Will Former President Donald Trump’s Conviction Be Overturned?

On May 30, 2024, a Manhattan jury convicted former President Donald Trump of falsifying business records with the intent to defraud voters in the 2020 election. The conviction involves, among other things, a non-disclosure agreement that adult film actress Stormy Daniels signed in 2016, which prohibited Daniels from discussing the alleged sexual conduct that, in 2006, occurred with her and Trump.

After the sentencing hearing, which is scheduled for July 11, 2024, Trump’s attorneys will file an appeal seeking to overturn the decision. Below is a brief discussion of the issues that Trump’s attorneys will likely raise on appeal, and a prediction of whether they will be successful.

    1.    The failure to remove Judge Merchan from the case.

Judge Merchan allegedly donated $15 to President Joe Biden’s 2016 election campaign and $10 to an organization called Stop Republicans. A state ethics panel subsequently cautioned Merchan against making such contributions to avoid the appearance of bias. Also, Judge Merchan’s daughter, Loren, works for Authentic Campaigns, a political marketing agency that serves Democratic political candidates, and for a time, Loren was Authentic’s president and Chief Operating Officer. Loren also allegedly displayed an image of President Trump behind bars on her Twitter page, which was later removed. Based on these facts, Trump’s attorneys requested that Judge Merchan be removed from the case. That request was denied.

Perhaps Judge Merchan should have recused himself, but whether he was legally required to do so is a different matter. Judge Merchan donated a small amount to Biden’s campaign eight years ago. Also, Loren’s job at Authentic does not mean that Judge Merchan, because of his daughter’s political activities, will be biased in the trial or have an actual or apparent conflict of interest.

            Prediction: Unsuccessful.

    2.    The failure to change venue.

To many legal scholars and commentators, President Trump faced an uphill battle in this trial because Manhattan is a decidedly liberal city where over eighty-five percent of residents voted for President Biden in 2020, and where a bias toward Trump exists. Indeed, when jury selection began, half of those called for jury duty immediately stated that they could not be impartial in their deliberations. And of the twelve jurors selected, it is highly likely that the majority voted for Biden and harbored negative feelings toward Trump. Given these facts, Trump’s attorneys argued for a venue change, which Judge Merchan denied.

However, the law did not likely require a venue change. To hold that the political orientations of the jurors justify a change in venue in every or most cases would upend the jury system and make criminal trials incredibly inefficient.  Every criminal defendant could argue that the political demographics of a county, city, or state justified a venue change. Moreover, a venue change would not guarantee that existing biases in another venue would be eliminated; also, jurors can certainly assess the facts and evidence objectively despite their political affiliations.  Simply put, it is quite speculative to assume that jurors, who take an oath to be impartial and base their decision on the facts and evidence, would yield to and convict or acquit based upon their political biases. One should have more faith in the citizens of this country.

            Prediction: Unsuccessful.

    3.    Judge Merchan’s decision to allow Stormy Daniels’ testimony.

At the trial, Stormy Daniels testified about a sexual encounter that she had with President Trump in 2006 and, in that testimony, she provided graphic details about the encounter that did not relate to any of the elements of the charges against Trump. Daniels’ testimony also contradicted her prior statements, where she denied that such an encounter ever occurred. Based on the explicit sexual details that Daniels provided in her testimony, the defense will argue that this testimony was unduly prejudicial.

But during the opening statements President Trump’s lawyer, Todd Blanche, told the jury that Trump never had a sexual encounter with Daniels, thus justifying the prosecution’s decision to call Daniels to refute this assertion, which was the alleged motive for the non-disclosure agreement. However, the graphic details to which Daniels testified, such as what President Trump was wearing, how long their sexual encounter lasted, and what sexual position he preferred (Judge Merchan sustained an objection to this part of the testimony), were unnecessary. Surprisingly, the defense did not object to certain portions of this graphic testimony, which prompted Judge Merchan to criticize the defense for not making such objections.

Regardless, as stated above, because Trump specifically denied having a sexual encounter with Daniels, the prosecution was justified in calling Daniels to refute this statement. The question on appeal, therefore, will turn on whether the lurid details that Daniels provided–and which were irrelevant to the prosecution’s case–were sufficiently prejudicial to deprive President Trump of a fair trial.

The answer is, most likely, no. The appellate courts will decide that this was a harmless error.

            Prediction: Unsuccessful.

    4.    Judge Merchan’s evidentiary rulings.

Trump’s attorneys will argue that Judge Merchan’s evidentiary rulings reflected a pro-prosecution bias throughout the trial and compromised President Trump’s right to a fair trial.

Some of the objections that Judge Merchan sustained for the prosecution were questionable. For example, the way Judge Merchan limited Robert Costello’s testimony–not to mention his hostile demeanor toward Costello, calling him contemptuous and threatening to strike his testimony–was concerning. Of course, Costello did himself no favors by acting disrespectfully when Judge Merchan sustained one of the prosecution’s objections. You would think that a lawyer of Costello’s caliber would refrain from such conduct, which severely compromised his credibility.

