International Financial Law Prof Blog

Editor: William Byrnes
Texas A&M University
School of Law

Monday, April 9, 2018

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services February 2018

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods
and services deficit was $57.6 billion in February, up $0.9 billion from $56.7 billion in January,
revised. 
Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)
Goods and Services Trade Deficit
February exports were $204.4 billion, $3.5 billion more than January exports. February imports
were $262.0 billion, $4.4 billion more than January imports.

The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit
of $0.3 billion to $77.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $19.4
billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $21.1 billion, or 22.7 percent, from the
same period in 2017. Exports increased $22.4 billion or 5.9 percent. Imports increased $43.6 billion
or 9.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $2.2 billion to $56.1 billion for the three
months ending in February.
     * Average exports increased $1.4 billion to $203.0 billion in February.
     * Average imports increased $3.6 billion to $259.1 billion in February.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $10.1 billion from the three
months ending in February 2017.
     * Average exports increased $12.2 billion from February 2017.
     * Average imports increased $22.3 billion from February 2017.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $3.0 billion to $137.2 billion in February.
  Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $3.1 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.0 billion.
          o Nonmonetary gold increased $0.6 billion.
          o Crude oil increased $0.3 billion.
          o Natural gas increased $0.3 billion.
     * Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.9 billion.
          o Passenger cars increased $0.7 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $0.7 billion.
          o Civilian aircraft increased $0.2 billion.
          o Drilling and oilfield equipment increased $0.2 billion.
     * Consumer goods decreased $0.8 billion.
          o Pharmaceutical preparations decreased $0.6 billion.
  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $67.3 billion in February.
     * Transport increased $0.2 billion.
     * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
     * Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $3.3 billion to $214.2 billion in February.
  Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $3.5 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $1.8 billion.
          o Civilian aircraft increased $0.5 billion.
          o Materials-handling equipment increased $0.3 billion.
          o Computers increased $0.3 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $0.8 billion.
          o Crude oil increased $0.7 billion.
     * Foods, feeds, and beverages increased $0.8 billion.
  Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $1.1 billion to $47.8 billion in February.
     * The largest increase was in charges for the use of intellectual property ($1.0 billion).
       The increase reflects payments for the rights to broadcast the 2018 Winter Olympic Games.
     * The largest decrease was in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.2 billion).

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased $0.9 billion to $69.1 billion in February.
     * Real exports of goods increased $2.5 billion to $129.4 billion.
     * Real imports of goods increased $1.7 billion to $198.5 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to January exports
     * Exports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
     * Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Revisions to January imports
     * Imports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
     * Imports of services were revised down less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America
($3.4), Hong Kong ($3.1), Brazil ($0.9), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Singapore ($0.5). Deficits
were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($34.7), European Union ($15.3), Germany ($6.7),
Mexico ($6.6), Japan ($6.0), Italy ($2.8), OPEC ($2.3), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($1.4),
South Korea ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Canada ($0.4).

     * The deficit with Mexico increased $1.0 billion to $6.6 billion in February. Exports decreased
       less than $0.1 billion to $21.9 billion and imports increased $0.9 billion to $28.5 billion.
     * The deficit with Germany increased $0.4 billion to $6.7 billion in February. Exports decreased
       $0.2 billion to $4.7 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $11.3 billion.
     * The deficit with Canada decreased $1.2 billion to $0.4 billion in February. Exports increased
       $1.2 billion to $26.1 billion and imports increased less than $0.1 billion to $26.4 billion.

April 9, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

The Brave New World of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is a game-changer. It could boost global productivity from 0.8% to 1.4% a year. But with thorny issues like job automation and data privacy, does AI-spurred growth come at a cost?

The OECD has released a video exploring the issues of AI.

 



April 4, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, March 31, 2018

U.S. Net International Investment Position Fourth Quarter and Year 2017

Fourth Quarter 2017

The U.S. net international investment position decreased to -$7,845.8 billion (preliminary) at the end of the fourth quarter from -$7,739.7 billion (revised) at the end of the third quarter, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $106.1 billion decrease reflected a $727.2 billion increase in U.S. assets and an $833.3 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

The $106.1 billion decrease in the net investment position reflected net financial transactions of -$52.4 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of -$53.8 billion (table A).

The net investment position decreased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the third quarter. The net investment position decreased an average of 5.0 percent per quarter from the first quarter of 2011 through the second quarter of 2017.

U.S. assets increased $727.2 billion to $27,632.8 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $809.8 billion to $26,010.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $658.8 billion and financial transactions of $151.0 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected (1) foreign equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity assets and (2) the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions mostly reflected net acquisition of portfolio investment debt securities and direct investment equity assets.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $82.6 billion to $1,622.5 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.
Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Position, 2017:III Change in position in 2017:IV Position, 2017:IV
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -7,739.7 -106.1 -52.4 -53.8 -7,845.8
Net position excluding financial derivatives -7,773.5 -100.6 -53.2 -47.5 -7,874.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 33.8 -5.5 0.8 -6.3 28.3
U.S. assets 26,905.6 727.2 (2) (2) 27,632.8
Assets excluding financial derivatives 25,200.5 809.8 151.0 658.8 26,010.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,705.1 -82.6 (2) (2) 1,622.5
U.S. liabilities 34,645.3 833.3 (2) (2) 35,478.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 32,974.0 910.5 204.2 706.3 33,884.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,671.3 -77.1 (2) (2) 1,594.2
1 Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2 Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $833.3 billion to $35,478.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $910.5 billion to $33,884.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $706.3 billion and financial transactions of $204.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity liabilities. Financial transactions reflected net incurrence of liabilities in all major investment categories.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $77.1 billion to $1,594.2 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

Updates to Statistics

Table B. Updates to Third Quarter 2017 International Investment Position AggregatesBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position -7,768.7 -7,739.7
  U.S. assets 26,854.9 26,905.6
    Direct investment at market value 8,580.6 8,595.4
    Portfolio investment 11,860.1 11,905.5
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,705.1 1,705.1
    Other investment 4,252.5 4,243.0
    Reserve assets 456.6 456.6
  U.S. liabilities 34,623.6 34,645.3
    Direct investment at market value 8,452.8 8,454.1
    Portfolio investment 19,043.2 19,057.9
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,671.3 1,671.3
    Other investment 5,456.2 5,461.9

Year 2017

The U.S. net international investment position increased to -$7,845.8 billion (preliminary) at the end of 2017 from -$8,318.4 billion at the end of 2016. The $472.6 billion increase reflected a $3,783.4 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $3,310.8 billion increase in U.S. liabilities.

