International Financial Law Prof Blog

Editor: William Byrnes
Texas A&M University
School of Law

Monday, June 10, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.8 billion in April, down $1.1 billion from $51.9 billion in March, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $50.8 Billion -2.1%°
Exports: $206.8 Billion -2.2%°
Imports: $257.6 Billion -2.2%°

Next release: July 3, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 6, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, April 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

April exports were $206.8 billion, $4.6 billion less than March exports. April imports were $257.6 billion, $5.7 billion less than March imports.

The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.0 billion to $71.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.9 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $4.1 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $8.3 billion or 1.0 percent. Imports increased $12.4 billion or 1.2 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.6 billion to $50.9 billion for the three months ending in April.

  • Average exports decreased $0.2 billion to $209.3 billion in April.
  • Average imports decreased $0.8 billion to $260.2 billion in April.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in April 2018.

  • Average exports increased $1.2 billion from April 2018.
  • Average imports increased $2.3 billion from April 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $4.4 billion to $136.9 billion in April.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $4.5 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $2.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $2.3 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.4 billion.
    • Automotive parts and accessories decreased $0.3 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.6 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion to $69.9 billion in April.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Maintenance and repair services decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $5.4 billion to $208.7 billion in April.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $5.4 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $1.7 billion.
    • Semiconductors decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft engines decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $1.1 billion.
    • Gem diamonds decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines decreased $1.0 billion.
    • Passenger cars decreased $0.6 billion.
  • Other goods decreased $0.8 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.6 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $49.0 billion in April.

  • Transport decreased $0.3 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $1.1 billion to $81.9 billion in April.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $5.1 billion to $146.0 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $6.2 billion to $227.9 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services for all months through March 2019 shown in this release reflect the incorporation of annual revisions to the goods and services series. See the "Notice" in this release for a description of the revisions.

Revisions to March exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down $0.4 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down $0.2 billion.

Revisions to March imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $1.4 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The April figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Hong Kong ($2.4), Brazil ($0.9), and Singapore ($0.6). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($15.1), Mexico ($7.9), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.4), Italy ($3.1), Taiwan ($2.0), France ($2.0), Canada ($1.8), South Korea ($1.5), India ($1.3), United Kingdom ($0.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), and OPEC (less than $0.1).

  • The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.0 billion to $15.1 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $27.0 billion and imports decreased $1.4 billion to $42.1 billion.
  • The deficit with Canada decreased $0.9 billion to $1.8 billion in April. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $24.6 billion and imports decreased $1.3 billion to $26.4 billion.
  • The deficit with China increased $2.1 billion to $29.4 billion in April. Exports decreased $1.8 billion to $8.5 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $37.9 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, first-quarter figures are now available.

The first-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($22.3), Brazil ($8.1), Hong Kong ($7.4), OPEC ($6.6), United Kingdom ($5.0), Singapore ($4.2), Canada ($4.0), and Saudi Arabia ($1.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($80.8), European Union ($28.4), Mexico ($23.0), Germany ($16.7), Japan ($15.6), Italy ($9.4), India ($7.1), Taiwan ($5.0), France ($4.6), and South Korea ($4.1).

  • The deficit with China decreased $22.9 billion to $80.8 billion in the first quarter. Exports increased $4.9 billion to $41.4 billion and imports decreased $18.0 billion to $122.2 billion.
  • The balance with Saudi Arabia shifted from a deficit of $2.5 billion to a surplus of $1.5 billion in the first quarter. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $6.3 billion and imports decreased $3.0 billion to $4.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $1.8 billion to $4.1 billion in the first quarter. Exports decreased $1.5 billion to $19.7 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $23.8 billion.

June 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, June 1, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2 percent. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports turned down.

Current–dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $183.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.05 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Updates to GDP

The percent change in first-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate. Downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and an upward revision to imports were mostly offset by upward revisions to exports and PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.2 3.1
Current-dollar GDP 3.8 3.6
Real GDI 1.4
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.2
Gross domestic purchases price index 0.8 0.7
PCE price index 0.6 0.4

For the fourth quarter of 2018, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 1.7 percent to 0.5 percent based on newly available fourth-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $65.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $7.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $62.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $4.0 billion, and payments increased $14.8 billion.

Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26.  For more information, see the Technical Note.

June 1, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.0 billion in March, up $0.7 billion from $49.3 billion in February, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $50.0 Billion +1.5%°
Exports: $212.0 Billion +1.0%°
Imports: $262.0 Billion +1.1%°

Next release: June 6, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 9, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, March 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

March exports were $212.0 billion, $2.1 billion more than February exports. March imports were $262.0 billion, $2.8 billion more than February imports.

The March increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.5 billion to $72.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $22.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $5.8 billion, or 3.7 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $14.0 billion or 2.3 percent. Imports increased $8.2 billion or 1.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $3.3 billion to $50.1 billion for the three months ending in March.

  • Average exports increased $2.2 billion to $209.7 billion in March.
  • Average imports decreased $1.1 billion to $259.9 billion in March.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $1.9 billion from the three months ending in March 2018.

  • Average exports increased $4.7 billion from March 2018.
  • Average imports increased $2.7 billion from March 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $2.0 billion to $141.7 billion in March.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $2.1 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.7 billion.
    • Natural gas liquids increased $0.4 billion.
    • Fuel oil increased $0.3 billion.
    • Metallurgical grade coal increased $0.3 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $0.3 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.8 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.5 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $0.7 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased less than $0.1 billion to $70.3 billion in March.

  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $2.6 billion to $214.1 billion in March.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $2.6 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.4 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $1.4 billion.
    • Organic chemicals increased $0.5 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $0.4 billion.
  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.0 billion.
    • Other foods increased $0.5 billion.
    • Fish and shellfish increased $0.2 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.7 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.1 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $47.8 billion in March.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
  • Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
  • Insurance services decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $0.5 billion to $82.1 billion in March.