Additionally, Judge Merchan also restricted the testimony of former Federal Election Commission Chairman Brad Smith, who would have testified that Trump’s payments to Cohen did not constitute a campaign finance violation.  In fact, the restrictions were so significant that the defense decided not to call Smith, Furthermore, Judge Merchan allowed the prosecution to tell the jury that Cohen had pleaded guilty to a campaign finance violation – which was among the charges that Trump faced.[1] When Judge Merchan allowed this, he should have permitted Brad Smith’s testimony to refute the prosecution’s argument. Judge Merchan’s failure to do so is very problematic because it enabled the jury to think, “If Cohen pleaded guilty to a campaign finance violation, then Trump must be guilty too.”

Also, Judge Merchan’s decision regarding the permissible scope of cross-examination if Trump testified was troubling. Specifically, Judge Merchan ruled that the prosecution could ask Trump about the verdict finding him liable for defaming E. Jean Carroll, about the four-hundred-and-fifty-four-million-dollar verdict that Judge Arthur Engeron imposed in President Trump’s civil fraud trial, and about Trump’s numerous violations of Judge Merchan’s gag order. None of these questions related to the charges facing Trump, and allowing the prosecution to ask such questions was more prejudicial than probative. And these rulings played a significant role in Trump’s decision not to testify.

Judge Merchan’s decision regarding the scope of cross-examination may be problematic given the Court of Appeals of New York’s recent decision in People v. Weinstein, where the Court, by a 4-3 decision reversed the conviction against Harvey Weinstein on sexual assault charges. In that case, the Court of Appeals held that the trial court improperly allowed several women to testify that Weinstein had sexually assaulted them, even though Weinstein was not on trial for assaulting those women. As the majority stated, “[u]nder our system of justice, the accused has a right to be held to account only for the crime charged and, thus, allegations of prior bad acts may not be admitted against them for the sole purpose of establishing their propensity for criminality.”[2]

To be clear, this is not to say that Judge Merchan was consciously biased against President Trump. It is to say that some of his evidentiary rulings, including when considering the Court of Appeals’ decision in Weinstein, might constitute reversible error.

            Prediction: Possibly successful.

    5.     Whether Michael Cohen’s testimony should not have been given any weight by the jury, thus justifying a directed verdict for President Trump.

Michael Cohen was not a credible witness.  He lied to Congress.  He pleaded guilty to tax evasion and bank fraud (which were unrelated to Trump), which led to his disbarment and incarceration. He lied to a federal court. He called a deceased federal judge corrupt. He secretly recorded President Trump–his client at the time–during a meeting where they discussed the payment to Daniels. He stole thousands from the Trump Organization. And he lied to or omitted material information about an October phone call with Trump’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller. Also, during his testimony, Cohen blamed his legal troubles on being “knee-deep in the cult” of President Trump, showing that he lacked any sense of personal accountability. Lest there be any doubt about Cohen’s character, watch his belligerent rants online, where he states how much he wants Trump to go to prison while wearing a shirt depicting Trump behind bars.

Cohen had about as much credibility as those claiming that the government faked the moon landing or that Elvis faked his death.

Incredibly, however, the jury believed at least some of Cohen’s testimony because Cohen was the only witness who could testify to, among other things, Trump’s specific intent to defraud voters and promote or prevent the election of any person to public office.[3]  Given that the trial occurred in Manhattan and that at least some jurors despised Trump, this should not be surprising. Moreover, although some commentators made much of the fact that there were two lawyers on the jury, this did not bode well for President Trump. One attorney, who moved to New York from Oregon, has lived in Chelsea for five years, which is notoriously liberal.  The other lawyer worked as a civil litigator at a firm in New York City, and firms in New York City are overwhelmingly liberal.

Regardless, is the jury’s reliance on Cohen’s testimony a basis to reverse the decision? No. Jurors are given wide latitude to credit or discredit the testimony of a witness, and an appellate court will not second-guess the jury’s fact-finding.

            Prediction: Unsuccessful.

    6.    The charge that Trump falsified business records.

Based on the evidence, the jury concluded that President Trump falsified business records. The facts suggested that after Stormy Daniels threatened to go public with her story, Cohen established a corporation, from which he paid $130,000 to Daniels after obtaining a home equity loan. Trump subsequently reimbursed Cohen for the money that he paid to Daniels.

President Trump’s accountant designated these payments as “legal expenses,” using a drop-down menu on a computer to make this designation. Why this designation was improper given that Trump made the reimbursement in connection with a legally enforceable non-disclosure agreement is unclear. And one can certainly question precisely how President Trump “caused” the records to be falsified—if they even constituted falsification. What’s more, the entries into the business records were made after the 2016 election. Thus, how can President Trump be found guilty of falsifying business records to promote or prevent the election of a candidate when the election is already over?

The appellate courts, however, will probably not focus on this issue because it will likely defer to the jury’s fact-finding.   

            Prediction: Unsuccessful.

    7.    Judge Merchan’s jury instructions.

This is where President Trump will succeed on appeal.

