CrimProf Blog

Editor: Kevin Cole
Univ. of San Diego School of Law

Monday, June 29, 2020

Conklin on Bayesian Jury Instructions and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy

Michael Conklin (Angelo State University) has posted The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney's Fallacy (9 HOUS. L. REV.: OFF REC. 73 (2019)) on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
 
A previous study found that the effects of the prosecutor’s fallacy can be minimized if juries are presented with a Bayesian jury instruction. This study examines whether a similar instruction can likewise combat the more pervasive defense attorney’s fallacy or if the results of the previous study were more a function of increased confusion rather than an increased understanding of conditional probabilities. Additionally, prior performance in a statistics class is considered as a measure of susceptibility to this probabilistic fallacy.

https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/crimprof_blog/2020/06/conklin-on-bayesian-jury-instructions-and-the-defense-attorneys-fallacy.html

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