  • Real exports of goods increased $1.0 billion to $151.8 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $1.5 billion to $233.8 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to February exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Revisions to February imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Hong Kong ($2.4), Brazil ($0.9), OPEC ($0.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.6), Japan ($6.1), Germany ($5.7), Italy ($2.8), Canada ($2.1), Taiwan ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), India ($1.8), France ($1.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

  • The deficit with the European Union increased $3.4 billion to $15.8 billion in March. Exports decreased $1.4 billion to $27.8 billion and imports increased $2.0 billion to $43.6 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a surplus of $0.5 billion to a deficit of $2.1 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $25.3 billion and imports increased $2.6 billion to $27.5 billion.
  • The deficit with China decreased $1.9 billion to $28.3 billion in March. Exports increased $1.4 billion to $10.5 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $38.8 billion.

May 14, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, May 5, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product by State, 4th quarter 2018 and annual 2018

Quarterly GDP by state in 2018:Q4

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the fourth quarter ranged from 6.6 percent in Texas to 0.0 percent in Delaware (table 1).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2018:Q3-2018-Q4

Wholesale trade, mining, and information services were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). Mining and wholesale trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in Texas, the fastest growing state.

Other highlights

  • Wholesale trade increased 9.1 percent nationally and contributed to growth in all 50 states (GDP by Industry table 1).
  • Mining increased 38.0 percent nationally and contributed to growth in 49 states. In addition to Texas, this industry was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alaska, and New Mexico–the second through fifth fastest growing states.
  • Information services increased 8.9 percent nationally and contributed to growth in every state and the District of Columbia.

Annual GDP by state in 2018

Real GDP increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in 2018. The percent change in real GDP ranged from 5.7 percent in Washington to -0.3 percent in Alaska (table 4).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2017-2018

Information services; professional, scientific, and technical services; and durable goods manufacturing were the leading contributors to national economic growth in 2018. Information services and retail trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in Washington, the fastest growing state (table 5).

Other highlights

  • In addition to Washington, information services was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in four additional states, including California.
  • Professional, scientific, and technical services was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Utah, the second fastest growing state.
  • Durable goods manufacturing was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in Idaho, the third fastest growing state.

Updates to Gross Domestic Product by State

Today, BEA also released revised quarterly estimates for 2015:Q1 to 2018:Q3 and annual statistics for 2015-2017. Updates are made each year about this time to incorporate new and revised state source data.

May 5, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, May 2, 2019

BEA News: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019

Due to the recent partial federal government shutdown, this report combines estimates for February and March 2019. Personal Income is updated for January and February and new estimates are available for March. Personal consumption expenditures are updated for January and new estimates are available for February and March.

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2019

Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion (0.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March, and real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in March primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits to persons that were partially offset by decreases in personal interest income and farm proprietors’ income.

In March, real PCE increased $87.4 billion, which reflected a $66.3 billion increase in spending on goods and an increase of $27.9 billion in spending on services. Within goods, increases were widespread, with spending on motor vehicles and parts the leading contributor. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on health care.

Personal outlays increased $126.5 billion in March. Personal saving was $1.03 trillion in March, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.5 percent.

Personal Income and Outlays, February 2019

Personal income increased $35.6 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income increased $23.0 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $11.7 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in February, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees, government social benefits to persons, and personal dividend income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

In February, real PCE decreased $2.8 billion, which reflected a $23.4 billion decrease in spending on goods. This was partially offset by an increase of $16.4 billion in spending on services (table 7). Within goods, food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption was the leading contributor to the decrease. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $14.8 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.16 trillion in February, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.3 percent.

  2018 2019
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Disposable personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.3 1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
   Current dollars 0.5 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.9
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 -0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7
Price indexes:  
   PCE 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
   PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
   PCE 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5
   PCE, excluding food and energy 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6
Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual update of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2019, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2019 on July 26.  For more information, see the Technical Note.

Next release: May 31, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

May 2, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2019 greatly exceeds expectation at 3.2% instead of less than 2%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The Bureau’s first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2019.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2). These contributions were partly offset by a decrease in residential investment.

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned down.

Current dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $197.6 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

Personal Income (table 8)

Current-dollar personal income increased $147.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $229.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The deceleration reflected downturns in personal interest income, personal dividend income, and proprietors’ income that were partly offset by an acceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Disposable personal income increased $116.0 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $222.9 billion, or 5.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.

Personal saving was $1.11 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.07 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 7.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

April 27, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, April 21, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $49.4 billion in February, down $1.8 billion from $51.1 billion in January, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $49.4 Billion -3.4%°
Exports: $209.7 Billion +1.1%°
Imports: $259.1 Billion +0.2%°

Next release: May 9, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.
Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 17, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, February 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

February exports were $209.7 billion, $2.3 billion more than January exports. February imports were $259.1 billion, $0.6 billion more than January imports.

The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $1.2 billion to $72.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.6 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $8.3 billion, or 7.6 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $11.1 billion or 2.7 percent. Imports increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.4 billion to $53.5 billion for the three months ending in February.

  • Average exports increased $0.1 billion to $207.5 billion in February.
  • Average imports decreased $0.3 billion to $261.0 billion in February.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit decreased $0.1 billion from the three months ending in February 2018.

  • Average exports increased $3.8 billion from February 2018.
  • Average imports increased $3.7 billion from February 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $2.1 billion to $139.5 billion in February.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.9 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $2.1 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $2.2 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.6 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $70.1 billion in February.

  • Transport increased $0.2 billion.
  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $0.9 billion to $211.6 billion in February.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.8 billion.

  • Consumer goods increased $1.6 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods increased $2.1 billion.
  • Other goods increased $0.5 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.2 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $47.5 billion in February.

  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.1 billion.
  • Government goods and services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $1.8 billion to $81.8 billion in February.