U.S. assets increased $3,783.4 billion to $27,632.8 billion at the end of 2017, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $4,369.9 billion to $26,010.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $3,157.5 billion and financial transactions of $1,212.4 billion (table C). Other changes in position mostly reflected (1) foreign equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity assets and (2) the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions reflected net acquisition of assets in all major investment categories, except reserve assets.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $586.5 billion to $1,622.5 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.
Table C. Annual Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars
  Position, 2016 Change in position in 2017 Position, 2017
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -8,318.4 472.6 -349.2 821.8 -7,845.8
Net position excluding financial derivatives -8,379.7 505.6 -375.6 881.2 -7,874.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 61.3 -33.0 26.4 -59.4 28.3
U.S. assets 23,849.4 3,783.4 (2) (2) 27,632.8
Assets excluding financial derivatives 21,640.5 4,369.9 1,212.4 3,157.5 26,010.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 2,209.0 -586.5 (2) (2) 1,622.5
U.S. liabilities 32,167.8 3,310.8 (2) (2) 35,478.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 30,020.1 3,864.3 1,587.9 2,276.4 33,884.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 2,147.7 -553.5 (2) (2) 1,594.2
1Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $3,310.8 billion to $35,478.6 billion at the end of 2017, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $3,864.3 billion to $33,884.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $2,276.4 billion and financial transactions of $1,587.9 billion (table C). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity liabilities. Financial transactions reflected net incurrence of liabilities in all major investment categories.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $553.5 billion to $1,594.2 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

March 31, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

U.S. Net International Investment Position Fourth Quarter and Year 2017

Fourth Quarter 2017

The U.S. net international investment position decreased to -$7,845.8 billion (preliminary) at the end of the fourth quarter from -$7,739.7 billion (revised) at the end of the third quarter, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $106.1 billion decrease reflected a $727.2 billion increase in U.S. assets and an $833.3 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

The $106.1 billion decrease in the net investment position reflected net financial transactions of -$52.4 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of -$53.8 billion (table A).

The net investment position decreased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the third quarter. The net investment position decreased an average of 5.0 percent per quarter from the first quarter of 2011 through the second quarter of 2017.

U.S. assets increased $727.2 billion to $27,632.8 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $809.8 billion to $26,010.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $658.8 billion and financial transactions of $151.0 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected (1) foreign equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity assets and (2) the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions mostly reflected net acquisition of portfolio investment debt securities and direct investment equity assets.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $82.6 billion to $1,622.5 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.
Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Position, 2017:III Change in position in 2017:IV Position, 2017:IV
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -7,739.7 -106.1 -52.4 -53.8 -7,845.8
Net position excluding financial derivatives -7,773.5 -100.6 -53.2 -47.5 -7,874.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 33.8 -5.5 0.8 -6.3 28.3
U.S. assets 26,905.6 727.2 (2) (2) 27,632.8
Assets excluding financial derivatives 25,200.5 809.8 151.0 658.8 26,010.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,705.1 -82.6 (2) (2) 1,622.5
U.S. liabilities 34,645.3 833.3 (2) (2) 35,478.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 32,974.0 910.5 204.2 706.3 33,884.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,671.3 -77.1 (2) (2) 1,594.2
1 Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2 Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $833.3 billion to $35,478.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $910.5 billion to $33,884.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $706.3 billion and financial transactions of $204.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity liabilities. Financial transactions reflected net incurrence of liabilities in all major investment categories.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $77.1 billion to $1,594.2 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

Updates to Statistics

Table B. Updates to Third Quarter 2017 International Investment Position AggregatesBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position -7,768.7 -7,739.7
  U.S. assets 26,854.9 26,905.6
    Direct investment at market value 8,580.6 8,595.4
    Portfolio investment 11,860.1 11,905.5
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,705.1 1,705.1
    Other investment 4,252.5 4,243.0
    Reserve assets 456.6 456.6
  U.S. liabilities 34,623.6 34,645.3
    Direct investment at market value 8,452.8 8,454.1
    Portfolio investment 19,043.2 19,057.9
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,671.3 1,671.3
    Other investment 5,456.2 5,461.9

Year 2017

The U.S. net international investment position increased to -$7,845.8 billion (preliminary) at the end of 2017 from -$8,318.4 billion at the end of 2016. The $472.6 billion increase reflected a $3,783.4 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $3,310.8 billion increase in U.S. liabilities.

U.S. assets increased $3,783.4 billion to $27,632.8 billion at the end of 2017, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $4,369.9 billion to $26,010.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $3,157.5 billion and financial transactions of $1,212.4 billion (table C). Other changes in position mostly reflected (1) foreign equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity assets and (2) the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions reflected net acquisition of assets in all major investment categories, except reserve assets.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $586.5 billion to $1,622.5 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.
Table C. Annual Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars
  Position, 2016 Change in position in 2017 Position, 2017
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -8,318.4 472.6 -349.2 821.8 -7,845.8
Net position excluding financial derivatives -8,379.7 505.6 -375.6 881.2 -7,874.1
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 61.3 -33.0 26.4 -59.4 28.3
U.S. assets 23,849.4 3,783.4 (2) (2) 27,632.8
Assets excluding financial derivatives 21,640.5 4,369.9 1,212.4 3,157.5 26,010.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 2,209.0 -586.5 (2) (2) 1,622.5
U.S. liabilities 32,167.8 3,310.8 (2) (2) 35,478.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 30,020.1 3,864.3 1,587.9 2,276.4 33,884.4
Financial derivatives other than reserves 2,147.7 -553.5 (2) (2) 1,594.2
1Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $3,310.8 billion to $35,478.6 billion at the end of 2017, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $3,864.3 billion to $33,884.4 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $2,276.4 billion and financial transactions of $1,587.9 billion (table C). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the value of portfolio investment and direct investment equity liabilities. Financial transactions reflected net incurrence of liabilities in all major investment categories.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $553.5 billion to $1,594.2 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts and foreign exchange contracts.

March 31, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, March 29, 2018

USA personal income and outlays, February 2018

Personal income increased $67.3 billion (0.4 percent) in February according to estimates released today
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $53.9 billion (0.4 percent)
and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in February and Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent. The PCE price
index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

                                                         2017                  2018
                                                Oct.     Nov.     Dec.     Jan.     Feb.
                                                   Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
 Current dollars                                0.4      0.3      0.4      0.4      0.4
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                                0.3      0.3      0.4      1.0      0.4
 Chained (2009) dollars                         0.1      0.1      0.2      0.6      0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
 Current dollars                                0.3      0.7      0.5      0.2      0.2
 Chained (2009) dollars                         0.2      0.5      0.3     -0.2      0.0
Price indexes:
 PCE                                            0.2      0.2      0.1      0.4      0.2
 PCE, excluding food and energy                 0.2      0.1      0.2      0.3      0.2

Price indexes:                                   Percent change from month one year ago
 PCE                                            1.6      1.7      1.7      1.7      1.8
 PCE, excluding food and energy                 1.5      1.5      1.5      1.5      1.6

The increase in personal income in February primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and nonfarm
proprietors’ income (table 3).

The $1.4 billion increase in real PCE in February reflected an increase of $1.0 billion in spending for goods
and a $0.5 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles
was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, financial services and insurance was the leading
contributor to the increase. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $27.8 billion in February (table 3). Personal saving was $497.4 billion in February and
the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.4 percent (table 1).

                                2017 Personal Income and Outlays

Personal income (table 6) increased 3.1 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level),
compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2016. DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2017 compared with an increase of
2.6 percent in 2016. In 2017, PCE increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in 2016.

Real DPI increased 1.2 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in 2016. Real PCE (table 8) increased
2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in 2016.

                                Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for October through January. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar
personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI and PCE  -- revised and as published in last month's
release -- are shown below.

