New Titles from the Brookings Institution Press

The Federal Budget, Third Edition
Politics, Policies, Process
Allen Schick

c. 320pp., Brookings Institution Press 2007
Paper Text, 978-0-8157-7735-9, $22.95 

Book Description: The federal budget impacts American policies both at home and abroad, and recent concern over the exploding budgetary deficit has experts calling our nation’s policies "unsustainable" and "system-dooming." As the deficit continues to grow, will America be fully able to fund its priorities, such as an effective military and looking after its aging population?

In this third edition of his classic book The Federal Budget, Allen Schick examines how surpluses projected during the final years of the Clinton presidency turned into oversized deficits under George W. Bush. In his detailed analysis of the politics and practices surrounding the federal budget, Schick addresses issues such as the collapse of the congressional budgetary process and the threat posed by the termination of discretionary spending caps. This edition updates and expands his assessment of the long-term budgetary outlook, and it concludes with a look at how the nation’s deficit will affect America now and in the future.

Blindside
How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics
Francis Fukuyama, ed.

c. 198pp., Brookings Institution Press, 2007
Trade Cloth, 978-0-8157-2990-7, $27.95 

Book Description: A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—such as the sudden end of the cold war—have caught governments and societies unprepared in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined, our lives. We have every reason to expect more surprises in future.

Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can pose major policy challenges. Contemporary policymakers, however, lack the understanding and the tools they need to manage low-probability, high-impact events. Refining our understanding and developing such tools are the twin foci of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine.

Organized into five sections, Blindside addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for negative low-probability events and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. Case studies pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and other chapters examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. The book's final section offers a debate and two discussions with internationally prominent authorities who assess how individuals, communities, and local and national governments have handled low-probability, high-impact contingencies. They suggest what these entities can do to move forward in a period of heightened concern about both man-made and natural disasters.

How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But we first must understand the obstacles that prevent us from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.