Wednesday, March 26, 2008
I am not sure what I think of this analysis (although I am pretty sure that I disagree in a number of respects) but Immigration Daily (www.ilw.com) offers some food for thought about the possibilities of immigration reform with each of the three remaining presidential candidates:
"The three major contenders for President this November are Senators Obama, Clinton and McCain. Here is a quick preview of how immigration benefits might fare under these three possible presidencies (bear in mind that immigration legislation is controversial and generally difficult to muster votes for). The analysis begins with the likely shape of Congress next year. Here, the ground appears to favor Democrats. In the House of Representatives, the Democratic majority will likely increase by the low single digits or decrease by the high single digits. Either way, it appears that the Democrats will keep their majority in the House. In the Senate, Democrats appear poised to increase their majority by 3 to 6 seats. Either way, the Democrats will likely fall short of a filibuster proof majority, thus guaranteeing that on some issues, the Republicans will be able to block bills. Thus the three possible presidencies should be viewed within the context of Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate in the next Congress. If Sen. Clinton were President, Senate passage of immigration benefits could be problematic since a Republican filibuster against an initiative from a President Clinton may be easier to sustain than against another Democrat. The fundamental issue if either Democrat were to be elected President - Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama - is that immigration will likely not be high on the list of Presidential priorities in the next Congress. The Iraq war, health care, energy, the economy - all these might prevent any Democratic presidential push on immigration. If Sen. McCain were President, however, the list of Presidential priorities would be quite different: war against Al-Qaeda, tax cuts, and spending cuts. A President McCain may well want to work on immigration early on to show that he is a centrist President and does not govern from one end of the political spectrum. To sum up, from a purely immigration benefits perspective, an Obama presidency would be better than a Clinton presidency, and a McCain presidency would likely be the best option.
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