                                                        Change from preceding month
                                               December                                   January
                                Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised   Previous   Revised
                               (Billions of dollars)      (Percent)      (Billions of dollars)      (Percent)
Personal income:
 Current dollars                    63.2      67.8        0.4       0.4       64.7      74.7        0.4       0.4
Disposable personal income:
 Current dollars                    52.2      56.4        0.4       0.4      134.8     142.7        0.9       1.0
 Chained (2009) dollars             27.4      31.5        0.2       0.2       71.0      75.7        0.6       0.6
Personal consumption expenditures:
 Current dollars                    53.1      62.7        0.4       0.5       31.2      21.3        0.2       0.2
 Chained (2009) dollars             29.3      38.1        0.2       0.3      -17.0     -27.7       -0.1      -0.2

                                Next release:  April 30, 2018 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
                                   Personal Income and Outlays:  March 2018

March 29, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

GDP for 2017: National Income, Corporate Profits, and Product Accounts Looking Strong

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of
2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the
third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the
"second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent.
With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the
same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up (see
"Updates to GDP" on page 2).

 
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of 2.4 percent in the third. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of
U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter (table 1).
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE,
nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state and local government
spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from
private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased
(table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory
investment that was partly offset by accelerations in PCE, exports, state and local government spending,
nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending, and an upturn in residential fixed
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned up.

Current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $19,754.1
billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $250.6 billion (table 1 and table
3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent (appendix table A).


Updates to GDP

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP reflected upward revisions to PCE and private
inventory investment.   For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and
Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the
"Additional Information" section that follows.

                                           Advance Estimate     Second Estimate     Third Estimate
                                                   (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP                                         2.6                 2.5                2.9
Current-dollar GDP                               5.0                 4.9                5.3
Real GDI                                         ...                 ...                0.9
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI                 ...                 ...                1.9
Gross domestic purchases price index             2.5                 2.5                2.5
PCE price index                                  2.8                 2.7                2.7


2017 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level),
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2017 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed
investment, and exports. These contributions were partly offset by a decline in private inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP from 2016 to 2017 reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and
in exports and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment.  These movements were partly offset
by decelerations in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, accelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $766.1 billion, in 2017 to a level of $19,390.6 billion,
compared with an increase of 2.8 percent, or $503.8 billion, in 2016 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase
of 1.0 percent in 2016 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase
of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A).

During 2017 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP
increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016.  The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent during 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during
2016 (table 7).


Corporate Profits (table 12)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) decreased $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of
$90.2 billion in the third quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $14.6 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to
an increase of $47.8 billion in the third. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $19.4
billion, compared with an increase of $10.4 billion. Rest-of-the-world  profits decreased $5.9 billion, in
contrast to an increase of $32.0 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts increased $14.9 billion, and
payments increased $20.8 billion.

In 2017, profits from current production increased $91.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $44.0
billion in 2016. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $15.7 billion, in contrast to a
decrease of $2.0 billion. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $37.4 billion, in contrast
to a decrease of $51.7 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $38.0 billion,
compared with an increase of $9.8 billion.


The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes several provisions that impact the business income and
personal income statistics in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). The provisions do not
impact corporate profits for current production or GDI but do impact net cash flow in the fourth quarter
of 2017. For more information, see the Technical Note.

March 28, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, March 25, 2018

U.S. International Transactions: Fourth Quarter and Year 2017

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $128.2 billion (preliminary) in the fourth
quarter of 2017 from $101.5 billion (revised) in the third quarter, according to statistics
released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.6 percent of current-
dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, up from 2.1 percent in the third
quarter.

Quarterly U.S. Current-Account and Component Balance

The $26.7 billion increase in the current-account deficit mostly reflected increases in the
deficits on goods and secondary income and a decrease in the surplus on primary income.

                  Current-Account Transactions, Fourth Quarter (tables 1-5)

Exports of goods and services and income receipts

Exports of goods and services and income receipts increased $16.6 billion in the fourth quarter
to $878.8 billion.

    * Goods exports increased $14.2 billion to $400.7 billion, mostly reflecting an increase
      in industrial supplies and materials, primarily petroleum and products.

    * Primary income receipts increased $6.0 billion to $243.9 billion, mostly reflecting
      increases in direct investment income and in portfolio investment income.

    * Secondary income receipts decreased $5.9 billion to $35.3 billion, partly offsetting the
      increases in goods exports and in primary income receipts. The decrease in secondary
      income receipts mostly reflected a decrease in U.S. government transfers, primarily fines
      and penalties.

Quarterly U.S. Current-Account Transactions

Imports of goods and services and income payments

Imports of goods and services and income payments increased $43.3 billion to $1,006.9 billion.

    * Goods imports increased $33.1 billion to $614.9 billion, mostly reflecting increases in
      industrial supplies and materials, primarily petroleum and products, and in consumer
      goods except food and automotive.

    * Primary income payments increased $7.3 billion to $186.7 billion, primarily reflecting an
      increase in direct investment income.

                          Capital Account, Fourth Quarter (table 1)

The balance on the capital account shifted to a deficit of less than $0.1 billion in the fourth
quarter from a surplus of $24.9 billion in the third quarter. The third-quarter transactions
reflected receipts from foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from hurricanes Harvey,
Irma, and Maria. For more information, see “What are the effects of hurricanes and other disasters 
on the international economic accounts?”

                  Financial Account, Fourth Quarter (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Net U.S. borrowing measured by financial-account transactions was $29.8 billion in the fourth
quarter, a decrease from net borrowing of $121.8 billion in the third quarter.

Financial assets

Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives decreased $172.8
billion to $177.9 billion.

    * Net U.S. acquisition of portfolio investment assets decreased $95.9 billion to $83.3
      billion, reflecting a shift to net U.S. sales of foreign equity and investment fund
      shares from third-quarter net purchases.

    * Transactions in other investment assets shifted to net U.S. liquidation of $10.7 billion
      in the fourth quarter from net acquisition of $74.7 billion in the third quarter, mostly
      reflecting a shift to net foreign repayment of loans from third-quarter net U.S.
      provision of loans to foreigners.

Liabilities

Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives decreased $282.6 billion to
$208.4 billion.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities decreased $211.5 billion to $84.9
      billion, reflecting a decrease in net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term debt securities
      and a shift to net foreign sales of U.S. equity and investment fund shares from third-
      quarter net foreign purchases.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of direct investment liabilities decreased $49.6 billion to $54.1
      billion, primarily reflecting a shift to net U.S. repayment of debt instrument
      liabilities from third-quarter net incurrence.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of other investment liabilities decreased $21.4 billion to $69.5
      billion, reflecting largely offsetting changes in transactions in loan and deposit
      liabilities. In loans, transactions shifted to net U.S. repayment of loan liabilities
      from third-quarter net incurrence. In deposits, transactions shifted to net incurrence of
      deposit liabilities from third-quarter net foreign withdrawal of deposits in the United
      States.


Financial derivatives

Transactions in financial derivatives other than reserves reflected fourth-quarter net lending
of $0.8 billion, a decrease of $17.8 billion from the third quarter.

                      Statistical Discrepancy, Fourth Quarter (table 1)

The statistical discrepancy was $98.4 billion in the fourth quarter, after a statistical
discrepancy of -$45.2 billion in the third quarter.

