in the first quarter to $167.9 billion.

  • Net U.S. incurrence of other investment liabilities decreased $148.5 billion to $70.2 billion, mostly reflecting net foreign withdrawal of deposits in the United States following a net increase in deposits in the fourth quarter.
  • Net foreign sales of U.S. portfolio investment liabilities were $7.7 billion following net foreign purchases of $14.9 billion in the fourth quarter, reflecting relatively large and nearly offsetting changes in U.S. stock and debt security transactions from the fourth to the first quarter.
  • Net U.S. incurrence of direct investment liabilities increased $52.7 billion to $105.5 billion, primarily reflecting net U.S. incurrence of debt liabilities following net U.S. repayment in the fourth quarter.

Financial derivatives

Transactions in financial derivatives other than reserves reflected first-quarter net borrowing of $21.4 billion.

Statistical Discrepancy (table 1)

The statistical discrepancy was $92.6 billion in the first quarter following a statistical discrepancy of −$20.4 billion in the fourth quarter.

Updates to Fourth Quarter 2018 International Transactions Accounts Aggregatess
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
Current-account balance −134.4 −143.9
    Goods balance −233.1 −232.3
    Services balance 66.1 61.2
    Primary-income balance 60.4 60.1
    Secondary-income balance −27.8 −32.8
Capital-account balance 8.9 2.7
Net lending (+)/borrowing (–) from financial-account transactions −168.3 −161.6
Statistical discrepancy −42.8 −20.4

June 29, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, June 10, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.8 billion in April, down $1.1 billion from $51.9 billion in March, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $50.8 Billion -2.1%°
Exports: $206.8 Billion -2.2%°
Imports: $257.6 Billion -2.2%°

Next release: July 3, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 6, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, April 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

April exports were $206.8 billion, $4.6 billion less than March exports. April imports were $257.6 billion, $5.7 billion less than March imports.

The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.0 billion to $71.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.9 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $4.1 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $8.3 billion or 1.0 percent. Imports increased $12.4 billion or 1.2 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.6 billion to $50.9 billion for the three months ending in April.

  • Average exports decreased $0.2 billion to $209.3 billion in April.
  • Average imports decreased $0.8 billion to $260.2 billion in April.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in April 2018.

  • Average exports increased $1.2 billion from April 2018.
  • Average imports increased $2.3 billion from April 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $4.4 billion to $136.9 billion in April.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.5 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $2.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $2.3 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.4 billion.
    • Automotive parts and accessories decreased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.6 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion to $69.9 billion in April.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Maintenance and repair services decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $5.4 billion to $208.7 billion in April.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $5.4 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $1.7 billion.
    • Semiconductors decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft engines decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $1.1 billion.
    • Gem diamonds decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $1.0 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Other goods decreased $0.8 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.6 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $49.0 billion in April.

  • Transport decreased $0.3 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $1.1 billion to $81.9 billion in April.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $5.1 billion to $146.0 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $6.2 billion to $227.9 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services for all months through March 2019 shown in this release reflect the incorporation of annual revisions to the goods and services series. See the "Notice" in this release for a description of the revisions.

Revisions to March exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down $0.4 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.2 billion.

Revisions to March imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $1.4 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The April figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Hong Kong ($2.4), Brazil ($0.9), and Singapore ($0.6). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($15.1), Mexico ($7.9), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.4), Italy ($3.1), Taiwan ($2.0), France ($2.0), Canada ($1.8), South Korea ($1.5), India ($1.3), United Kingdom ($0.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), and OPEC (less than $0.1).

  • The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.0 billion to $15.1 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $27.0 billion and imports decreased $1.4 billion to $42.1 billion.
  • The deficit with Canada decreased $0.9 billion to $1.8 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $24.6 billion and imports decreased $1.3 billion to $26.4 billion.
  • The deficit with China increased $2.1 billion to $29.4 billion in April. Exports decreased $1.8 billion to $8.5 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $37.9 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, first-quarter figures are now available.