  • Real exports of goods increased $0.8 billion to $150.7 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $0.9 billion to $232.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to January exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Revisions to January imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.7), Hong Kong ($2.8), United Kingdom ($0.9), Brazil ($0.6), Singapore ($0.4), Canada ($0.4), and OPEC ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($12.4), Mexico ($7.7), Japan ($6.7), Germany ($5.5), Italy ($2.8), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.2), France ($2.2), Taiwan ($1.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3).

  • The deficit with China decreased $3.1 billion to $30.1 billion in February. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $9.2 billion and imports decreased $1.5 billion to $39.3 billion.
  • The surplus with Hong Kong increased $1.0 billion to $2.8 billion in February. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $3.2 billion and imports decreased $0.1 billion to $0.3 billion.
  • The deficit with Japan increased $1.3 billion to $6.7 billion in February. Exports decreased $1.1 billion to $5.7 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $12.4 billion.

April 21, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday, April 15, 2019

Tax Statistics of Income (SOI) Bulletin - Tax Day

Featured Articles

Individual Income Tax Shares, Tax Year 2016
by Adrian Dungan

For Tax Year 2016, taxpayers filed 140.9 million individual income tax returns, excluding returns filed by dependents. The average adjusted gross income (AGI) reported on these returns was $72, 090, in comparison with $71,829 for the previous year. Total AGI increased slightly by 0.1 percent to $10.16 trillion, while total income tax decreased 0.8 percent to $1.44 trillion. For 2016, the AGI threshold for the top 50 percent of all individual income tax returns was $40,078 for the year. These taxpayers accounted for 88.4 percent of total AGI, and paid 97 percent of total income tax. The top 0.001 percent of tax returns had an AGI of $53,052,900 or more. These taxpayers accounted for 2 percent of total AGI, and paid 3.2 percent of total income tax. The average tax rate of 14.2 percent for all returns in 2016 was the second highest of this 10-year study, Tax Year 2007-2016.

Excel Tables:

Individual Income Tax Rates and Tax Shares

Personal Wealth, 2013
by Aaron Barnes

For 2013, the threshold was $5.25 million or more in gross estate. In 2013, there were an estimated 584 thousand adults in the United States (U.S.) representing the top .25 percent of all adults in the population. Together, these top wealth holders owned nearly $7.3 trillion in assets and held $432 billion in debt, making their combined net worth $6.9 trillion. The Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finance estimated the net worth of all U.S. adults to be $65.5 trillion in 2013. By this measure, 10.5 percent of the Nation's net worth was accounted for by these top wealth holders.

Excel Tables:

Related Link: Personal Wealth Statistics

Individual Income Tax Returns, Preliminary Data, Tax Year 2017
by Michael Parisi

For Tax Year 2017, taxpayers filed 153.1 million U.S. individual income tax returns, an increase of 1.8 percent from the 150.3 million returns filed for Tax Year 2016.  For 2017, adjusted gross income (AGI) increased 7.1 percent to $10.9 trillion. This large increase in AGI was reflected in increases in most components of income, including increases in salaries and wages (5.0 percent), taxable pensions and annuities (5.5 percent), net capital gains (33.5 percent), partnership and S corporation net income less loss (4.8 percent), and ordinary dividends (13.4 percent).

April 15, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, April 11, 2019

UNCTAD Special Report - No-deal Brexit: the trade winners and losers

New research by UNCTAD points to the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit on the UK's trading partners, including developing nations.

A no-deal Brexit could damage smaller economies trading with the United Kingdom (UK), hit European Union (EU) exports hard, but bring substantial gains for China.

New UNCTAD research shows the UK and its future trading partners need to expedite bilateral deals if they are to avoid the costs of exiting the EU without a deal.

These costs are considerable, the research found, with the EU standing to lose out on $34.5 billion in exports to the UK.

The second-biggest loser in the event of the UK’s no-deal departure from the EU would be Turkey, taking a  $2.4 billion export hit.

China, meanwhile, could gain an additional $10.2 billion in exports to the UK, with the second-ranked United States standing to add $5.3 billion through its exports to the UK.

“Brexit is not only a regional affair. Once the UK has left its 27 European Union partners behind, it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market,” said UNCTAD’s director of international trade and commodities, Pamela Coke-Hamilton.

Related Blog:
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The UK market accounts for about 3.5% of world trade and is an important trading partner for many developing countries.

In 2018, the UK was the fifth largest importer inside the EU. It imported almost $680 billion worth of goods from the rest of the world, of which about $360 billion came from other EU countries.

Winners and losers

The UNCTAD research estimates that the largest losses would accrue to EU countries, given that they are the most economically-integrated with the UK.

But other countries are also likely to see a decline in their exports, it underlines. In addition to Turkey, the research cites South Korea, Pakistan, Norway, Iceland, Cambodia and Switzerland as those at risk.

The biggest beneficiaries of a no-deal Brexit, meanwhile, would be countries which current face higher tariffs. In addition to China and the US, Japan could expect to gain $4.9 billion.

A no-deal Brexit is also expected to result in increased imports from Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Viet Nam and New Zealand, among others.

“The UK’s intention to lower Most Favored Nations tariffs would increase relative competitiveness of major exporting countries, such as China or the United States, thereby eroding market-share away from less competitive countries,” added Ms. Coke-Hamilton.

But a no-deal Brexit will not only impact large economies. In the balance, smaller economies with a relatively higher level of exports to the UK market will also suffer.

Get to the negotiating table

Many developing countries’ exports enjoy very favourable market access conditions to UK markets, largely because of bilateral trade agreements and because of EU unilateral preferential schemes.

Countries wanting to retain this market access need to negotiate – and quickly – with the UK.

The EU currently has about 70 trade agreements, but these are often not easy to replicate, and negotiations take time.

“In many cases United Kingdom-third countries agreements, or continuity agreements, have not been signed, and there is substantial uncertainty as to whether many of these agreements will be concluded any time soon,” Ms. Coke-Hamilton advised.

As of March 2019, only 26 continuity agreements had been sealed between the UK and trading partners.

In a no-deal Brexit scenario, EU preferential trade agreements with third countries will abruptly cease to apply, and imports to the UK could end up taking place on Most Favored Nation (MFN) terms.

This is a World Trade Organization (WTO) principle that the same tariffs must apply to any trading partner, unless there is an exception set out in an actual trade agreement.

A no-deal Brexit would have immediate repercussions for many developing countries’ exports, with the UNCTAD research raising the specter of significant disruption and economic harm for developing countries whose exports are highly reliant on the UK market and/or are current beneficiaries of EU preferences

While the sums involved might appear low in value terms, the impacts on such countries would be large when measured as a percentage of their exports.

“To avoid negative impacts on developing nations, the UK’s MFN tariffs on what are often key important exports from low income countries, such as sugarcane or bananas, should not be substantially reduced,” Ms. Coke-Hamilton underlined.

“In these circumstances, the best response from developing countries is to accelerate negotiations to replace agreements, especially on hot issues that go beyond tariffs, including rules of origin, non-tariff measures or quotas,” she said.

Ms. Coke-Hamilton added this situation was a powerful reminder to all that “unwinding economic integration is not only complex, but that doing so altogether is a bad idea”.

Figure 1: No-deal Brexit: Winners and Losers in the UK market (selected countries)

BREXIT
Source: UNCTAD

*Pamela Coke-Hamilton is the Director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at the UN Conference on Trade and Development.

April 11, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2019

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $51.1 billion in January, down $8.8 billion from $59.9 billion in December, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $51.1 Billion -14.6%°
Exports: $207.3 Billion +0.9%°
Imports: $258.5 Billion -2.6%°

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 27, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, January 2019

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

January exports were $207.3 billion, $1.9 billion more than December exports. January imports were $258.5 billion, $6.8 billion less than December imports.

The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.2 billion to $73.3 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.1 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit decreased $1.9 billion, or 3.7 percent, from January 2018. Exports increased $6.1 billion or 3.0 percent. Imports increased $4.1 billion or 1.6 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.8 billion to $53.9 billion for the three months ending in January.

  • Average exports decreased $1.1 billion to $207.4 billion in January.
  • Average imports decreased $2.9 billion to $261.2 billion in January.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $2.5 billion from the three months ending in January 2018.

  • Average exports increased $4.5 billion from January 2018.
  • Average imports increased $7.0 billion from January 2018.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion to $137.4 billion in January.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $1.8 billion.

  • Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $1.3 billion.
    • Soybeans increased $0.9 billion.
  • Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.2 billion.
    • Passenger cars increased $0.7 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $1.3 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $70.0 billion in January.

  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.
  • Transport increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $6.5 billion to $210.7 billion in January.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $6.5 billion.

  • Capital goods decreased $3.0 billion.
    • Computer accessories decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Semiconductors decreased $0.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $0.7 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.3 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $1.4 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.3 billion to $47.8 billion in January.

  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Other business services increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $7.8 billion to $83.8 billion in January.

  • Real exports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $149.7 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $4.8 billion to $233.6 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services were revised for July through December 2018 to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data. In addition to these revisions, seasonally adjusted data for all months in 2018 were revised so that the totals of the seasonally adjusted months equal the annual totals.

Revisions to December exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.3 billion.

Revisions to December imports

  • Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.4 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The January figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.5), United Kingdom ($2.0), Hong Kong ($1.8), Canada ($1.4), and Brazil ($1.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($33.2), European Union ($13.1), Mexico ($7.2), Germany ($6.0), Japan ($5.3), Italy ($2.9), South Korea ($2.4), Taiwan ($2.2), India ($1.9), France ($1.2), OPEC ($0.2), Saudi Arabia ($0.1), and Singapore (less than $0.1).

  • The deficit with China decreased $5.5 billion to $33.2 billion in January. Exports decreased $0.2 billion to $7.5 billion and imports decreased $5.7 billion to $40.8 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a deficit of $0.7 billion to a surplus of $1.4 billion in January. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $24.4 billion and imports decreased $1.6 billion to $23.0 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.7 billion to $2.4 billion in January. Exports decreased $1.1 billion to $4.2 billion and imports decreased $0.4 billion to $6.6 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, fourth-quarter figures are now available.

The fourth-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($21.2), Hong Kong ($8.1), Brazil ($7.4), United Kingdom ($4.9), Singapore ($4.8), Canada ($1.5), and OPEC ($0.6). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($102.6), European Union ($28.7), Mexico ($21.4), Germany ($16.3), Japan ($14.1), Italy ($9.4), India ($5.8), Taiwan ($3.9), France ($3.0), Saudi Arabia ($2.7), and South Korea ($1.8).

  • The deficit with China increased $6.3 billion to $102.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $8.2 billion to $37.2 billion and imports decreased $1.9 billion to $139.8 billion.
  • The deficit with Taiwan increased $1.9 billion to $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $10.6 billion and imports increased $1.2 billion to $14.5 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a deficit of $3.4 billion to a surplus of $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.8 billion to $89.1 billion and imports decreased $5.8 billion to $87.6 billion.

April 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Personal Income, February 2019; Personal Outlays, January 2019

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2019

Personal income decreased $22.9 billion (-0.1 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income decreased $34.9 billion (-0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $8.6 billion (0.1 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in January, and real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

The decrease in January personal income primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments) and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.

In January, real PCE increased $15.6 billion which reflected a $20.8 billion increase in spending for services that was partially offset by a decrease of $7.7 billion in spending for goods (table 7). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for financial services and insurance. Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the decrease. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $6.3 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $1.19 trillion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.5 percent (table 1).

Personal Income, February 2019

Personal income increased $42.0 billion (0.2 percent) in February. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.3 billion (0.2 percent); Real DPI is unavailable for February.

