International Financial Law Prof Blog

Editor: William Byrnes
Texas A&M University
School of Law

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019; Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.0 percent. Downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter (table 1).

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $241.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $201.0 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Updates to GDP

The second-quarter percent change in real GDP was the same as previously estimated. Downward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports, and a downward revision to imports. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

  Advance Estimate Second Estimate Third Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 2.1 2.0 2.0
Current-dollar GDP 4.6 4.6 4.7
Real GDI 2.1 1.8
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI 2.1 1.9
Gross domestic purchases price index 2.2 2.2 2.2
PCE price index 2.3 2.3 2.4

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $75.8 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $78.7 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $2.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $22.2 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $34.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $108.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $38.7 billion, compared with an increase of $7.3 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $25.3 billion, and payments decreased $13.4 billion.

https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/intfinlaw/2019/10/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2019-corporate-profits-second-quarter-2019.html

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