The first-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($22.3), Brazil ($8.1), Hong Kong ($7.4), OPEC ($6.6), United Kingdom ($5.0), Singapore ($4.2), Canada ($4.0), and Saudi Arabia ($1.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($80.8), European Union ($28.4), Mexico ($23.0), Germany ($16.7), Japan ($15.6), Italy ($9.4), India ($7.1), Taiwan ($5.0), France ($4.6), and South Korea ($4.1).

  • The deficit with China decreased $22.9 billion to $80.8 billion in the first quarter. Exports increased $4.9 billion to $41.4 billion and imports decreased $18.0 billion to $122.2 billion.
  • The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a deficit of $2.5 billion to a surplus of $1.5 billion in the first quarter. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $6.3 billion and imports decreased $3.0 billion to $4.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $1.8 billion to $4.1 billion in the first quarter. Exports decreased $1.5 billion to $19.7 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $23.8 billion.

June 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, June 1, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2 percent. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports turned down.

Current–dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $183.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.05 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Updates to GDP

The percent change in first-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate. Downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and an upward revision to imports were mostly offset by upward revisions to exports and PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.2 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.6
Real GDI 1.4
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.2
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.7
PCE price index 0.6 0.4

For the fourth quarter of 2018, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 1.7 percent to 0.5 percent based on newly available fourth-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $65.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $7.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $62.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $4.0 billion, and payments increased $14.8 billion.

Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26.  For more information, see the Technical Note.

June 1, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.0 billion in March, up $0.7 billion from $49.3 billion in February, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $50.0 Billion +1.5%°
Exports: $212.0 Billion +1.0%°
Imports: $262.0 Billion +1.1%°

Next release: June 6, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 9, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, March 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

March exports were $212.0 billion, $2.1 billion more than February exports. March imports were $262.0 billion, $2.8 billion more than February imports.

The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.5 billion to $72.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $22.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $5.8 billion, or 3.7 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $14.0 billion or 2.3 percent. Imports increased $8.2 billion or 1.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $3.3 billion to $50.1 billion for the three months ending in March.

  • Average exports increased $2.2 billion to $209.7 billion in March.
  • Average imports decreased $1.1 billion to $259.9 billion in March.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $1.9 billion from the three months ending in March 2018.

  • Average exports increased $4.7 billion from March 2018.
  • Average imports increased $2.7 billion from March 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $2.0 billion to $141.7 billion in March.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $2.1 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.7 billion.
    • Natural gas liquids increased $0.4 billion.
    • Fuel oil increased $0.3 billion.
    • Metallurgical grade coal increased $0.3 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $0.3 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.8 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.5 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $0.7 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased less than $0.1 billion to $70.3 billion in March.

  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $2.6 billion to $214.1 billion in March.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $2.6 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.4 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $1.4 billion.
    • Organic chemicals increased $0.5 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $0.4 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.0 billion.
    • Other foods increased $0.5 billion.
    • Fish and shellfish increased $0.2 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.7 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.1 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $47.8 billion in March.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Insurance services decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $0.5 billion to $82.1 billion in March.

  • Real exports of goods increased $1.0 billion to $151.8 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $1.5 billion to $233.8 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to February exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Revisions to February imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Hong Kong ($2.4), Brazil ($0.9), OPEC ($0.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.6), Japan ($6.1), Germany ($5.7), Italy ($2.8), Canada ($2.1), Taiwan ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), India ($1.8), France ($1.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

  • The deficit with the European Union increased $3.4 billion to $15.8 billion in March. Exports decreased $1.4 billion to $27.8 billion and imports increased $2.0 billion to $43.6 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a surplus of $0.5 billion to a deficit of $2.1 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $25.3 billion and imports increased $2.6 billion to $27.5 billion.
  • The deficit with China decreased $1.9 billion to $28.3 billion in March. Exports increased $1.4 billion to $10.5 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $38.8 billion.

May 14, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, May 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018

Quarterly GDP by state in 2018:Q4

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 6.6 percent in Texas to 0.0 percent in Delaware (table 1).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2018:Q3-2018-Q4

Wholesale trade, mining, and information services were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). Mining and wholesale trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in Texas, the fastest growing state.