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and proprietors’ income that were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

  2018 2019
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.5 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2
Disposable personal income:  
   Current dollars 0.6 0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.2
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.2 ...
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
   Current dollars 0.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 ...
   Chained (2012) dollars 0.4 0.4 -0.6 0.1 ...
Price indexes:  
   PCE 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 ...
   PCE, excluding food and energy 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 ...
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
   PCE 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 ...
   PCE, excluding food and energy 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 ...

2018 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 4.5 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. DPI increased 5.0 percent in 2018 compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2017. In 2018, PCE increased 4.7 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in 2017.

Real DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2017. In 2018, real PCE (table 8) increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in 2017.

April 10, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

BEA News: Gross Domestic Product Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the Technical Note for details.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter initial estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Initial Estimate” on page 3). Updated estimates for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on March 28, 2019.

Real GDP:  Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

Current dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $233.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $20.89 trillion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $246.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.

Personal Income (table 8)

Current-dollar personal income increased $225.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion in the third quarter. The acceleration in personal income reflected an upturn in farm proprietors’ income and accelerations in personal dividend income and personal interest income. Compensation of employees decelerated.

Disposable personal income increased $218.7 billion, or 5.7 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $160.9 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $996.0 billion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.4 percent in the third quarter.

Updates to third quarter GDI

For the third quarter of 2018, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent based on newly available tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

2018 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2018 (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2017 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2018 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were slightly offset by a small negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP from 2017 to 2018 primarily reflected accelerations in nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and PCE, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in residential investment.

Current-dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent, or $1.02 trillion, in 2018 to a level of $20.50 trillion, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent, or $778.2 billion, in 2017 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in 2018, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in 2017 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent (table 4).

During 2018 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018), real GDP increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2017. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.1 percent during 2018, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during 2017.

March 12, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, March 9, 2019

BEA News: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December 2018

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion from $50.3 billion in November, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $59.8 Billion +18.8%°
Exports: $205.1 Billion -1.9%°
Imports: $264.9 Billion +2.1%°

Next release: March 27, 2019

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.

Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 6, 2019

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, December 2018

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

December exports were $205.1 billion, $3.9 billion less than November exports. December imports were $264.9 billion, $5.5 billion more than November imports.

The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $9.0 billion to $81.5 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $21.8 billion.

For 2018, the goods and services deficit increased $68.8 billion, or 12.5 percent, from 2017. Exports increased $148.9 billion or 6.3 percent. Imports increased $217.7 billion or 7.5 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.5 billion to $55.5 billion for the three months ending in December.

  • Average exports decreased $1.8 billion to $208.2 billion in December.
  • Average imports decreased $0.4 billion to $263.7 billion in December.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.2 billion from the three months ending in December 2017.

  • Average exports increased $6.2 billion from December 2017.
  • Average imports increased $12.4 billion from December 2017.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $3.9 billion to $135.6 billion in December.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.7 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $2.1 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Fuel oil decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Capital goods decreased $1.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft decreased $1.0 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Exports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion to $69.5 billion in December.

  • Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
  • Financial services increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $5.1 billion to $217.2 billion in December.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $5.2 billion.

  • Capital goods increased $2.7 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $0.7 billion.
    • Computers increased $0.7 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $2.4 billion.
    • Household and kitchen appliances increased $0.7 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods increased $0.6 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.5 billion to $47.7 billion in December.

  • Transport increased $0.4 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $10.0 billion to $91.6 billion in December.

  • Real exports of goods decreased $2.2 billion to $146.8 billion.
  • Real imports of goods increased $7.9 billion to $238.4 billion.

Revisions

In addition to revisions to source data for the November statistics, October imports of electric energy, a component of industrial supplies and materials, were revised to incorporate a $0.2 billion correction to source data. Also, the seasonally adjusted goods data were revised for January through November so that the totals of the seasonally adjusted months equal the annual totals.

Revisions to November exports

  • Exports of goods were revised down $0.8 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Revisions to November imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.5), Hong Kong ($2.2), Brazil ($0.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Singapore ($0.4). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($38.7), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.8), Germany ($5.7), Japan ($5.5), Italy ($3.0), South Korea ($1.7), Taiwan ($1.6), France ($1.5), India ($1.4), OPEC ($1.3), Saudi Arabia ($1.2), and Canada ($0.7).

  • The deficit with China increased $3.2 billion to $38.7 billion in December. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $7.7 billion and imports increased $3.6 billion to $46.4 billion.
  • The deficit with Mexico increased $2.1 billion to $8.8 billion in December. Exports decreased $1.3 billion to $21.1 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $29.9 billion.
  • The deficit with India decreased $0.4 billion to $1.4 billion in December. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $3.3 billion and imports increased $0.3 billion to $4.7 billion.

Annual Summary for 2018

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

For 2018, the goods and services deficit was $621.0 billion, up $68.8 billion from $552.3 billion in 2017. Exports were $2,500.0 billion in 2018, up $148.9 billion from 2017. Imports were $3,121.0 billion, up $217.7 billion from 2017.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Annual 2018

The 2018 increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $83.8 billion, or 10.4 percent, to $891.3 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $15.0 billion, or 5.9 percent, to $270.2 billion.

As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 3.0 percent in 2018, up from 2.8 percent in 2017.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $118.5 billion to $1,671.8 billion in 2018.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $117.8 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $74.2 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $24.6 billion.
    • Other petroleum products increased $14.4 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $28.7 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft engines increased $7.9 billion.
    • Other industrial machines increased $2.9 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $2.5 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.6 billion.

Exports of services increased $30.4 billion to $828.1 billion in 2018.

  • Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $8.5 billion.
  • Financial services increased $4.6 billion.
  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $4.3 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $202.2 billion to $2,563.1 billion in 2018.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $200.8 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials increased $68.4 billion.
    • Crude oil increased $24.6 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $52.7 billion.
    • Computers increased $8.7 billion.
    • Electric apparatus increased $5.4 billion.
    • Computer accessories increased $5.4 billion.
    • Other industrial machines increased $5.1 billion.
  • Consumer goods increased $46.1 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations increased $23.7 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $1.4 billion.

