Monday, August 31, 2020
BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).
The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment). The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in residential investment primarily reflected a decrease in new single-family housing.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 33.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.5 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 32.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.7 percent in the first quarter (table 1).
Current-dollar GDP decreased 33.3 percent, or $2.07 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.49 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.
More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA’s website.
Updates to GDP
In the second estimate, real GDP decreased 31.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previous estimate issued last month. The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.
|Advance Estimate||Second Estimate|
|(Percent change from preceding quarter)|
|Average of Real GDP and Real GDI||…||-32.4|
|Gross domestic purchases price index||-1.5||-1.5|
|PCE price index||-1.9||-1.8|
|PCE price index excluding food and energy||-1.1||-1.0|
Updates to First-Quarter Wages and Salaries
In addition to presenting updated estimates for the second quarter, today's release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $103.6 billion in the first quarter of 2020, a downward revision of $3.4 billion. Real GDI decreased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, unrevised from the previously published estimate.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $226.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of $276.2 billion in the first quarter (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $39.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $42.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $170.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $190.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $96.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $43.5 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $139.7 billion, and payments decreased $43.4 billion.