Monday, July 5, 2021
I'm currently working on an article that looks at senior living trends, and came across several interesting, significant data points in a January 2021 article entitled The Future of Headship and Homeownership, by Laurie Goodman and Jun Zhu for the Urban Institute.
The central prediction is that household growth will be "weak" over the next two decades, a decline associated with slowing of U.S. population growth and lower "headship rates" among most age groups. The terms are defined at the beginning of the article.
Further, key takeaways from the article include these findings:
- Almost all net household growth will be from senior households. Of the 16.1 million net new households formed between 2020 and 2040, 13.8 million will be headed by someone over 65.
- All net household growth will be from households of color. Between 2020 and 2040, there will be 16.1 million net new households. Hispanic households will grow by 8.6 million, households of other races (mostly Asian households) will grow by 4.8 million, and Black households will grow by 3.4 million. White households will decline by 0.6 million.
However, despite what at first seems like "better" (if not good news) for households of color, the authors also predict:
- The decline in the homeownership rate will be particularly pronounced for Black households headed by 45-to 74-year-olds. If current policies stay the same, the Black homeownership rate will fall well below the rate of previous generations at the same age and result in an unprecedented number of Black renters over 65; we project elderly Black renters will more than double from 1.3 million in 2020 to 2.6 million in 2040.