Imports of services increased $15.4 billion to $557.9 billion in 2018.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $10.1 billion.
  • Other business services increased $7.0 billion.
  • Transport increased $6.5 billion.
  • Insurance services decreased $13.0 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas – Census Basis (exhibits 14 and 14a)

The 2018 figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($41.5), Hong Kong ($31.1), Netherlands ($24.8), Australia ($15.2), and Belgium ($14.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($419.2), European Union ($169.3), Mexico ($81.5), Germany ($68.3), Japan ($67.6), Ireland ($46.8), Italy ($31.6), Malaysia ($26.5), India ($21.3), OPEC ($21.2), Canada ($19.8), Thailand ($19.3), Switzerland ($18.9), South Korea ($17.9), France ($16.2), Taiwan ($15.5), Russia ($14.1), Indonesia ($12.6), and Saudi Arabia ($10.5).

  • The deficit with China increased $43.6 billion to $419.2 billion in 2018. Exports decreased $9.6 billion to $120.3 billion and imports increased $34.0 billion to $539.5 billion.
  • The deficit with the European Union increased $17.9 billion to $169.3 billion in 2018. Exports increased $35.4 billion to $318.6 billion and imports increased $53.3 billion to $487.9 billion.
  • The surplus with South and Central America increased $7.3 billion to $41.5 billion in 2018. Exports increased $13.6 billion to $163.8 billion and imports increased $6.3 billion to $122.3 billion.

March 9, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Gross Domestic Product by State, 3rd quarter 2018

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2018, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The percent change in real GDP in the third quarter ranged from 5.8 percent in Washington to 0.0 percent in West Virginia (table 1).

Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2018:Q2-2018:Q3

Wholesale trade, information services, finance and insurance, and retail trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP nationally (table 2). Information services and retail trade were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in Washington, the fastest growing state.

Other highlights

  • Nationally, wholesale trade, information services, finance and insurance, and retail trade increased 7.4 percent, 7.6 percent, 5.5 percent, and 6.3 percent, respectively (GDP by Industry table 1). Wholesale trade contributed to growth in 49 states, while information services, finance and insurance, and retail trade contributed to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Finance and insurance was the leading contributor to growth in Utah–the second fastest growing state.
  • Information services was the leading contributor to growth in Arizona–the third fastest growing state.
  • For the nation, real GDP for mining was virtually unchanged from the second quarter. This industry subtracted from growth in Wyoming, Alaska, and West Virginia–the three slowest growing states.

February 27, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, February 9, 2019

International Trade in Goods and Services

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in November 2018 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $55.7 billion in October (revised) to $49.3 billion in November, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published October deficit was $55.5 billion. The goods deficit decreased $6.7 billion in November to $71.6 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.3 billion in November to $22.3 billion.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.3 billion in November, down $6.4 billion from $55.7 billion in October, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit: $49.3 Billion -11.5%°
Exports: $209.9 Billion -0.6%°
Imports: $259.2 Billion -2.9%°

Next release: To be determined. Report delayed due to recent lapse in federal funding.

(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable.

Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 6, 2019.

Goods and Services Trade Deficit, November 2018

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

November exports were $209.9 billion, $1.3 billion less than October exports. November imports were $259.2 billion, $7.7 billion less than October imports.

The November decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $6.7 billion to $71.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $22.3 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $51.9 billion, or 10.4 percent, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $157.1 billion or 7.3 percent. Imports increased $208.9 billion or 7.9 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.5 billion to $53.2 billion for the three months ending in November.

  • Average exports increased $0.5 billion to $210.8 billion in November.
  • Average imports decreased $0.9 billion to $264.0 billion in November.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.4 billion from the three months ending in November 2017.

  • Average exports increased $11.0 billion from November 2017.
  • Average imports increased $17.5 billion from November 2017.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $1.2 billion to $140.3 billion in November.

  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $1.2 billion.

  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $0.6 billion.
    • Nonmonetary gold decreased $0.5 billion.
  • Consumer goods decreased $0.9 billion.
    • Gem diamonds decreased $0.5 billion.
    • Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Capital goods increased $1.4 billion.
    • Civilian aircraft increased $1.0 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $69.5 billion in November.

  • Financial services decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $7.9 billion to $211.9 billion in November.

  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $7.9 billion.

  • Consumer goods decreased $4.3 billion.
    • Cell phones and other household goods decreased $2.3 billion.
    • Artwork, antiques, stamps, and other collectibles decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $3.4 billion.
    • Other petroleum products decreased $1.4 billion.
    • Fuel oil decreased $0.8 billion.
    • Crude oil decreased $0.7 billion.

  Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $47.3 billion in November.

  • Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.3 billion.
  • Insurance services decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2012 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $7.5 billion to $80.8 billion in November.

  • Real exports of goods increased $0.4 billion to $150.0 billion.
  • Real imports of goods decreased $7.1 billion to $230.8 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to October exports

  • Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
  • Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Revisions to October imports

  • Imports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
  • Imports of services were revised up $0.2 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.8), Hong Kong ($2.6), United Kingdom ($0.9), Singapore ($0.8), and Brazil ($0.7). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($35.4), European Union ($13.8), Mexico ($6.8), Japan ($5.7), Germany ($5.6), Italy ($2.7), South Korea ($1.9), India ($1.7), Taiwan ($1.6), Saudi Arabia ($1.5), France ($1.3), OPEC ($1.2), and Canada ($0.8).

  • The deficit with China decreased $2.8 billion to $35.4 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $7.4 billion and imports decreased $2.9 billion to $42.8 billion.
  • The deficit with Canada decreased $1.3 billion to $0.8 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.4 billion to $24.5 billion and imports decreased $1.7 billion to $25.3 billion.
  • The deficit with Taiwan increased $0.4 billion to $1.6 billion in November. Exports decreased $0.3 billion to $2.5 billion and imports increased $0.1 billion to $4.1 billion.