Judge Merchan allowed the jury to reach a non-unanimous verdict on the underlying crime(s) that elevated a misdemeanor barred by the statute of limitations into a felony.

To best explain this, consider the following examples: The crime of armed robbery typically requires a person to: (1) take the property of another; (2) without their consent; and (3) with the use of force. To obtain a conviction, all three elements must be satisfied. But the jury need not be unanimous on, for example, how the defendant used force. Some might conclude that the defendant used a gun, while others may conclude that the defendant used a knife. Unanimity on the underlying means is unnecessary if all jurors agree that the defendant used force because the use of force is the element that must be satisfied. Likewise, first-degree murder requires that the defendant: (1) intentionally; (2) kill another person. To convict, the jury must only agree that the defendant acted intentionally to cause the death of another person. It need not agree, however, on whether the defendant killed a person with a gun, a knife, or an ax.

The New York election law is different. It prohibits a candidate from: (1) promoting or preventing the election of a candidate; (2) by unlawful means. Unlike the robbery or murder examples, which specify the conduct needed to satisfy each element (e.g., the use of force), the New York law, in using the vague term “unlawful means,” does not delineate what conduct constitutes “unlawful means.” As such, the “unlawful means” element arguably permits a jury to choose among numerous crimes to convict the defendant without agreeing unanimously that the elements of any single crime were satisfied.

In President Trump’s trial, this is precisely what occurred. The prosecution stated in its closing argument that in deciding whether Trump was guilty of a second underlying crime, the jury could conclude that Trump violated campaign finance law, federal tax law, or engaged in additional falsification of business records. To make matters worse, Judge Merchan instructed the jury that they must only reach unanimity on which underlying crime was committed—not on whether the elements of any underlying crime were satisfied.[4]

In so doing, Judge Merchan permitted the jurors to convict Trump without unanimous agreement that the elements of any single crime were satisfied. Thus, if four jurors agreed that Trump was guilty of a federal campaign finance violation, four agreed that he was guilty of violating federal tax law, and four agreed that he was guilty of falsifying additional business records, Trump could be convicted. In fact, to date, we still do not know what underlying crime(s) the jury found Trump to have committed. This instruction arguably violated the United States Supreme Court’s decisions in Ramos v. Louisiana and Richardson v. United States.[5]

That instruction was a reversible error. And it may not be the only one.

By allowing the prosecution to proceed on an indictment that never specified the underlying crime that elevated the misdemeanor (falsification of business records) to a felony, the prosecution deprived President Trump of his Sixth Amendment right to know the nature of the charges that he was facing. That is precisely why, to this day, we have no idea what underlying crime the jurors reached an agreement upon.

That is the point – and the problem.

Additionally, the law upon which Trump was convicted–N.Y. Election Law 17-152–should be deemed unconstitutional because the term “unlawful means" is vague and essentially permits a jury to convict a defendant even if they do not agree on the underlying crime constituting the "unlawful means," and even if they do not agree unanimously that the underlying elements of any single crime have been satisfied.  

            Prediction: Successful.

***

One must wonder why these charges were ever brought. Convicting a former and possibly future president based on conduct occurring eighteen years ago, which involved an alleged “falsification of business records” that occurred eight years ago, is concerning. It suggests that the legal system is being weaponized against a political opponent. After all, if President Biden had engaged in this conduct, do you think that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg would have brought these charges? Of course not.

That, again, is the point – and the problem.[6]

Trump’s conviction will be overturned.

 

[1] Specifically, during its opening statement, the prosecution told the jury that “Cohen will also testify in this trial that he ultimately pled guilty and went to jail for causing an unlawful corporate contribution in connection with the Karen McDougal payments and for making an excessive campaign contribution in connection with the Stormy Daniels payoff.” 

[2] See Peter Sterne, Why Did New York’s Highest Court Overturn Harvey Weinstein’s Conviction? (April 29, 2024), available at: Why did New York’s highest court overturn Harvey Weinstein’s conviction? - City & State New York (cityandstateny.com)

[3] See N.Y. Election Law 17-152.

[4] Consider by analogy the following law: “It shall be unlawful to physically harm a person through unlawful means.” This would allow a jury to convict a defendant even if four jurors agreed that the harm occurred through kidnapping, four others agreed that the harm occurred through assault, and four others agreed that the harm occurred through battery. In such a circumstance, the jurors would not agree unanimously that the defendant’s conduct satisfied the elements of any single crime. That should prohibit a conviction.

[5] 590 U.S. 83 (2020); 526 U.S. 813 (1999).

[6] Recently, Judge Merchan notified the parties that, on May 29, 2024, a cousin of one of the jurors allegedly posted on a social media website stating as follows: "My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted! Thank you folks for all your hard work!!!!" See Ella Lee, Trump Hush Money Judge Flags Facebook User Claiming Early Knowledge of the Verdict (May 29, 2024), available at: Trump hush money judge flags Facebook user claiming early knowledge of verdict (thehill.com)