Tuesday, October 24, 2017
David G. Robinson has posted The Challenges of Prediction: Lessons from Criminal Justice (I/S: A Journal of Law and Policy for the Information Society, Forthcoming) on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
In this article, I draw examples primarily from the domain of criminal justice — and in particular, the intersection of civil rights and criminal justice — to illustrate three structural challenges that can arise whenever law or public policy contemplates adopting predictive analytics as a tool[.]
1) What matters versus what the data measure;
2) Current goals versus historical patterns; and
3) Public authority versus private expertise.
After explaining each of these challenges and illustrating each with concrete examples, I describe feasible ways to avoid these problems and to do prediction more successfully.