         Updates to Third Quarter 2017 International Transactions Accounts Aggregates
                           Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

                                                      Preliminary estimate    Revised estimate


Current-account balance                                       -100.6               -101.5
Goods balance                                                 -195.3               -195.3
   Services balance                                             60.9                 60.0
   Primary-income balance                                       57.0                 58.5
   Secondary-income balance                                    -23.2                -24.7
Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) from
   financial-account transactions                             -105.6               -121.8
Statistical discrepancy                                        -29.9                -45.2

                             Current-Account Balance, Year 2017

The current-account deficit increased to $466.2 billion (preliminary) in 2017 from $451.7
billion in 2016.  The deficit was 2.4 percent of current-dollar GDP in 2017, the same
percentage as in 2016.

The $14.6 billion increase in the deficit reflected a $58.7 billion increase in the deficit on
goods and a $4.9 billion decrease in the surplus on services that were partly offset by a $43.8
billion increase in the surplus on primary income and a $5.3 billion decrease in the deficit on
secondary income.

                    Current-Account Transactions, Year 2017 (tables 1-5)

Exports of goods and services and income receipts

Exports of goods and services and income receipts increased $250.9 billion in 2017 to $3,408.2
billion.

    * Primary income receipts increased $112.9 billion to $926.9 billion, led by an increase in
      direct investment income.

    * Goods exports increased $95.0 billion to $1,550.7 billion, led by an increase in
      industrial supplies and materials.

    * Services exports increased $28.5 billion to $780.9 billion, led by increases in other
      business services and in financial services.

Imports of goods and services and income payments

Imports of goods and services and income payments increased $265.5 billion to $3,874.4 billion.

    * Goods imports increased $153.7 billion to $2,361.9 billion, led by increases in
      industrial supplies and materials and in capital goods except automotive.

    * Primary income payments increased $69.1 billion to $709.9 billion, led by increases in
      portfolio investment income and in other investment income.

    * Services imports increased $33.5 billion to $538.1 billion, led by increases in travel
      (for all purposes including education) and in other business services.

                             Capital Account, Year 2017 (table 1)

Capital transfer receipts were $24.9 billion in 2017. The transactions reflected receipts from
foreign insurance companies for losses resulting from hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. For
more information, see “What are the effects of hurricanes and other disasters on the
international economic accounts?"

                     Financial Account, Year 2017 (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)

Net U.S. borrowing measured by financial-account transactions was $349.2 billion in 2017, a
decrease from net borrowing of $377.7 billion in 2016.

Financial assets

Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives increased $864.5
billion to $1,212.4 billion.

    * Net U.S. acquisition of portfolio investment assets increased $548.9 billion to $589.5
      billion, reflecting increases in net U.S. purchases of foreign debt securities and in net
      purchases of foreign equity and investment fund shares.

    * Transactions in other investment assets shifted to net U.S. acquisition of $200.1 billion
      in 2017 from net liquidation of $6.4 billion in 2016, primarily reflecting a shift to net
      U.S. acquisition of foreign deposits in 2017 from net withdrawal in 2016.

    * Net U.S. acquisition of direct investment assets increased $112.8 billion to $424.4
      billion, reflecting a shift to net U.S. acquisition of debt instruments in 2017 from net
      foreign repayment in 2016 and an increase in net acquisition of equity assets.

Liabilities

Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $846.5 billion to
$1,587.9 billion.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities increased $599.7 billion to
      $837.1 billion, reflecting a shift to net foreign purchases of U.S. equity and investment
      fund shares in 2017 from net foreign sales in 2016 and an increase in net foreign
      purchases of U.S. long-term debt securities.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of other investment liabilities increased $377.6 billion to $402.2
      billion, reflecting a shift to net U.S. incurrence of deposit liabilities in 2017 from
      net foreign withdrawal in 2016 and a shift to net U.S. incurrence of loan liabilities in
      2017 from net repayment in 2016.

    * Net U.S. incurrence of direct investment liabilities decreased $130.7 billion to $348.7
      billion, partly offsetting the increases in net U.S. incurrence of portfolio investment
      liabilities and other investment liabilities. The decrease in net U.S. incurrence of
      direct investment liabilities reflected decreases in net incurrence of debt instrument
      liabilities and equity liabilities.

Financial derivatives

Transactions in financial derivatives other than reserves reflected net lending of $26.4
billion in 2017, an increase of $10.5 billion from 2016.

March 25, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, March 16, 2018

Initial Estimates Show Digital Economy Accounted for 6.5 Percent of GDP in 2016

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released, for the first time, preliminary statistics and an accompanying report exploring the size and growth of the digital economy. Goods and services that are primarily digital accounted for 6.5 percent of the U.S. economy, or $1.2 trillion, in 2016, after a decade of growing faster than the U.S. economy overall, BEA’s research shows.

From 2006 to 2016, the digital economy grew at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent, outpacing overall U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent per year.

In 2016, the digital economy supported 5.9 million jobs, or 3.9 percent of total U.S. employment. Digital economy employees earned $114,275 in average annual compensation compared with $66,498 per worker for the total U.S. economy.

BEA includes in its definition of the digital economy three major types of goods and services:

  • the digital-enabling infrastructure needed for an interconnected computer network to exist and operate
  • the e-commerce transactions that take place using that system
  • digital media, which is the content that digital economy users create and access.

Under this definition, that includes goods and services, such as computer hardware and software, telecommunications services, margins on retail e-commerce transactions, and subscriptions to online streaming services, to name a few.

Because of the limitations of available data, the estimates released today include only goods and services that are “primarily digital.” This means that some components of the digital economy, like peer-to-peer (P2P) e-commerce, also known as the sharing economy, are excluded from the initial estimates. P2P transactions such as ride-sharing services rely on internet-enabled devices to match supply and demand, but also have a non-digital component of in-person provision of services.

These new estimates are supported in part by funding from the Commerce Department’s National Information and Telecommunications How-big-is-the-digital-economyAdministration. The estimates pull out information about the digital economy already embedded in BEA’s core statistics, such as GDP, and are the first step toward a future digital economy satellite account. Satellite accounts, like those for outdoor recreation or arts and culture, complement BEA’s core statistics by focusing on a specific industry or activity.

You can find the report and the data on the digital economy page at bea.gov. To submit comments or feedback or to ask a question about these new estimates, email DigitalEconomy@bea.gov. Feedback will help BEA refine and expand the digital economy estimates moving forward.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

March 16, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, March 8, 2018

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services January 2018

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods
and services deficit was $56.6 billion in January, up $2.7 billion from $53.9 billion in December,
revised.

Goods and Services Trade Deficit

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

January exports were $200.9 billion, $2.7 billion less than December exports. January imports
were $257.5 billion, down less than $0.1 billion from December imports.

The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit
of $2.8 billion to $76.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to
$19.9 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $7.9 billion, or 16.2 percent, from
January 2017. Exports increased $9.7 billion or 5.1 percent. Imports increased $17.6 billion or
7.4 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $2.5 billion to $53.8 billion for the three
months ending in January.
     * Average exports increased $1.7 billion to $201.6 billion in January.
     * Average imports increased $4.2 billion to $255.4 billion in January.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $7.2 billion from the three
months ending in January 2017.
     * Average exports increased $13.1 billion from January 2017.
     * Average imports increased $20.3 billion from January 2017.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $3.0 billion to $134.2 billion in January.
  Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.3 billion.
     * Capital goods decreased $2.6 billion.
          o Civilian aircraft decreased $1.8 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.3 billion.
          o Fuel oil decreased $0.5 billion.
          o Crude oil decreased $0.2 billion.
          o Other chemicals decreased $0.2 billion.
     * Other goods decreased $1.0 billion.
     * Consumer goods increased $1.2 billion.
          o Artwork, antiques, stamps, and other collectibles increased $0.5 billion.
          o Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.4 billion.
  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.3 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $66.7 billion in January.
     * The largest increase was in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.1 billion).
     * The only decrease was in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $0.2 billion to $210.7 billion in January.
  Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.3 billion.
     * Capital goods decreased $1.3 billion.
          o Civilian aircraft decreased $0.9 billion.
          o Semiconductors decreased $0.5 billion.
     * Consumer goods decreased $0.9 billion.
          o Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.2 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.0 billion.
          o Crude oil increased $2.2 billion.
  Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $46.8 billion in January.
     * The largest increase was in other business services ($0.2 billion).
     * The largest decrease was in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.2 billion).

