Friday, June 29, 2007

What Will the Fallout Be of the Failure of Immigration Reform 2007?

Bill Hing has a posted a number of posts of the reactions of immigrant rights, unions, and other groups to the demise of immigration reform.  The N.Y. Times (here) has an article about the views of immigrants and others to the latest inaction on immigration. The question now is "what next?"  AP speculates (here) that we may see a series of piecemeal immigration reform proposals in Congress, such as the DREAM Act, AgJobs, or increased border enforcement measures. CQPolitics.com (here) wonders whether the Senate Republicans' stance on immigration reform will injure Republicans's standing with Latinos in the 2008 Presidential elections.  It seems pretty clear that the defeat of immigration reform will not help the Reps attract the Latino vote.

What do our readers think?

KJ      

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Comments

Predictions:

I'd say the rhetoric is going to damage the GOP. They'll lose seats and Dems will gain not only the presidency but a stronger hand in congress. The remaining GOP members will see the writing on the wall and enough will drop their divisive rhetoric and positions and something will come out that was actually thought about rather than the kind of legislation that we just saw that no one liked.

In the mean time perhaps the H1B cap will be raised but tech companies haven't been very successful at pushing Congress in that direction.

Maybe you'll see some money thrown at a tech border or a few more border patrol agents as well.

I don't expect anything big until after the next elections though.

Posted by: Justin | Jun 29, 2007 5:12:22 PM

Au contraire, Justin! I see immigration once again being played by the anti-amnesty crowd, this time as an election issue. Why should they stop now, just because the Freddy Kreuger Bill has been defeated once? To do otherwise is to be complacent in the face of the efforts of the dogged open borders crowd. The merits of immigration initiatives will have to stand or fall over the course of the presidential and Congressional campaigns. I feel confident when the socioeconomic scale is used to measure the benefits or deficiencies of the amnesty advocates and opposition positions, the former will be roundly defeated. The citizen will side with his own interests over Mexicans and other Latin Americans, the ranting of amnestias notwithstanding. Unfortunately for the Dems, their recent ratings have fallen to a lower level than the president, mainly because of their positions on immigration. The Dem's ship has sailed, but they've opted to take the political equivalent of the Titanic for their trip. They've truly misread the tea leaves.

Thus far my predictions on immigration legislation made in this blog have been true. While they say in the world of stock speculation that past performance is not guarrantee of future success, I still believe that the odds are in my favor. prevail.

Posted by: Horace | Jun 30, 2007 11:55:46 AM

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