Other highlights

  • Wholesale trade increased 9.1 percent nationally and contributed to growth in all 50 states (GDP by Industry table 1).
  • Mining increased 38.0 percent nationally and contributed to growth in 49 states. In addition to Texas, this industry was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alaska, and New Mexico–the second through fifth fastest growing states.
  • Information services increased 8.9 percent nationally and contributed to growth in every state and the District of Columbia.

Annual GDP by state in 2018

Real GDP increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in 2018. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 5.7 percent in Washington to -0.3 percent in Alaska (table 4).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2017-2018

Information services; professional, scientific, and technical services; and durable goods manufacturing were the leading contributors to national economic growth in 2018. Information services and retail trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in Washington, the fastest growing state (table 5).

Other highlights

  • In addition to Washington, information services was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in four additional states, including California.
  • Professional, scientific, and technical services was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Utah, the second fastest growing state.
  • Durable goods manufacturing was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Idaho, the third fastest growing state.

Updates to Gross Domestic Product by State

Today, BEA also released revised quarterly estimates for 2015:Q1 to 2018:Q3 and annual statistics for 2015-2017. Updates are made each year about this time to incorporate new and revised state source data.

May 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, May 2, 2019

BEA News: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019

Due to the recent partial federal government shutdown, this report combines estimates for February and March 2019. Personal Income is updated for January and February and new estimates are available for March. Personal consumption expenditures are updated for January and new estimates are available for February and March.

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019

Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion (0.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March, and real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in March primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits to persons that were partially offset by decreases in personal interest income and farm proprietors’ income.

In March, real PCE increased $87.4 billion, which reflected a $66.3 billion increase in spending on goods and an increase of $27.9 billion in spending on services. Within goods, increases were widespread, with spending on motor vehicles and parts the leading contributor. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on health care.

Personal outlays increased $126.5 billion in March. Personal saving was $1.03 trillion in March, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.5 percent.

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2019

Personal income increased $35.6 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income increased $23.0 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $11.7 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in February, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees, government social benefits to persons, and personal dividend income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

In February, real PCE decreased $2.8 billion, which reflected a $23.4 billion decrease in spending on goods. This was partially offset by an increase of $16.4 billion in spending on services (table 7). Within goods, food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption was the leading contributor to the decrease. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $14.8 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.16 trillion in February, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.3 percent.

  2018 2019
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Disposable personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.3 1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
   Current dollars 0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.9
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 -0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7
Price indexes:  
   PCE 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
   PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
   PCE 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5
   PCE, excluding food and energy 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6
Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26.  For more information, see the Technical Note.

Next release: May 31, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

May 2, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 greatly exceeds expectation at 3.2% instead of less than 2%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The Bureau’s first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2019.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2). These contributions were partly offset by a decrease in residential investment.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned down.

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $197.6 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Personal Income (table 8)

Current-dollar personal income increased $147.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $229.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The deceleration reflected downturns in personal interest income, personal dividend income, and proprietors’ income that were partly offset by an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Disposable personal income increased $116.0 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $222.9 billion, or 5.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.

Personal saving was $1.11 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.07 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 7.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

April 27, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, April 21, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $49.4 billion in February, down $1.8 billion from $51.1 billion in January, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $49.4 Billion -3.4%°
Exports: $209.7 Billion +1.1%°
Imports: $259.1 Billion +0.2%°

Next release: May 9, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 17, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, February 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

February exports were $209.7 billion, $2.3 billion more than January exports. February imports were $259.1 billion, $0.6 billion more than January imports.

The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.2 billion to $72.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $8.3 billion, or 7.6 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $11.1 billion or 2.7 percent. Imports increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.4 billion to $53.5 billion for the three months ending in February.

  • Average exports increased $0.1 billion to $207.5 billion in February.
  • Average imports decreased $0.3 billion to $261.0 billion in February.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $0.1 billion from the three months ending in February 2018.

  • Average exports increased $3.8 billion from February 2018.
  • Average imports increased $3.7 billion from February 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $2.1 billion to $139.5 billion in February.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.9 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $2.1 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $2.2 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.6 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $70.1 billion in February.

  • Transport increased $0.2 billion.
  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $0.9 billion to $211.6 billion in February.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.8 billion.

