Tuesday, February 25, 2020
A report released Monday by the National Foundation for American Policy projects that Trump policies like the expanded travel ban, the public charge rule preventing immigrants who receive public benefits from entering the country, and the health insurance mandate will lower immigration. Refugee admissions have also fallen. In sum, legal immigration has already declined by 11 percent between the 2016 and 2018 fiscal years. The NFAP report predicts the decline will reach 30 percent by 2021.
Immigration restriction in all categories, including legal immigration, is a goal of the more hardline Trump immigration policymakers like Stephen Miller and Ken Cucinnelli. However, some government officials want to maintain legal migration while curtailing undocumented and other categories of migration. (See recent statement of acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney or Jared Kushner's proposals for comprehensive immigration reform.)
The significant decline in legal immigration means lower long-term economic growth as well (40% less migration means 47% less economic growth, 50% less migration means 59% less growth). A February 2020 report from the U.S. Census Bureau concluded, “Higher international immigration over the next four decades would produce a faster growing, more diverse, and younger population for the United States.”