Medicare and Social Security Projections-Not Unexpected?

The news from the Congressional Budget Office underscores the reality that the SSA and Medicare Trustees have been pointing out for a while now.  According to an article yesterday in The Hill, CBO warns of sharp uptick in Social Security, Medicare spending,

Federal spending on Social Security and Medicare is projected to rise dramatically over the next decade, far outpacing revenues and the economy on the whole while putting new pressure on Congress to address accelerated threats of insolvency, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). 

The increase is driven by a variety of factors, including Social Security’s new cost-of-living adjustment, the rising cost of medical services under Medicare and greater participation rates in both programs, as the last of the baby boomers become eligible for retirement benefits. 

Further, in Social Security set to run short of funds one year earlier than expected the director of the CBO explains

Social Security funds are set to start running a shortfall in 2032, one year earlier than previously expected, the director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on Tuesday.

“The Social Security solvency date — the exhaustion date for the trust fund — is now within the budget window,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said, referring to the 10-year period covered by the agency’s annual report.

If the Social Security funds become insolvent and there is no change to current laws, beneficiaries would see a more than 20 percent reduction in their benefits, Swagel added. 

This is the CBO’s second update to the Social Security insolvency date in the last two months, after it adjusted its projection down to 2033 in mid-December.

And finally, in Axios today, Medicare politics are on a crash course with reality

By the numbers: Medicare spending is expected to more than double by 2033 — climbing to $1.6 trillion, or over 4% of the entire U.S. economy, according to an estimate released yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office.

[T]he program's trustees have said the fund that pays for Medicare's hospital coverage will soon reach a dangerous tipping point — paying out more than it takes in. On that trajectory, it eventually wouldn't be able to pay for the coverage it's supposed to provide.

Want to read the full CBO report? It's here.  

Misquoting Bette Davis, "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride."