What Are the Odds That Jay Was at Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. on January 13th?

Yesterday, I posted about Jay's statement to Detectives Ritz and MacGillivary during his pre-interview that Jeff G. drove him to Woodlawn High School at 3:00 P.M. on January 13, 1999, whereupon he met Stephanie in the parking lot. Obviously, if true, this statement presents a counternarrative very different from anything else that Jay said during his recorded interviews or Adnan's trials. But was his statement true? Not necessarily the whole statement. Jay may or may not have been driven to Woodlawn by Jeff G., and he may or may not have seen Stephanie. But was he at Woodlawn at about 3:00 P.M. on January 13th? Is there a 10% chance? 30%? 50%? 75%? Would it change your thoughts if Adnan himself said that Jay arrived at the Woodlawn High School parking lot at 3:00 P.M. on January 13th? Well, it turns out that he (maybe) did.

A reader reminded me of this excerpt from a memo drafted by one of Cristina Gutierrez's clerks after meeting with Adnan in prison:

So, what does this mean? I see several possibilities. In no particular order:

1. Adnan's only knowledge of Jay's 3:00 P.M. trip to Woodlawn comes from the pre-interview notes: In this scenario, Adnan is shown Jay's pre-interview notes and speculates that Jay could have run into Hae after arriving at the Woodlawn parking lot at 3:00 P.M. This would explain why Adnan is very specific about the time (3:00 P.M.) and location (parking lot): They're both in the pre-interview notes. That said, the pre-interview notes don't make it seem like Jay was returning Adnan's car, which is part of his statement to the clerk. Also, I'm not sure whether the defense had Jay's pre-interview notes at the time of his meeting with the clerk.

2. Jay told Adnan that he went to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M.: In this scenario, Adnan doesn't see Jay at 3:00 P.M. but is later told by Jay that he went to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. Jay might have volunteered this information, or Adnan might have asked him something like, "What did you do during the day?" when Jay picked him up from track practice. Given that Jay initially told the detectives that he went to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M., it wouldn't be surprising that Jay told the same thing to Adnan, whether it was true or not.

3. Adnan is mistaken or speculating: In this scenario, Adnan either (1) misspeaks/is remembering a different day when Jay came to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M.; or (2) speculates that Jay might have come to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. and run into Hae. Given the issues that Adnan and seemingly everyone in this case has with remembering which events occurred on January 13th, this wouldn't be too surprising.

4. The plan was for Jay to come to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M.: This has two permutations. Either (1) Jay and Adnan agreed that Jay would return to Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. when Adnan loaned him his car; or (2) Adnan contacted Jay after Hae turned him down for a ride (maybe this was the 2:36 P.M. call, or maybe Adnan called a landline or the cell phone of someone who was hanging out with Jay). The interesting thing about this latter scenario is that Jay said in his pre-interview that Adnan called asking for a ride between 2:30 and 2:45 P.M. 

5. Adnan saw Jay at Woodlawn at about 3:00 P.M.: This could be an extension of the third possibility, or it could be an unannounced trip by Jay to Woodlawn. Depending upon when Hae left school (right after school according to Inez and Becky; about 3:00 P.M. according to Summer and/or Debbie), this could be helpful or hurtful to Adnan and Jay. If I'm right that Summer and Debbie had the wrong day and that Hae left school soon after it ended, this possibility would seem to help Adnan and could even explain how Adnan made The Nisha Call. 

6. Jay being at Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. was a cover story by Jay and Adnan: In this scenario, Jay and Adnan agree that they will tell everyone that Jay was at Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. to cover the reality that Jay was helping Adnan in the aftermath of the murder at this time. One issue with this theory/lie is that it requires the cooperation of Jeff G. and Stephanie, at least in the version told by Jay to the detectives. Also, if this was a cover story, why are there no notes in which Jay tells the detectives that this was the reason for his lie when he "came clean"?