  • Consumer goods increased $1.6 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods increased $2.1 billion.
  • Other goods increased $0.5 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.2 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $47.5 billion in February.

  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Government goods and services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $1.8 billion to $81.8 billion in February.

  • Real exports of goods increased $0.8 billion to $150.7 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $0.9 billion to $232.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to January exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Revisions to January imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.7), Hong Kong ($2.8), United Kingdom ($0.9), Brazil ($0.6), Singapore ($0.4), Canada ($0.4), and OPEC ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($12.4), Mexico ($7.7), Japan ($6.7), Germany ($5.5), Italy ($2.8), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.2), France ($2.2), Taiwan ($1.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3).

  • The deficit with China decreased $3.1 billion to $30.1 billion in February. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $9.2 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $39.3 billion.
  • The surplus with Hong Kong increased $1.0 billion to $2.8 billion in February. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $3.2 billion and imports decreased $0.1 billion to $0.3 billion.
  • The deficit with Japan increased $1.3 billion to $6.7 billion in February. Exports decreased $1.1 billion to $5.7 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $12.4 billion.

April 21, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, April 15, 2019

Tax Statistics of Income (SOI) Bulletin - Tax Day

Featured Articles

Individual Income Tax Shares, Tax Year 2016
by Adrian Dungan

For Tax Year 2016, taxpayers filed 140.9 million individual income tax returns, excluding returns filed by dependents. The average adjusted gross income (AGI) reported on these returns was $72, 090, in comparison with $71,829 for the previous year. Total AGI increased slightly by 0.1 percent to $10.16 trillion, while total income tax decreased 0.8 percent to $1.44 trillion. For 2016, the AGI threshold for the top 50 percent of all individual income tax returns was $40,078 for the year. These taxpayers accounted for 88.4 percent of total AGI, and paid 97 percent of total income tax. The top 0.001 percent of tax returns had an AGI of $53,052,900 or more. These taxpayers accounted for 2 percent of total AGI, and paid 3.2 percent of total income tax. The average tax rate of 14.2 percent for all returns in 2016 was the second highest of this 10-year study, Tax Year 2007-2016.

Excel Tables:

Individual Income Tax Rates and Tax Shares

Personal Wealth, 2013
by Aaron Barnes

For 2013, the threshold was $5.25 million or more in gross estate. In 2013, there were an estimated 584 thousand adults in the United States (U.S.) representing the top .25 percent of all adults in the population. Together, these top wealth holders owned nearly $7.3 trillion in assets and held $432 billion in debt, making their combined net worth $6.9 trillion. The Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finance estimated the net worth of all U.S. adults to be $65.5 trillion in 2013. By this measure, 10.5 percent of the Nation's net worth was accounted for by these top wealth holders.

Excel Tables:

Related Link: Personal Wealth Statistics

Individual Income Tax Returns, Preliminary Data, Tax Year 2017
by Michael Parisi

For Tax Year 2017, taxpayers filed 153.1 million U.S. individual income tax returns, an increase of 1.8 percent from the 150.3 million returns filed for Tax Year 2016.  For 2017, adjusted gross income (AGI) increased 7.1 percent to $10.9 trillion. This large increase in AGI was reflected in increases in most components of income, including increases in salaries and wages (5.0 percent), taxable pensions and annuities (5.5 percent), net capital gains (33.5 percent), partnership and S corporation net income less loss (4.8 percent), and ordinary dividends (13.4 percent).

April 15, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, April 11, 2019

UNCTAD Special Report - No-deal Brexit: the trade winners and losers

New research by UNCTAD points to the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK's trading partners, including developing nations.

A no-deal Brexit could damage smaller economies trading with the United Kingdom (UK), hit European Union (EU) exports hard, but bring substantial gains for China.

New UNCTAD research shows the UK and its future trading partners need to expedite bilateral deals if they are to avoid the costs of exiting the EU without a deal.

These costs are considerable, the research found, with the EU standing to lose out on $34.5 billion in exports to the UK.

The second-biggest loser in the event of the UK’s no-deal departure from the EU would be Turkey, taking a  $2.4 billion export hit.