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $1.3 billion to $69.7 billion in January.
     * Real exports of goods decreased $4.3 billion to $126.9 billion.
     * Real imports of goods decreased $3.0 billion to $196.6 billion.

March 8, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, March 2, 2018

National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2017 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of
2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the
third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the
"advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6
percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth
remains the same.

 
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment,
state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a
negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory
investment that was partly offset by accelerations in PCE, exports, state and local government spending,
nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending, and an upturn in residential fixed
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned up.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $235.9 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $19,736.5
billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $250.6 billion (table 1 and table
3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent (appendix table A).


Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate,
primarily reflecting a slight downward revision to private inventory investment. For more information,
see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each
release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.


                                         Advance Estimate Second Estimate
                                     (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP                                       2.6             2.5
Current-dollar GDP                             5.0             4.9
Gross domestic purchases price index           2.5             2.5
PCE price index                                2.8             2.7


2017 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level),
compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2017 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed
investment, and exports. These contributions were partly offset by a decline in private inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP from 2016 to 2017 reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and
in exports and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment.  These movements were partly offset
by decelerations in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, accelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $761.7 billion, in 2017 to a level of $19,386.2 billion,
compared with an increase of 2.8 percent, or $503.8 billion, in 2016 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase
of 1.0 percent in 2016 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase
of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A).

During 2017 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017), real GDP
increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016.  The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent during 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during
2016 (table 7).


March 2, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, February 9, 2018

U.S. Int'l Trade in Good & Services December 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that the goods and services deficit was $53.1 billion in December, up $2.7 billion
from $50.4 billion in November, revised. December exports were $203.4 billion, $3.5 billion more
than November exports. December imports were $256.5 billion, $6.2 billion more than November imports.

The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit
of $2.6 billion to $73.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.2
billion.

For 2017, the goods and services deficit increased $61.2 billion, or 12.1 percent, from 2016. Exports
increased $121.2 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports increased $182.5 billion or 6.7 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $2.8 billion to $50.8 billion for the three months
ending in December.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $2.6 billion to $199.5 billion in December.
     * Average imports of goods and services increased $5.4 billion to $250.3 billion in December.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $6.1 billion from the three months
ending in December 2016.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $12.8 billion from December 2016.
     * Average imports of goods and services increased $19.0 billion from December 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $3.4 billion to $137.5 billion in December.
   Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $3.4 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.5 billion.
             o Organic chemicals increased $0.2 billion.
             o Fuel oil increased $0.2 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $1.2 billion.
             o Civilian aircraft increased $0.8 billion.
             o Other industrial machines increased $0.7 billion.
   Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $65.9 billion in December.
     * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
     * Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
     * Transport decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $6.0 billion to $210.8 billion in December.
   Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $5.9 billion.
     * Consumer goods increased $3.2 billion.
             o Pharmaceutical preparations increased $1.8 billion.
             o Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.7 billion.
     * Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.1 billion.
             o Passenger cars increased $1.1 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $0.8 billion.
   Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $45.7 billion in December.
     * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.2 billion.
     * Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $2.0 billion to $68.4 billion in December.
     * Real exports of goods increased $3.3 billion to $131.5 billion.
     * Real imports of goods increased $5.3 billion to $199.9 billion.

Revisions

In addition to revisions to source data for the November statistics, the seasonally adjusted goods
data were revised for January through November so that the totals of the seasonally adjusted months
equal the annual totals.

Revisions to November exports
     * Exports of goods were revised down $0.5 billion.
     * Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.
Revisions to November imports
     * Imports of goods were revised down $0.6 billion.
     * Imports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19)

The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.7),
Hong Kong ($2.5), Brazil ($1.1), Singapore ($0.9), and United Kingdom ($0.3). Deficits were recorded,
in billions of dollars, with China ($34.0), European Union ($17.2), Mexico ($6.1), Germany ($5.7),
Japan ($5.5), Italy ($3.7), South Korea ($2.1), India ($2.1), France ($2.1), Taiwan ($1.6), Canada
($1.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.6), and OPEC ($0.5).

     * The deficit with the European Union increased $3.8 billion to $17.2 billion in December.
       Exports increased $1.2 billion to $25.1 billion and imports increased $4.9 billion to $42.3
       billion.
     * The deficit with China increased $0.6 billion to $34.0 billion in December. Exports increased
       $1.1 billion to $11.9 billion and imports increased $1.7 billion to $45.9 billion.

Annual Summary for 2017

Goods and Services (Exhibit 1)

For 2017, the goods and services deficit was $566.0 billion, up $61.2 billion from $504.8 billion
in 2016. Exports were $2,329.3 billion in 2017, up $121.2 billion from 2016. Imports were $2,895.3
billion in 2017, up $182.5 billion from 2016.

The 2017 increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of
$57.5 billion or 7.6 percent to $810.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $3.7 billion
or 1.5 percent to $244.0 billion.

As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 2.9 percent in
2017, up from 2.7 percent in 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $95.7 billion to $1,551.4 billion in 2017.
   Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $95.8 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $66.4 billion.
             o Crude oil increased $12.4 billion.
             o Other petroleum products increased $8.7 billion.
             o Fuel oil increased $8.6 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $13.2 billion.
             o Other industrial machines increased $6.6 billion.
             o Civilian aircraft engines increased $4.4 billion.
   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $25.5 billion to $777.9 billion in 2017.
     * Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional
       and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $13.3
       billion.
     * Financial services increased $6.0 billion.
     * Telecommunications, computer, and information services increased $2.2 billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $153.2 billion to $2,361.5 billion in 2017.
   Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $155.1 billion.
     * Industrial supplies and materials increased $64.3 billion.
             o Crude oil increased $31.0 billion.
     * Capital goods increased $50.7 billion.
             o Computers increased $8.1 billion.
             o Other industrial machines increased $7.4 billion.
     * Consumer goods increased $18.6 billion.
             o Cell phones and other household goods increased $9.5 billion.
   Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $1.9 billion.

Imports of services increased $29.2 billion to $533.9 billion in 2017.
     * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $11.7 billion.
     * Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $4.9 billion.
     * Transport increased $4.0 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas – Census Basis (Exhibits 14 and 14a)

The 2017 figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($34.3),
Hong Kong ($32.5), Netherlands ($24.5), Belgium ($14.8), and Australia ($14.6). Deficits were recorded,
in billions of dollars, with China ($375.2), European Union ($151.4), Mexico ($71.1), Japan ($68.8),
Germany ($64.3), Ireland ($38.1), Italy ($31.6), Malaysia ($24.6), India ($22.9), South Korea ($22.9),
Thailand ($20.4), Canada ($17.6), Taiwan ($16.7), France ($15.3), Switzerland ($14.3), Indonesia
($13.3), and OPEC ($13.0).

