Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Kotkin on the Protean Future of American Cities and growth at the edge

Joel Kotkin has another "New Geographer" column at Forbes challenging some prevailing attitudes about urbanism, using some early Census data.  From The Protean Future of American Cities:

The ongoing Census reveals the continuing evolution of America’s cities from small urban cores to dispersed, multi-polar regions that includes the city’s surrounding areas and suburbs. This is not exactly what most urban pundits, and journalists covering cities, would like to see, but the reality is there for anyone who reads the numbers. . . .

But the bigger story — all but ignored by the mainstream media — is the continued evolution of urban regions toward a more dispersed, multi-centered form. Brookings’ Robert Lang has gone even further, using the term “edgeless cities” to describe what he calls an increasingly “elusive metropolis” with highly dispersed employment.

Rather than a cause for alarm, this form of development simply reflects the protean vitality of American urban forms. . . .

Houston Tomorrow president David Crossley, however, sees some of the same trends from Census data on the Houston region, and (tongue-in-cheek) credits the dispersal of new population into the edges as a "Brilliant Government Success":

Houston Tomorrow’s analysis shows that public policy aimed at moving growth away from our 134 towns, cities, and villages to the unincorporated areas of the 13 counties has been breathtakingly successful. In the 2000 Census, our towns and cities had 65% of all the population. In the new numbers, that share drops to 58%. That’s because fully 71% of all the growth was in unincorporated areas.

Crossley is concerned with the sprawl and reverse-urban trends that this growth indicates.  This is going to be a lively debate for the foreseeable future; as more Census data comes out we can expect to see a lot more analysis.  I know Kotkin's normative claims get a lot of pushback but I don't know about his descriptive analysis--the demographic numbers certainly are compelling, as Crossley's less sangine take indicates.

Matt Festa

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/land_use/2011/03/kotkin-on-the-protean-future-of-american-cities.html

Density, Downtown, Exurbs, Federal Government, History, Sprawl, Suburbs, Urbanism | Permalink

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Comments

It seems to me that the defenders of sprawl are getting a bit desperate.

Ten or twenty years ago, sprawl apologists were predicting the demise of cities.

Now that many formerly declining cities (such as DC) are (1) growing again and (2) in particular are doing especially well at retaining people who can afford to live elsewhere, they are reduced to arguing that yes, cities are growing but that suburbs are growing faster.

I can't help thinking of the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, who kept fighting even after his arms were cut off:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eMkth8FWno

Posted by: Michael Lewyn | Mar 8, 2011 7:59:41 AM

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