September 29, 2007
Divorce Rate Falling, Not Rising?
"The story of ever-increasing divorce is a powerful narrative. It is also wrong. In fact, the divorce rate has been falling continuously over the past quarter-century, and is now at its lowest level since 1970. While marriage rates are also declining, those marriages that do occur are increasingly more stable. For instance, marriages that began in the 1990s were more likely to celebrate a 10th anniversary than those that started in the 1980s, which, in turn, were also more likely to last than marriages that began back in the 1970s.
Why were so many analysts led astray by the recent data? Understanding this puzzle requires digging deeper into some rather complex statistics."
By Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, N. Y. Times Opinion Link to Article (last visited 9-28-07 NVS)