February 9, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (1)

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

U.S. Net International Investment Position: Third Quarter 2018

The U.S. net international investment position decreased to −$9,627.2 billion (preliminary) at the end of the third quarter of 2018 from −$8,845.1 billion (revised) at the end of the second quarter, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $782.1 billion decrease reflected a $135.5 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $917.6 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

U.S. Net International Investment Position

The $782.1 billion decrease in the net investment position also reflected net financial transactions of −$24.6 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of −$757.5 billion (table A).

The net investment position decreased 8.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.2 percent in the second quarter and an average quarterly decrease of 4.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2018.

U.S. assets increased $135.5 billion to $27,150.7 billion at the end of the third quarter, reflecting increases in portfolio investment assets and direct investment assets that were partly offset by decreases in financial derivatives, other investment assets, and reserve assets.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $214.7 billion to $25,651.5 billion. The increase resulted from financial transactions of $141.9 billion and other changes in position of $72.8 billion (table A).
    • Financial transactions mostly reflected net U.S. acquisition of direct investment assets and net U.S. purchases of foreign securities. The net U.S. acquisition of direct investment assets followed two quarters of net U.S. withdrawal of assets. For more information, see the box "Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Direct Investment Assets.
    • Other changes in position reflected foreign stock price increases that raised the equity value of portfolio investment and direct investment assets. These price increases were partly offset by decreases from exchange-rate changes, as several major foreign currencies depreciated against the U.S. dollar, lowering the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $79.3 billion to $1,499.2 billion, reflecting decreases in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment Position
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

  Position,
2018:II
Change in position in 2018:III Position,
2018:III
Total Attributable to:
Financial
transactions
Other changes
in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -8,845.1 -782.1 -24.6 -757.5 -9,627.2
   Net position excluding financial derivatives -8,907.7 -776.7 -12.4 -764.3 -9,684.4
   Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 62.6 -5.4 -12.3 6.9 57.2
   U.S. assets 27,015.2 135.5 (2) (2) 27,150.7
      Assets excluding financial derivatives 25,436.7 214.7 141.9 72.8 25,651.5
      Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,578.5 -79.3 (2) (2) 1,499.2
   U.S. liabilities 35,860.3 917.6 (2) (2) 36,777.9
      Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 34,344.4 991.4 154.3 837.1 35,335.9
      Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,515.9 -73.9 (2) (2) 1,442.0
1. Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2. Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $917.6 billion to $36,777.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, reflecting increases in all major categories of liabilities, except financial derivatives.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $991.4 billion to $35,335.9 billion. The increase resulted from financial transactions of $154.3 billion and other changes in position of $837.1 billion (table A).
    • Financial transactions mostly reflected net U.S. incurrence of direct investment liabilities.  
    • Other changes in position were driven by U.S. stock price increases that raised the equity value of direct investment and portfolio investment liabilities.    
  • Financial derivatives decreased $73.9 billion to $1,442.0 billion, reflecting decreases in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

U.S. Net International Investment Position at the End of the Quarter

Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Direct Investment Assets

The earnings of foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational enterprises consist of repatriated earnings to the parent company in the United States in the form of dividends and reinvested earnings in foreign affiliates. When dividends exceed earnings in a given period, reinvested earnings (calculated as a residual) are negative, indicating a net withdrawal of direct investment equity assets. The net withdrawal in the first half of 2018 reflected the repatriation of accumulated prior earnings by foreign affiliates to their U.S. parent companies (as dividends) in response to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which generally eliminates taxes on repatriated earnings. Preliminary statistics for the third quarter show lower dividends and positive reinvested earnings, indicating a net acquisition of direct investment equity assets for the quarter.

The financial transactions highlighted in this release and related income transactions are reflected in the U.S. international transactions accounts. For more information about how the TCJA affected direct investment asset and income transactions, see "U.S. International Transactions: Third Quarter 2018," which was released on December 19, 2018, and two BEA FAQs "How are the international transactions accounts affected by an increase in direct investment dividend receipts?" and "How does the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act affect BEA's business income statistics?"

Updates to Second-Quarter 2018 International Investment Position Aggregates
Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position -8,638.5 -8,845.1
   U.S. assets 27,063.6 27,015.2
      Direct investment at market value 8,441.5 8,380.0
      Portfolio investment 12,382.1 12,390.2
      Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,578.5 1,578.5
      Other investment 4,220.6 4,225.6
      Reserve assets 440.9 440.9
   U.S. liabilities 35,702.1 35,860.3
      Direct investment at market value 9,018.5 9,011.8
      Portfolio investment 19,480.7 19,483.0
      Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,515.9 1,515.9
      Other investment 5,687.0 5,849.7

 



February 6, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

OECD Corporate Tax Statistics launch today

Tax systems worldwide are converging towards lower corporate tax rates. At the same time, the scale of base erosion and profit shifting is significant, and continues affecting the durability of the corporate tax base.

How do corporate tax levels compare across countries? What factors are driving the variation in corporate tax burdens seen worldwide? How important are corporate tax revenues as a percentage of total revenues, on a country-by-country basis?

A new OECD report and dataset to be published on Tuesday 15 January provides internationally comparable statistics and analysis designed to inform the tax policy debate.

Corporate Tax Statistics provides internationally comparable data on corporate tax revenues, statutory corporate income tax rates, corporate effective tax rates and tax incentives related to innovation.

The database is intended to assist in the study of corporate tax policy and expand the quality and range of statistical information available for analysis under the OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative. Future editions will also include an important new data source – aggregated and anonymised statistics of data collected under country-by-country reporting now being implemented under BEPS Action 13.

The publication and data will be freely accessible to accredited journalists on the OECD’s password-protected website from 11:00 a.m. CET on Tuesday 15 January.