    * The deficit with China increased $28.2 billion to $375.2 billion in 2017. Exports increased
      $14.8 billion to $130.4 billion and imports increased $43.0 billion to $505.6 billion.
    * The deficit with Mexico increased $6.7 billion to $71.1 billion in 2017. Exports increased
      $13.3 billion to $243.0 billion and imports increased $20.0 billion to $314.0  billion.

February 9, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES November 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced that the goods and services deficit was $50.5 billion in November, up $1.6 billion from $48.9 billion in October, revised. November exports were $200.2 billion, $4.4 billion more than October exports. November imports were $250.7 billion, $6.0 billion more than October imports.

The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 billion to $70.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $53.4 billion, or 11.6 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $112.7 billion or 5.6 percent. Imports increased $166.1 billion or 6.7 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $2.1 billion to $48.1 billion for the three months ending in November.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $2.2 billion to $197.3 billion in November.
* Average imports of goods and services increased $4.2 billion to $245.4 billion in November.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $5.5 billion from the three months ending in November 2016.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $11.1 billion from November 2016.
* Average imports of goods and services increased $16.6 billion from November 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $4.4 billion to $134.6 billion in November.
Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $4.3 billion.
* Capital goods increased $2.5 billion.
o Civilian aircraft increased $1.2 billion.
* Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $1.0 billion.
o Passenger cars increased $0.6 billion.
* Consumer goods increased $0.7 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.1 billion to $65.7 billion in November.
* Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1
billion.
* Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
* Maintenance and repair services decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $6.0 billion to $205.5 billion in November.
Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $6.0 billion.
* Consumer goods increased $2.4 billion.
o Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.1 billion.
* Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.2 billion.
o Crude oil increased $1.1 billion.
* Capital goods increased $1.6 billion.
o Semiconductors increased $0.8 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion to $45.3 billion in November.
* Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
* Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.
* Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $1.1 billion to $66.7 billion in November.
* Real exports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $128.6 billion.
* Real imports of goods increased $4.2 billion to $195.3 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to October exports
* Exports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
* Exports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
Revisions to October imports
* Imports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
* Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19)

The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.8), South and Central America ($2.6), Singapore ($1.0), United Kingdom ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.3). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($33.5), European Union ($13.5), Mexico ($5.8), Japan ($5.8), Germany ($5.3), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.4), South Korea ($1.7), OPEC ($1.3), France ($1.3), Canada ($1.1), Taiwan ($0.9), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).

* The deficit with China increased $1.5 billion to $33.5 billion in November. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $10.8 billion and imports increased $1.8 billion to $44.2 billion.
* The deficit with the European Union increased $1.5 billion to $13.5 billion in November. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $24.0 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $37.5 billion.
* The deficit with South Korea decreased $1.0 billion to $1.7 billion in November. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $4.0 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $5.7 billion.

January 10, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Thursday, January 4, 2018

U.S. Net International Investment Position Third Quarter 2017

The U.S. net international investment position increased to -$7,768.7 billion (preliminary) at the end of the third quarter of 2017 from -$8,004.1 billion (revised) at the end of the second quarter, according to statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $235.4 billion increase reflected a $1,001.2 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $765.8 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

The $235.4 billion increase in the net investment position reflected net financial transactions of –$87.4 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of $322.8 billion (table A).

The net investment position increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the second quarter, and an average quarterly decrease of 5.3 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2017.

U.S. assets increased $1,001.2 billion to $26,854.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $1,227.5 billion to $25,149.7 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $869.2 billion and financial transactions of $358.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected foreign equity price increases that raised the equity value of portfolio investment and direct investment assets, and the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions mostly reflected net acquisition of portfolio investment assets.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $226.2 billion to $1,705.1 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts.
Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Position, 2017:II Change in position in 2017:III Position, 2017:III
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -8,004.1 235.4 -87.4 322.8 -7,768.7
Net position excluding financial derivatives -8,041.2 238.7 -106.0 344.7 -7,802.5
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 37.1 -3.3 18.6 -21.9 33.8
U.S. assets 25,853.6 1,001.2 (2) (2) 26,854.9
Assets excluding financial derivatives 23,922.3 1,227.5 358.2 869.2 25,149.7
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,931.3 -226.2 (2) (2) 1,705.1
U.S. liabilities 33,857.8 765.8 (2) (2) 34,623.6
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 31,963.5 988.8 464.2 524.6 32,952.3
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,894.3 -223.0 (2) (2) 1,671.3
1 Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2 Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $765.8 billion to $34,623.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $988.8 billion to $32,952.3 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $524.6 billion and financial transactions of $464.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the equity value of portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities. Financial transactions mostly reflected net incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities.
  • Financial derivatives decreased $223.0 billion to $1,671.3 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts.
Updates to Second Quarter 2017 International Investment Position AggregatesBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position -7,934.9 -8,004.1
  U.S. assets 25,937.6 25,853.6
    Direct investment at market value 8,202.0 8,125.2
    Portfolio investment 11,210.6 11,206.8
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,931.3 1,931.3
    Other investment 4,157.9 4,154.6
    Reserve assets 435.7 435.7
  U.S. liabilities 33,872.5 33,857.8
    Direct investment at market value 8,162.1 8,134.5
    Portfolio investment 18,451.0 18,462.6
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,894.3 1,894.3
    Other investment 5,365.1 5,366.3

January 4, 2018 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES October 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced that the goods and services deficit was $48.7 billion in October, up $3.8 billion from $44.9 billion in September, revised. October exports were $195.9 billion, down less than $0.1 billion from September exports. October imports were $244.6 billion, $3.8 billion more than September imports.

The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.8 billion to $69.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $20.3 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $49.1 billion, or 11.9 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $97.5 billion or 5.3 percent. Imports increased $146.6 billion or 6.5 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion to $46.0 billion for the three months ending in October.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $0.8 billion to $195.2 billion in October.
* Average imports of goods and services increased $2.0 billion to $241.2 billion in October.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $5.1 billion from the three months ending in October 2016.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $8.2 billion from October 2016.
* Average imports of goods and services increased $13.2 billion from October 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods decreased $0.3 billion to $130.3 billion in October.
Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.5 billion.
* Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $1.3 billion.
o Soybeans decreased $1.4 billion.
* Capital goods decreased $1.2 billion.
o Civilian aircraft decreased $1.1 billion.
* Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.6 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $65.6 billion in October.
* Financial services increased $0.1 billion.
* Other business services, which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services, increased $0.1 billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $199.4 billion in October.
Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $3.5 billion.
* Industrial supplies and materials increased $1.8 billion.
o Crude oil increased $1.5 billion.
* Other goods increased $1.1 billion.
* Consumer goods increased $0.8 billion.
o Cell phones and other household goods increased $0.3 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments decreased less than $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $45.2 billion in October.
* Transport increased $0.3 billion.

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $3.1 billion to $65.3 billion in October.
* Real exports of goods decreased $0.3 billion to $125.7 billion.
* Real imports of goods increased $2.9 billion to $191.0 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services were revised for April through September 2017 to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data.