China, meanwhile, could gain an additional $10.2 billion in exports to the UK, with the second-ranked United States standing to add $5.3 billion through its exports to the UK.

“Brexit is not only a regional affair. Once the UK has left its 27 European Union partners behind, it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market,” said UNCTAD’s director of international trade and commodities, Pamela Coke-Hamilton.

Related Blog:
Download:

The UK market accounts for about 3.5% of world trade and is an important trading partner for many developing countries.

In 2018, the UK was the fifth largest importer inside the EU. It imported almost $680 billion worth of goods from the rest of the world, of which about $360 billion came from other EU countries.

Winners and losers

The UNCTAD research estimates that the largest losses would accrue to EU countries, given that they are the most economically-integrated with the UK.

But other countries are also likely to see a decline in their exports, it underlines. In addition to Turkey, the research cites South Korea, Pakistan, Norway, Iceland, Cambodia and Switzerland as those at risk.

The biggest beneficiaries of a no-deal Brexit, meanwhile, would be countries which current face higher tariffs. In addition to China and the US, Japan could expect to gain $4.9 billion.

A no-deal Brexit is also expected to result in increased imports from Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Viet Nam and New Zealand, among others.

“The UK’s intention to lower Most Favored Nations tariffs would increase relative competitiveness of major exporting countries, such as China or the United States, thereby eroding market-share away from less competitive countries,” added Ms. Coke-Hamilton.

But a no-deal Brexit will not only impact large economies. In the balance, smaller economies with a relatively higher level of exports to the UK market will also suffer.

Get to the negotiating table

Many developing countries’ exports enjoy very favourable market access conditions to UK markets, largely because of bilateral trade agreements and because of EU unilateral preferential schemes.

Countries wanting to retain this market access need to negotiate – and quickly – with the UK.

The EU currently has about 70 trade agreements, but these are often not easy to replicate, and negotiations take time.

“In many cases United Kingdom-third countries agreements, or continuity agreements, have not been signed, and there is substantial uncertainty as to whether many of these agreements will be concluded any time soon,” Ms. Coke-Hamilton advised.

As of March 2019, only 26 continuity agreements had been sealed between the UK and trading partners.

In a no-deal Brexit scenario, EU preferential trade agreements with third countries will abruptly cease to apply, and imports to the UK could end up taking place on Most Favored Nation (MFN) terms.

This is a World Trade Organization (WTO) principle that the same tariffs must apply to any trading partner, unless there is an exception set out in an actual trade agreement.

A no-deal Brexit would have immediate repercussions for many developing countries’ exports, with the UNCTAD research raising the specter of significant disruption and economic harm for developing countries whose exports are highly reliant on the UK market and/or are current beneficiaries of EU preferences

While the sums involved might appear low in value terms, the impacts on such countries would be large when measured as a percentage of their exports.

“To avoid negative impacts on developing nations, the UK’s MFN tariffs on what are often key important exports from low income countries, such as sugarcane or bananas, should not be substantially reduced,” Ms. Coke-Hamilton underlined.

“In these circumstances, the best response from developing countries is to accelerate negotiations to replace agreements, especially on hot issues that go beyond tariffs, including rules of origin, non-tariff measures or quotas,” she said.

Ms. Coke-Hamilton added this situation was a powerful reminder to all that “unwinding economic integration is not only complex, but that doing so altogether is a bad idea”.

Figure 1: No-deal Brexit: Winners and Losers in the UK market (selected countries)

BREXIT
Source: UNCTAD

*Pamela Coke-Hamilton is the Director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at the UN Conference on Trade and Development.

April 11, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $51.1 billion in January, down $8.8 billion from $59.9 billion in December, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $51.1 Billion -14.6%°
Exports: $207.3 Billion +0.9%°
Imports: $258.5 Billion -2.6%°

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 27, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, January 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

January exports were $207.3 billion, $1.9 billion more than December exports. January imports were $258.5 billion, $6.8 billion less than December imports.

The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.2 billion to $73.3 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.1 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit decreased $1.9 billion, or 3.7 percent, from January 2018. Exports increased $6.1 billion or 3.0 percent. Imports increased $4.1 billion or 1.6 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.8 billion to $53.9 billion for the three months ending in January.

