Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The excellent Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University has issued its report on the Housing Market: 2010 First Half Recap. Authored by research economist James P. Gaines, the report has analysis of the national and Texas markets and a preliminary forecast for the next six months. It's a quick read. From the analysis:
The housing market during the first half of 2010 showed marked improvement over the same period in 2009 largely attributable to unprecedented government stimulation. Year-over-year data comparisons for the first six months of 2010 with the same period in 2009, when the original tax credit was just getting under way, suggest an improving market. However, sustainability during the second half of the year with no incentives remains questionable.
The second half of 2010 holds significant challenges for the housing market. It remains to be seen to what extent the private market can support the market without significant government inducements. Pending sales, nationally and in most Texas communities, and applications for purchase mortgage financing are depressed substantially, indicating much-reduced sales volumes in the next few months.
Dr. Gaines concludes, however, that if there is less-than-exepected dropoff in the coming months, it could be a sign of economic recovery. If you're not familiar with the Real Estate Center, they are an outstanding resource for reports and data; they also have a regular listserv and podcast.