Obviously, the likelihood of Jay being at Woodlawn at 3:00 P.M. on January 13th varies depending on which of these possibilities you think is correct. At this point, I'm not sure which one I believe. I do, however, have some additional thoughts/questions on this matter:

1. Did Jay "come clean" based upon his Woodlawn/3:00 statement? A lot of people wonder why an innocent Jay would have implicated Adnan in Hae's murder. Imagine a scenario in which both Adnan and Jay are innocent. Jay is being pre-interviewed by detectives, who know about the Leakin Park pings, Jay and Adnan hanging out on January 13th, etc. Jay, being uninvolved, honestly tells the detectives that he arrived at the Woodlawn parking lot at 3:00 P.M. on January 13th. The detectives then tell Jay that he's just hung himself because they have a witness -- Debbie -- saying that she saw Hae at 3:00 P.M. as she was just about to go to the parking lot and drive directly to pick up her cousin. This is when, as Jay confirms, the detectives tell him that he's being prosecuted for Hae's murder unless he rats out Adnan. Jay, being "caught," "comes clean" and, with the help of the detectives, crafts a narrative in which Adnan killed Hae and he merely helped with the burial.

2. Does the pre-interview explain Jay's insistence on the 3:45ish Best Buy call? One of the huge mysteries in this case is why Jay continually maintains that he got the "come and get me" call from Adnan at around 3:45 P.M., despite the State's theory of the case at trial being that this call was the 2:36 P.M. call. Why wouldn't Jay go along with the State's timeline/why wouldn't the State force him to go along with this timeline? An obvious problem is that the 2:36 call was part of Jay's pre-interview timeline. Again, Jay said in his pre-interview that Adnan called between 2:30 and 2:45 P.M., asking for a ride. According to Jay, this was then followed by Jay heading to Woodlawn High School at 3:00 P.M. 

This creates an obvious problem for both Jay and the State, a problem that would become even more obvious (or might have already been obvious) based upon witnesses saying that Hae turned Adnan down a ride after school. If Jay testified that Adnan called him at 2:36 P.M., there's the obvious problem that his first version of this timeline involves Adnan asking for a ride and Jay subsequently arriving at Woodlawn. Instead, a new story is created in which Jay is at the Pusateri residence until 3:45ish, heads to see Jeff G., who isn't home, and then get the "come and get me" call from Adnan. By doing this, Jay can waive off his pre-interview statements when defense counsel is (doing a terrible job) cross-examining him at trial. The pre-interview becomes a false and entirely separate narrative from the one presented at trial (except for the fact that the State then does make the 2:36 P.M. call the "come and get me" call during closing).

3. Is Jay's pre-interview story close to the actual truth in this case? It might just be. I don't think anyone still believes that the 2:36 call was the Best Buy call, neither Jay nor the State has ever claimed that the 3:15 call is the Best Buy call, and there is no call at around 3:45 to Adnan's cell phone. According to Jay, there is a 2:36 call (or at least a call between 2:30 and 2:45 P.M.) from Adnan asking for a ride, which is consistent with Adnan being turned down by Hae for a ride after school. This could easily be a call made by Adnan from the library if Asia has the wrong day or Asia has the right day and is a little off on timing (she left the library about 5 minutes earlier than she thought).

Jay's trial story about what actually happened on the afternoon of January 13th doesn't match reality because he had to create a new narrative after his pre-interview. Adnan's story about what actually happened on the afternoon of January 13th doesn't match reality because he can't admit seeing Jay between school and track practice given Jay's claim about what they did between school and track practice.

Is this a crazy theory? Maybe, but keep this in mind: In his Intercept interview, Jay says that he dropped Adnan off for track practice before Adnan killed Hae, with Adnan ostensibly being late for practice. Is it possible that that Adnan and Jay did indeed hang out before track practice, which is when Adnan called Nisha? At this point, it seems as plausible as any other scenario. 

 -CM