Katrina Post-Mortem

For those who've missed it, the Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina is now available on-line.  Titled "A Failure of Initiative," it provides a sobering portrait of all that went wrong.  Featured findings include the following:

1.  The accuracy and timeliness of National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecasts prevented further loss of life.

2.  The Hurricae Pam exercise reflected recognition by all levels of government of the dangers of a category 4 or 5 hurricane striking New Orleans.

3.  Levees protecting New Orleans were not built for the most severe hurricanes.

4.  The failure of complete evacuations led to preventable deaths, great suffering, and further delays in relief.

5.  Critical elements of the National Response Plan were executied late, ineffectively, or not at all.

6.  DHS (Department of Homeland Security) and the states were not prepared for this catastrophic event.

7.  Massive communications damage and a failure to adequately plan for alternatives impaired response efforts, command and control, and situational awareness.

8.  Command and control was impaired at all levels, delaying relief.

9.  The military played an invaluable role, but coordination was lacking.

10. The collapse of local law enforcement and lack of effective public communications led to civil unrest and further delayed relief.

11. Medical care and evacuations suffered from a lack of advance preparations, inadequate communications, and difficulties coordinating efforts.

12.  Long-standing weaknesses and the magnitude of the disaster overwhelmed FEMA's ability to provide emergency shelter and temporary housing.

13.  FEMA logistics and contracting systems did not support a targeted, massive, and sustained provision of commodities.

14.  Contributions by charitable organizations assisted many in need, but the American Red Cross and others faced hallenges due to the size of the mission, inadequate logistics capacity, and a disorganized shelter process.

There's lots of blame to go around.

It's time to prepare for the 2006 Hurricane Season.  Predictions from Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, issued in December, suggest that the probability for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall is as follows in the specified coastal areas: (a) entire US coastline (81% compared to 52% average for the last century; (b) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida (64% compared to the average for the last century of 31%); (c) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville TX (47% compared to the average for the last century of 30%); and (d) above average landfall risk in the Carribbean. He anticipates a total of 5 intensive hurricanes (compared to 9 in 2005), and "net total cyclonic activity" of 195 (compared to 263 in 2005).

Dr. Gray's next prediction is due in early April.  Stay tuned.