January 15, 2019 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, December 28, 2018

USA Personal Income and Outlays, November 2018

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

  2018
July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
Current dollars

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.2

Disposable personal income:  
Current dollars 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2
Chained (2012) dollars 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
Current dollars 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.4
Chained (2012) dollars 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.3
Price indexes:  
PCE 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8
PCE, excluding food and energy 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9

The increase in personal income in November primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income (table 3) that were partially offset by decreases in personal dividend income and social security benefits. Farm proprietors’ income increased $14.9 billion in November, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

The $42.5 billion increase in real PCE in November reflected an increase of $32.6 billion in spending for goods and a $13.2 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $56.6 billion in November (table 3). Personal saving was $944.2 billion in November and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.0 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July through October. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and previously published in last month's release -- are shown below.

  Change from preceding month
September October
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:  
Current dollars 40.2 39.4 0.2 0.2 84.9 88.0 0.5 0.5
Disposable personal income:  
Current dollars 32.2 31.3 0.2 0.2 81.7 83.6 0.5 0.5
Chained (2012) dollars 11.8 10.2 0.1 0.1 49.2 49.0 0.3 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:  
Current dollars 31.5 17.7 0.2 0.1 86.9 108.7 0.6 0.8
Chained (2012) dollars 12.9 -0.5 0.1 0.0 56.5 74.9 0.4 0.6
Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates for 2019
December 2018…. January 31 April 2019…. May 31 August 2019…. September 27
January 2019…. March 1 May 2019…. June 28 September 2019…. October 31
February 2019…. March 29 June 2019…. July 30 October 2019…. November 27
March 2019.… April 29 July 2019…. August 30 November 2019…. December 20

Next release:  January 31, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EST

Personal Income and Outlays: December 2018

December 28, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, December 27, 2018

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2018

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q3 2018 (3rd est.)

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the second quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in PCE. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $246.3 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $20.66 trillion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

Updates to GDP

The third-quarter percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, reflecting downward revisions to PCE and exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to private inventory investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.5 3.5 3.4
Current-dollar GDP 4.9 5.0 4.9
Real GDI 4.0 4.3
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 3.8 3.8
Gross domestic purchases price index 1.7 1.7 1.8
PCE price index 1.6 1.5 1.6

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $78.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the second quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $6.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $16.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $83.0 billion, compared with an increase of $53.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world  profits increased $1.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $9.5 billion, and payments decreased $10.8 billion.

*          *          *

Next release, January 30, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Advance Estimate)

December 27, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, December 21, 2018

How does the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act affect BEA's business income statistics?

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes several provisions that impact the business income statistics in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs), including corporate taxes and capital transfers.  Major provisions are highlighted below.

One-time Deemed Repatriation Tax on Accumulated Foreign Earnings

A one-time deemed repatriation tax is imposed on foreign earnings accumulated after 1986 until the end of a company's most recent fiscal year.  Under this provision, accumulated foreign earnings are deemed repatriated whether or not they are actually repatriated.  The tax rate is 15.5 percent on earnings held in cash and cash equivalents and 8.0 percent on earnings held in illiquid assets. Parent corporations may elect to pay this tax in prescribed installments over a period of eight years.

In the NIPAs, the deemed repatriation tax is classified as a capital transfer from business to government and recorded on an accrual basis in the fourth quarter of 2017 (Lines 2 and 35 of NIPA table 5.11U. Capital Transfers Paid and Received, by Sector and by Type.)  This tax is classified as a capital transaction because the tax applies to previously accumulated earnings and is not related to current period production. It is effectively a wealth tax in economic accounting terms. The one-time capital transfer affects net lending/borrowing of business and government, resulting in a redistribution of net worth from business to government but not affecting any measures in the current accounts.

BEA's estimate of the one-time repatriation tax is $250 billion at a quarterly rate ($1 trillion at an annual rate) and will be recorded (in its entirety) on an accrual basis in the fourth quarter of 2017.  This estimate was based on analysis of data from BEA's international transactions accounts (ITAs), international investment position (IIP), and activities of multinational enterprises (AMNE), as well as estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Analysis (OTA). This estimate may be updated as source data become available from the IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) reports. The SOI data are available on a two-year lag and will reflect the tax payments on a cash basis.

Decrease in Corporate Tax Rates

The tax law also changes the nominal domestic corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent beginning with the first quarter of 2018.  This will reduce the amount of taxes paid by corporations and received by the government.  This will not affect Gross Domestic Income (GDI) because profits before tax is the featured measure included in GDI.

Actual amounts of taxes paid by industry will be available in the SOI data with a two-year lag.  Until SOI data are available, estimates of corporate taxes are based on extrapolations that will be adjusted to reflect the new tax rates.   Estimates made for taxes will be replaced with SOI source data once they are available.

Taxation of U.S. Multinational Companies

For U.S. multinational companies, the tax law moves the tax system from a worldwide system to a modified territorial tax system. Under the worldwide system, companies were effectively taxed on all profits overseas at the statutory U.S. corporate tax rate.  These taxes, however, were deferred until the profits were repatriated and brought back to the United States.  In the NIPAs, repatriated profits are classified as dividends from the rest of the world.

Under the new modified territorial system, companies are no longer taxed on funds that are repatriated back to the United States, but they are potentially subject to new taxes. The Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income tax (GILTI) is a minimum tax on the excess income of foreign subsidiaries over a 10 percent rate of return on tangible business assets. The Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) is effectively an alternative minimum tax applied to companies with excessive interest or services payments to related parties.

These new taxes will be recorded in the NIPA's as taxes on corporate income beginning with the first quarter of 2018. The amounts of the taxes will be captured in the source data for corporate taxes from SOI reports. For time periods before SOI data are available, BEA will estimate these news taxes based on estimates from the JCT.

Estimates of taxes on corporate income can be found on line 16 of NIPA table 1.10. Gross Domestic Income by Type of Income.

December 21, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)