Monday, November 2, 2009
Josh Martin, urban planning dynamo of South Carolina's Coastal Conservation League, circulated an informative article today: Arthur C. Nelson, "Demographic Outlook," Urban Land (Sept. 2009). The article predicts that the United States will experience an unprecedented shift in demographics between 2005 and 2030, one that will affect housing markets in significant ways, especially in the area of multifamily housing. Increasing numbers of seniors and single-person households without children will dominate. Minority household growth will nearly triple that of white, or non-Hispanic, households. In other words, households as we move toward 2030 will become older and more racially diverse. In fact, the age group 65+ will experience a 96.6% increase--45.5% of the overall share of change. At the same time, seniors share an affinity for the same type of housing as the second-largest share of the growth: the single-person household in the 25-35-year old range. What kind of housing do they favor? Smaller units in mutli-family arrangements. Demand for rental housing will also increase as lending markets return to more conventional methods of home financing, thereby all but shutting out sub-prime borrowers except in limited or highly restricted circumstances. Preference for rentals will also be strengthened by fear of recent events in the nation's real estate markets. Rising energy prices will bolster this preference. As a result, families will seek to congregate in denser, urban areas. Acting on these preferences in most places, however, is illegal because of zoning laws that do not allow them. Therefore, cities will need to rewrite exisiting codes to keep pace with consumer demand. If they fail to act, single-family detached homes will continue to be overbuilt relative to the emerging demand.
Will Cook, Charleston School of Law
This blog is an Amazon affiliate. Help support Land Use Prof Blog by making purchases through Amazon links on this site at no cost to you.
- Stephen R. Miller on Why are building inspectors so often on the take?
- Josh Hightree on What makes people leave rural areas, and what makes them stay
- Jessica Shoemaker on What makes people leave rural areas, and what makes them stay
- Jamie Baker Roskie on Why are building inspectors so often on the take?
- Stephen R. Miller on What makes people leave rural areas, and what makes them stay
- March 4-6: Stanford 2015 Rural West Conference: Preservation and Transformation: The Future of the Rural West
- March 3 - J.B. Ruhl to deliver Boehl Distinguished Lecture in Land Use Policy at U Louisville Law
- Is this blog post "advertising"? California's bar proposes bright-line rule for regulating attorney blogs
- Two upcoming RMMLF events: 61st Annual Institute (July 16-18 in Anchorage) and 17th Institute for Natural Resources Law Teachers (May 27-29 at Utah Law)
- First Principles for Regulating the Sharing Economy