Saturday, June 1, 2019
BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2 percent. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).
The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports turned down.
Current–dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $183.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.05 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $206.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.
Updates to GDP
The percent change in first-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate. Downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and an upward revision to imports were mostly offset by upward revisions to exports and PCE. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.
|Advance Estimate||Second Estimate|
|(Percent change from preceding quarter)|
|Average of Real GDP and Real GDI||…||2.2|
|Gross domestic purchases price index||0.8||0.7|
|PCE price index||0.6||0.4|
For the fourth quarter of 2018, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 1.7 percent to 0.5 percent based on newly available fourth-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.
Corporate Profits (table 10)
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $65.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.7 billion in the fourth quarter.
Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $7.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $25.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $62.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $13.6 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $1.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $4.0 billion, and payments increased $14.8 billion.