Revisions to September exports
* Exports of goods were revised up $0.1 billion.
* Exports of services were revised down $0.9 billion.
Revisions to September imports
* Imports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
* Imports of services were revised up $0.6 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19)

The October figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.9), Hong Kong ($2.3), Brazil ($1.1), Singapore ($0.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and United Kingdom ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($31.9), European Union ($12.0), Mexico ($6.0), Japan ($5.9), Germany ($5.3), Italy ($2.7), South Korea ($2.7), India ($2.1), Canada ($1.9), OPEC ($1.6), France ($1.6), and Taiwan ($1.6).

  • The balance with members of OPEC shifted from a surplus of $0.6 billion to a deficit of $1.6 billion in October. Exports decreased $0.9 billion to $4.3 billion and imports increased $1.3 billion to $5.9 billion.
  • * The deficit with China increased $2.1 billion to $31.9 billion in October. Exports decreased $0.8 billion to $10.6 billion and imports increased $1.2 billion to $42.5 billion.
    * The deficit with the European Union decreased $2.5 billion to $12.0 billion in October.
    Exports increased $1.4 billion to $25.0 billion and imports decreased $1.1 billion to $37.0
    billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (Exhibit 20)

The third quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($18.3), Hong Kong ($8.4), Brazil ($7.1), Singapore ($5.0), OPEC ($4.9), Canada ($4.3), United Kingdom ($3.7), and Saudi Arabia ($3.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($81.9), European Union ($25.5), Germany ($17.2), Mexico ($15.9), Japan ($14.6), Italy ($8.7), India ($7.4), Taiwan ($4.2), South Korea ($3.5), and France ($3.2).

  • The balance with Canada shifted from a deficit of $0.7 billion to a surplus of $4.3 billion in the third quarter. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $85.5 billion and imports decreased $4.0 billion to $81.2 billion.
  • The deficit with Mexico decreased $2.6 billion to $15.9 billion in the third quarter. Exports increased $1.3 billion to $69.2 billion and imports decreased $1.3 billion to $85.2 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $2.2 billion to $3.5 billion in the third quarter. Exports decreased $1.5 billion to $17.3 billion and imports increased $0.7 billion to $20.8
    billion.

December 13, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate.

Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase
of 2.3 percent (revised) in the second. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of
U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory
investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative
contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of
GDP, decreased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected an acceleration in private inventory
investment, a downturn in imports, and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and
in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed
investment, and in exports.

Current-dollar GDP increased 5.5 percent, or $259.0 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $19,509.0
billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $192.3 billion (table 1 and
table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with
an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent (appendix table A).


Updates to GDP

The percent change in real GDP was revised up from the advance estimate, reflecting upward revisions
to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory
investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and
Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the
“Additional Information” section that follows.


                                               Advance Estimate      Second Estimate

                                              (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP                                             3.0                  3.3
Current-dollar GDP                                   5.2                  5.5
Real GDI                                              …                   2.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI                      …                   2.9
Gross domestic purchases price index                 1.8                  1.8
PCE price index                                      1.5                  1.5


For the second quarter of 2017, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 2.9  percent to 2.3
percent based on newly available second-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages program.

Corporate Profits (table 12)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) increased $91.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of
$14.4 billion in the second quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $60.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of $33.8 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased
$12.5 billion, compared with an increase of $59.1 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $18.6
billion, in contrast to a decrease of $10.8 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $23.1 billion,
and payments increased $4.6 billion.

 

December 3, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Gross Domestic Product by State: Second Quarter 2017

Mining Led Growth Across Southwestern States in the Second Quarter

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2017, according to statistics on the geographic breakout of GDP released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP by state growth in the second quarter ranged from 8.3 percent in North Dakota to -0.7 percent in Iowa (table 1).

Map of US

Nationally, mining increased 28.6 percent and was the leading contributor to growth for the nation and in the three fastest-growing states of North Dakota, Wyoming and Texas in the second quarter (table 2). Mining contributed to growth in 49 states led by increases in oil and natural gas production.

By contrast, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting decreased 10.6 percent and subtracted from growth in 25 states, including every state in the Plains region, which experienced high levels of crop production in 2016. This industry was the leading contributor to the decreases in real GDP in Iowa and South Dakota–the only two states to decrease in the second quarter.

Other Highlights

In addition to mining; professional, scientific, and technical services; health care and social assistance; retail trade; and information services were the leading contributors to U.S. economic growth in the second quarter.

  • Professional, scientific, and technical services increased 5.1 percent nationally–the seventeenth consecutive quarter of growth. This industry contributed to growth in every state and the District of Columbia. It includes activities such as legal, accounting, engineering, and computer services.
  • Health care and social assistance increased 4.7 percent nationally. This industry contributed to growth in 49 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Retail trade increased 5.6 percent, rebounding from a decrease in the first quarter, and contributed to growth in 49 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Information services increased 7.0 percent in the second quarter and contributed to growth in 46 states and the District of Columbia.

Update of Gross Domestic Product by State

In addition to the new 2017:Q2 statistics presented in this news release, BEA also revised quarterly GDP by state statistics for 2014:Q1 to 2017:Q1 and annual statistics for 2014 to 2016. Updates were made to incorporate source data that are more complete, including the September 2017 annual update to the State Personal Income Accounts, and to align the states with revised national estimates that were released with the November 2nd annual update to the Industry Economic Accounts and the July 2017 annual update to the National Income and Product Accounts.

November 25, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Local Area Personal Income: 2016

Personal income grew in 2016 in 2,285 counties, fell in 795, and was unchanged in 33, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. On average, personal income rose 2.5 percent in 2016 in the metropolitan portion of the United States and rose 1.0 percent in the nonmetropolitan portion. Personal income growth in 2016 ranged from -40.8 percent in Kenedy County, Texas to 27.1 percent in Tillman County, Oklahoma.

Map of US

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or unincorporated business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfer receipts. It includes income from domestic sources as well as from the rest of the world.

Personal income is the income that is available to persons for consumption expenditures, taxes, interest payments, transfer payments to governments and the rest of the world, or for saving. Personal income for 2016 ranged from $4.4 million in Loving County, Texas to $563.9 billion in Los Angeles County, California.

Per capita personal income–personal income divided by population–is a useful metric for making comparisons of the level of personal income across counties. Table 1 presents estimates of per capita personal income by state and county. In 2016, it ranged from $16,267 in Wheeler County, Georgia to $199,635 in Teton County, Wyoming.

The county personal income estimates released today continue the successively more detailed series of data releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) depicting the geographic distribution of the nation’s personal income for 2016. National estimates of personal income for 2016 were released in January 2017, followed by preliminary state personal income estimates in March. The county personal income estimates also incorporate the results of the annual updates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) and state personal income accounts, which were released in July and September 2017, respectively. The personal income estimates released today provide the first glimpse of personal income for 2016 in counties and metropolitan statistical areas. The geographic picture will be completed with the release of real personal income for states and metropolitan areas in May 2018.

November 21, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

U.S. goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August, down $1.2 billion from $43.6 billion in July, revised. August exports were $195.3 billion, $0.8 billion more than July exports. August imports were $237.7 billion, $0.4 billion less than July imports.

