IPCC: No Longer Any Doubt that Human-Generated Greenhouse Gases Account for Most of Global Warming

In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (full report forthcoming), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change. What's the bottom line? The IPCC is 90 percent certain that that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from human activities account for most of the global rise in temperatures over the past half-century. Click of graphic (left) to enlarge IPCC's Global and Continental Temperature Change tables.

The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also participated. Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised the Summary line-by-line during the course of last week before adopting it and accepting the underlying report on February 2, 2007.

• Official Summary of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
• Feb. 2, 2007 Webcast of IPCC Announcement of Findings
• Additional IPCC Resources

A Day to Remember. Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, which administers the IPCC along with the World Meteorological Organization, stated, “Feb. 2 will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet. ... The evidence is on the table.” Quoted in, Science Panel Calls Global Warming 'Unequivocal', New York Times (Feb. 3, 2007). Several attendees at the February 2 meeting credited the head of the panel session, Susan Solomon, a top U.S. government climate scientist, with pushing through the agreement so quickly.

Global Warming Politics. The Chinese delegation was resistant to the strong wording on global warming in the report so one can expect that 90 percent is an insufficient degree of certainty for the Chinese govenment. Except no climate control legislation on that front. Nor can one expect the Bush Administration to take action since it still rejects mandatory limits of greenhouse gases. For the rest of us, this report's conclusion represents the definitive international scientific and political consensus on climate science.

To measure recent interest in climate change issues in Congress, my co-editor and Cincinnati Law colleague, Ron Jones, has identified the following CRS reports (details for each below the fold):

• CLIMATE CHANGE: GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION BILLS IN THE 110TH CONGRESS (released 1/31/07)
• CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS (released 1/25/07)
• CLIMATE CHANGE: FEDERAL EXPENDITURES  (released 1/22/07)
• CLIMATE CHANGE: ACTION BY STATES TO ADDRESS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (released 1/18/07)
• CLIMATE CHANGE: DESIGN APPROACHES FOR A GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION PROGRAM (released 1/16/07)
• CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION IN THE 109TH CONGRESS (released 1/3/07)

On the Agenda. We are planning to publish several more climate control posts later this week so we hope you will stop by to "read all about it." Your contributions are welcome. You can email them to me at joe.hodnicki@gmail.com [JH]

CLIMATE CHANGE: GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION BILLS IN THE 110TH CONGRESS   
CRS Publication Date:  01/31/2007
Document No.:  RL33846
Author(s):  Larry Parker, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  A number of congressional proposals to advance programs that reduce greenhouse gases have been introduced in the 110th Congress. Proposals receiving particular attention would create market-based greenhouse gas reduction programs along the lines of the trading provisions of the current acid rain reduction program established by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. This paper presents a side-byside comparison of the major provisions of those bills and includes a glossary of common terms.

CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS   
CRS Publication Date:  01/25/2007
Document No.:  RL33849
Author(s):  Jane A. Leggett, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  This report presents an overview of the science of climate change and its potential impacts. It provides highlights on the impacts of climate change itself; it does not address the mitigation of climate change (e.g., by controlling greenhouse gas emissions) nor the economic issues associated with it. This report is organized into four topics: Climate change and impacts that have been observed. Forces that are understood to be causing recent climate change. Projections of future climate change and impacts. Implications of climate change science for policy.

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND INTERNATIONAL ACTIONS   
CRS Publication Date:  01/24/2007
Document No.:  RL33826
Author(s):  Susan R. Fletcher and Larry Parker, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  As of December 2006, the UNFCCC Secretariat reported that 168 nations and the European Union have ratified or accepted the Kyoto Protocol. Annual meetings of the parties continue, and attention during the negotiations has turned in large part to "next steps" following the end of the commitment period in 2012, as well as a review of the effectiveness of the Protocol. Major challenges remain to find agreement on the nature of commitments, if any, that would prove acceptable to all major players: current parties, developing countries that are major emitters, and the United States.

CLIMATE CHANGE: FEDERAL EXPENDITURES   
CRS Publication Date:  01/22/2007
Document No.:  RL33817
Author(s):  Jane A. Leggett, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  Key policy issues associated with federal climate change expenditures include the following: choosing priorities across science and technology research and development, programs to encourage mitigation of greenhouse gases, and adaptation to potential future climate change; articulating sufficiently measurable goals and milestones against which to track progress; improving clarity of reported funding, including changes in reporting rules over time, and evaluating effectiveness; maintaining stability of funding or preferential tax treatments and the relationship to programs' effectiveness; and balancing priorities within agencies of expenditures for climate change versus other spending priorities in a tight fiscal environment.

CLIMATE CHANGE: ACTION BY STATES TO ADDRESS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS   
CRS Publication Date:  01/18/2007
Document No.:  RL33812
Author(s):  Jonathan L. Ramseur, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  This report covers state actions that directly and explicitly address greenhouse gas emissions. First, the report describes the different types of state actions, both individual and cooperative efforts, that are either proposed or underway, and highlights several of the more significant developments. Second, the report examines state actions from a federal policymaking perspective, including both the potential effects of state-led actions and their limitations.

CLIMATE CHANGE: DESIGN APPROACHES FOR A GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION PROGRAM   
CRS Publication Date:  01/16/2007
Document No.:  RL33799
Author(s):  Larry Parker, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  Because a stalemate has persisted on strategies to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly because of cost uncertainties, attention has increasingly focused on options to address these concerns and to move the debate forward. These options range from incremental mechanisms within a tradeable permit program, such as banking and borrowing of credits, that have a minimal effect on overall emission reduction targets goals to more fundamental proposals, such as a carbon tax, that would take climate change policy in a new and somewhat uncharted direction. This paper explores these options to address the cost issue in four parts. First, the basic economic tradeoff between controlling the quantity of GHG emissions and the program's compliance costs is introduced and explained. Second, the five dimensions of the cost issue that have arisen so far in the climate change debate are identified and discussed. Third, a representative sample of proposed aproaches to address cost concerns is compared and analyzed according to the five cost dimensions identified previously. Finally, the proposed options are summarized and opportunities to combine or merge different approaches are analyzed. 

CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION IN THE 109TH CONGRESS   
CRS Publication Date:  01/03/2007
Document No.:  RL32955
Author(s):  Brent D. Yacobucci, Resources, Science, and Industry Division

Abstract:  Climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were issues in the 109th Congress, as they had been in past Congresses. Bills directly addressing climate change issues ranged from those focused primarily on climate change research to comprehensive emissions cap-and-trade programs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Additional bills focused on GHG reporting and registries, or on power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, as part of wider controls on pollutant emissions. Within several broad categories, the bills varied in their approaches to climate change issues. For example, some bills covering research issues focused solely on modeling the effects of future climate change, whereas others addressed the development of monitoring technologies. Bills focusing on technology deployment did so through tax incentives and credit-based programs within the United States or by promoting deployment in developing countries. Bills with greenhouse gas registries were either voluntary or mandatory and varied in the entities covered and the gases registered. Bills with emission reduction requirements also varied in the entities covered, the gases limited, and the target emissions levels. Most notably, on August 8, 2005, President Bush signed the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58, H.R. 6). Among other provisions, Title XVI of the bill established programs to promote the development and deployment of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas intensity. This report briefly discusses the basic concepts on which these bills were based and compares major provisions of the bills in each of the following categories: climate change research, technology deployment, GHG reporting and registries, and emissions reduction programs.

CRS Reports can be obtained from www.GalleryWatch.com. Individual reports are available from www.pennyhill.com. [RJ]