  • Average exports decreased $1.1 billion to $207.4 billion in January.
  • Average imports decreased $2.9 billion to $261.2 billion in January.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $2.5 billion from the three months ending in January 2018.

  • Average exports increased $4.5 billion from January 2018.
  • Average imports increased $7.0 billion from January 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion to $137.4 billion in January.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.8 billion.

  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.3 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.9 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.2 billion.
    • Passenger cars increased $0.7 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $1.3 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $70.0 billion in January.

  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $6.5 billion to $210.7 billion in January.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $6.5 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $3.0 billion.
    • Computer accessories decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Semiconductors decreased $0.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.3 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $47.8 billion in January.

  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Other business services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $7.8 billion to $83.8 billion in January.

  • Real exports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $149.7 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $4.8 billion to $233.6 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services were revised for July through December 2018 to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data. In addition to these revisions, seasonally adjusted data for all months in 2018 were revised so that the totals of the seasonally adjusted months equal the annual totals.

Revisions to December exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.3 billion.

Revisions to December imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.4 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The January figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.5), United Kingdom ($2.0), Hong Kong ($1.8), Canada ($1.4), and Brazil ($1.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($33.2), European Union ($13.1), Mexico ($7.2), Germany ($6.0), Japan ($5.3), Italy ($2.9), South Korea ($2.4), Taiwan ($2.2), India ($1.9), France ($1.2), OPEC ($0.2), Saudi Arabia ($0.1), and Singapore (less than $0.1).

  • The deficit with China decreased $5.5 billion to $33.2 billion in January. Exports decreased $0.2 billion to $7.5 billion and imports decreased $5.7 billion to $40.8 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a deficit of $0.7 billion to a surplus of $1.4 billion in January. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $24.4 billion and imports decreased $1.6 billion to $23.0 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.7 billion to $2.4 billion in January. Exports decreased $1.1 billion to $4.2 billion and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $6.6 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, fourth-quarter figures are now available.

The fourth-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($21.2), Hong Kong ($8.1), Brazil ($7.4), United Kingdom ($4.9), Singapore ($4.8), Canada ($1.5), and OPEC ($0.6). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($102.6), European Union ($28.7), Mexico ($21.4), Germany ($16.3), Japan ($14.1), Italy ($9.4), India ($5.8), Taiwan ($3.9), France ($3.0), Saudi Arabia ($2.7), and South Korea ($1.8).

  • The deficit with China increased $6.3 billion to $102.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $8.2 billion to $37.2 billion and imports decreased $1.9 billion to $139.8 billion.
  • The deficit with Taiwan increased $1.9 billion to $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $10.6 billion and imports increased $1.2 billion to $14.5 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a deficit of $3.4 billion to a surplus of $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.8 billion to $89.1 billion and imports decreased $5.8 billion to $87.6 billion.

April 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2019

Personal income decreased $22.9 billion (-0.1 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income decreased $34.9 billion (-0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $8.6 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in January, and real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The decrease in January personal income primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments) and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.

In January, real PCE increased $15.6 billion which reflected a $20.8 billion increase in spending for services that was partially offset by a decrease of $7.7 billion in spending for goods (table 7). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for financial services and insurance. Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the decrease. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $6.3 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $1.19 trillion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.5 percent (table 1).

Personal Income, February 2019

Personal income increased $42.0 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.3 billion (0.2 percent); Real DPI is unavailable for February.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and proprietors’ income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

  2018 2019
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.5 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2
Disposable personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.6 0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.2
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.2 ...
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
   Current dollars 0.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 ...
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 0.4 -0.6 0.1 ...
Price indexes:  
   PCE 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 ...
   PCE, excluding food and energy 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 ...
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
   PCE 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 ...
   PCE, excluding food and energy 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 ...

2018 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 4.5 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. DPI increased 5.0 percent in 2018 compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. In 2018, PCE increased 4.7 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in 2017.

Real DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2017. In 2018, real PCE (table 8) increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in 2017.

April 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)