The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $22.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $29.1 billion, or 8.8 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $84.9 billion or 5.8 percent. Imports increased $114.0 billion or 6.4 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.3 billion to $43.2 billion for the three months ending in August.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $194.9 billion in August.
* Average imports of goods and services decreased $0.3 billion to $238.1 billion in August.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion from the three months ending in August 2016.
* Average exports of goods and services increased $9.4 billion from August 2016.
* Average imports of goods and services increased $10.5 billion from August 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $129.2 billion in August.
Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.1 billion.
* Consumer goods increased $1.0 billion.
o Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.6 billion.
* Capital goods increased $0.4 billion.
o Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
* Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.0 billion.
o Fuel oil decreased $0.7 billion.
* Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $0.4 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.5 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $66.1 billion in August.
* Travel (for all purposes including education), other business services (which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services), and financial services each increased $0.1 billion.
* Transport, which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, decreased $0.2 billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $0.3 billion to $193.6 billion in August.
Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.4 billion.
* Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.5 billion.
o Finished metal shapes decreased $0.2 billion.
o Copper decreased $0.2 billion.
* Capital goods decreased $0.5 billion.
o Computer accessories decreased $0.3 billion.
o Civilian aircraft decreased $0.2 billion.
* Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.7 billion.
o Passenger cars increased $0.5 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $44.1 billion in August.
* Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
* Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion to $61.8 billion in August.
* Real exports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $125.2 billion.
* Real imports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $187.0 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to July exports
* Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
* Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.
Revisions to July imports
* Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
* Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19)

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.7), Hong Kong ($2.5), Singapore ($0.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Brazil ($0.4). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.7), European Union ($10.9), Japan ($6.3), Mexico ($5.8), Germany ($4.8), Italy ($2.5), South Korea ($2.1), India ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($0.8), OPEC ($0.8), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).

* The deficit with China decreased $2.1 billion to $29.7 billion in August. Exports increased $0.8 billion to $11.6 billion and imports decreased $1.2 billion to $41.3 billion.
* The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.2 billion to $10.9 billion in August. Exports increased $1.4 billion to $24.2 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $35.1 billion.

October 18, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday, September 30, 2017

U.S. Net International Investment Position Second Quarter 2017

The U.S. net international investment position increased to -$7,934.9 billion (preliminary) at the end of the second quarter of 2017 from -$8,091.6 billion (revised) at the end of the first quarter, according to statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $156.7 billion increase reflected a $1,004.2 billion increase in U.S. assets and an $847.5 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).

The $156.7 billion increase reflected net financial transactions of –$107.5 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of $264.2 billion (table A).

The net investment position increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the first quarter, and an average quarterly decrease of 5.6 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the fourth quarter of 2016.

U.S. assets increased $1,004.2 billion to $25,937.6 billion at the end of the second quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets.

  • Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $1,019.6 billion to $24,006.3 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $657.3 billion and financial transactions of $362.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions mostly reflected net acquisition of portfolio investment and direct investment equity assets.

 

Table A. Quarterly Change in the U.S. Net International Investment PositionBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Position, 2017:I Change in position in 2017:II Position, 2017:II
Total Attributable to:
Financial transactions Other changes in position 1
U.S. net international investment position -8,091.6 156.7 -107.5 264.2 -7,934.9
Net position excluding financial derivatives -8,133.3 161.3 -116.8 278.1 -7,972.0
Financial derivatives other than reserves, net 41.6 -4.6 9.3 -13.9 37.1
U.S. assets 24,933.4 1,004.2 (2) (2) 25,937.6
Assets excluding financial derivatives 22,986.7 1,019.6 362.2 657.3 24,006.3
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,946.7 -15.4 (2) (2) 1,931.3
U.S. liabilities 33,025.0 847.5 (2) (2) 33,872.5
Liabilities excluding financial derivatives 31,120.0 858.3 479.1 379.2 31,978.2
Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,905.1 -10.8 (2) (2) 1,894.3
1 Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year.
2 Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities.

U.S. liabilities increased $847.5 billion to $33,872.5 billion at the end of the second quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities.

  • Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $858.3 billion to $31,978.2 billion. The increase resulted from financial transactions of $479.1 billion and other changes in position of $379.2 billion (table A). Financial transactions mostly reflected net incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities. Other changes in position mostly reflected price increases on portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities.
Updates to First Quarter 2017 International Investment Position AggregatesBillions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
  Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
U.S. net international investment position −8,141.2 −8,091.6
  U.S. assets 24,833.2 24,933.4
    Direct investment at market value 7,843.6 7,895.4
    Portfolio investment 10,570.2 10,591.6
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,946.7 1,946.7
    Other investment 4,039.6 4,066.6
    Reserve assets 433.1 433.1
  U.S. liabilities 32,974.5 33,025.0
    Direct investment at market value 7,952.4 7,952.4
    Portfolio investment 17,859.8 17,908.3
    Financial derivatives other than reserves 1,905.1 1,905.1
    Other investment 5,257.2 5,259.2

Next release: December 28, 2017 at 8:30 A.M. EST
U.S. Net International Investment Position, Third Quarter 2017

September 30, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)

Friday, September 29, 2017

State Personal Income: Second Quarter 2017

State personal income grew 0.7 percent on average in the second quarter of 2017, after increasing 1.4 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 1). Each of the major aggregates of personal income–net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts–grew more slowly than in the first quarter.

Personal income grew 1.3 percent in Nevada, faster than in any other state. Utah had the next fastest growth at 1.1 percent. Iowa, Nebraska, and West Virginia had the slowest growth in personal income, with each state growing less than half the rate of the nation.

Personal Income: Percent Change, 2017:Q1-2017:Q2

Earnings. On average, earnings increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, after increasing 1.5 percent in the first quarter. Earnings growth ranged from 1.6 percent in Nevada to -0.1 percent in Nebraska, and was the leading contributor to growth in personal income in most states (table 2).

Earnings 2017:Q1-2017:Q2 (Percent Change)
  • Growth in construction earnings was the leading contributor to above average earnings growth in Nevada and Oregon (table 3).
  • Growth in retail trade earnings was the leading contributor to above average earnings growth in Utah.
  • Growth in professional, scientific, and technical services earnings was the leading contributor to above average earnings growth in Florida.
  • Growth in information earnings was the leading contributor to above average earnings growth in Georgia and Colorado.
  • Growth in construction earnings and in finance and insurance earnings were both contributors to above average earnings growth in Rhode Island.
  • Growth in finance and insurance earnings was the leading contributor to above average earnings growth in Texas.

Farm earnings declined for the nation and in every state in the second quarter (table 4) and was the leading contributor to slow earnings growth in many states. In Nebraska, Iowa and North Dakota, the decline in farm earnings reduced earnings growth by half a percentage point or more. The slow growth in farm earnings reflects lower prices for grains and other crops.

For the nation, earnings grew in 20 of the 24 industries for which BEA prepares quarterly estimates. Earnings growth in three industries–health care and social assistance; professional, scientific, and technical services; and finance and insurance–was the leading contributor to overall growth in personal income.

Property income. Property income increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, down from 1.3 percent in the first quarter. Property income growth ranged from 1.2 percent in Michigan to 0.4 percent in Rhode Island.

Transfer receipts. Transfer receipts grew 0.2 percent for the nation in the second quarter of 2017, down from the 1.3 percent growth in the first quarter. Growth rates ranged from 2.0 percent in Alaska to -1.1 percent in Iowa.

September 29, 2017 in Economics | Permalink | Comments (0)