Monday, June 29, 2020
Michael Conklin (Angelo State University) has posted The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney's Fallacy (9 HOUS. L. REV.: OFF REC. 73 (2019)) on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
A previous study found that the effects of the prosecutor’s fallacy can be minimized if juries are presented with a Bayesian jury instruction. This study examines whether a similar instruction can likewise combat the more pervasive defense attorney’s fallacy or if the results of the previous study were more a function of increased confusion rather than an increased understanding of conditional probabilities. Additionally, prior performance in a statistics class is considered as a measure of susceptibility to this probabilistic fallacy.