Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Here's an interesting question: The Silver Tsunami: Which Areas will be Flooded with Homes once Boomers Start Leaving Them? It's a good question; an important one. Here are some highlights from the article:
- Over the next 20 years, more than a quarter (27.4 percent) of the nation’s currently owner-occupied homes are likely to hit the market as their current owners pass away or otherwise vacate their homes.
- Places likely to be most impacted by this upcoming Silver Tsunami include both retirement hubs (Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Tucson) and regions where young residents have left (Cleveland, Dayton, Knoxville and Pittsburgh). The impact of the Silver Tsunami is also likely to vary greatly across different areas within metros.
- The places likely to be least impacted include those with vibrant economies featuring fast growth and affordable housing that act as magnets for younger residents (Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston).
- Housing released by the Silver Tsunami will provide a substantial and sustained boost to housing supply, comparable in magnitude to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.
- It seems likely that, in the coming two decades, the construction industry will need to place a greater focus on updating existing properties, in addition to simply building new homes.
The article suggests we look for this tsunami to "hit" between 2020-2030. Where will it hit the hardest?
The Silver Tsunami will strike nationwide, impacting between one-fifth and one-third of the current owner-occupied housing stock in every metro analyzed.
Well-known retirement destinations, including Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Tucson, will experience the most housing turnover in the wake of the Silver Tsunami. If the number of future retirees choosing to make these places home during their golden years fails to match generations past and local housing demand fades, these areas may end up with excess housing.
The article contains important statistics ranking areas most and least likely to be affected. The article also discusses a ray of sunshine within this tsunami-the housing turnover is likely to serve as a substitute for new construction.
Get your tsunami preparedness kit together---you've been warned :-)
Thanks to Professor Mark Bauer for sending me the article.