Environmental Law Prof Blog

Report on Climate Change Impacts in the US

On June 16, the U.S. Global Change Research Program released the NOAA-led study, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" - which it describes as a "state of knowledge" report about current and project impacts of global warming on the US.  Climate-impacts-report  full copy PDF  The report is based on the accumulated body of scientific information from 21 US synthesis and assessment reports as well as the IPCC assessments.Executive-summary of climate impacts report   The report includes separate assessments of various US regions (regional analyses) as well as various aspects of society such as human health, transportation, energy supply and use, water resources, agriculture and ecosystems (sector analyses).

The key findings of the report as described by the government are:

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.

Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. (p. 13) 

2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.

Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. (p. 27)

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. (p. 41-106, 107-152)

4. Climate change will stress water resources.

Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. (p. 41, 129, 135, 139)

 

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.

Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. (p. 71)

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.

Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. (p. 111, 139, 145, 149)

 7. Threats to human health will increase.

Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. (p. 89)

 

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.

Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. (p. 99) 

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.

There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. (p. 76, 82, 115, 137, 142)

 

10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. (p. 25, 29)

Total emisions approach - accurate but not novel and a flawed basis for policy

As this report on the new studies published in Nature indicates, the global warming problem is and always has been understood to be a matter of the total loadings of GHG emissions in the atmosphere, not a matter of timing.  The timing of the GHG emissions only matters over the course of centuries because eventually greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere decompose.  I don't think that anyone familiar with climate policy has ever believed otherwise.  So, on that score the new studies are not new, but they may alter how the problem is conceptualized for policy purposes.

Policy cannot simply divide the total allowable emissions among nations and be done with it.  First, absent intermediate goals tied to deadlines, countries cannot monitor each others compliance with reduction targets.  Second, it creates a tendency for nations to believe that they can just wait until 2050 or whatever when technology will save them and voila they will become carbon neutral.  Our experience in the Clean Air Act attainment with NAAQS was that, faced with a deadline and no requirement for annual progress, states just planned to do something at the last moment and when their plans didn't work, they threw up their hands and said, "OH well." 

We cannot afford to use that model of regulation with respect to climate.  Instead, we need to use technology-forcing technology based standards (e.g. no new coal plants without CSS; CSS retrofit for existing fossil-fuel plants by 2020) along with streamlining the ability of renewables to come online and planning ala the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments with annual progress requirements and contingency measures built into the plan.  Those approaches would be far more successful than the "consume up to the last moment" strategy that may be encouraged by the total emissions approach.

Lawyers have to leave science to the scientists and use extreme care when they are working on a cross-disciplinary basis.  But scientists need to be just as wary of providing policy concepts unencumbered by an understanding of past performance of various regulatory approaches.

From: Naomi Antony, Science and Development Network
Published April 30, 2009 10:40 AM
Scientists put carbon ceiling at a trillion tonnes

Scientists hope a new approach to assessing carbon build-up in the atmosphere will simplify issues
for policymakers and economists. Two papers published in Nature today (29 April) show that the
timings of carbon emissions are not relevant to the debate — it is the total amount of carbon dioxide
emitted over hundreds of years that is the key issue.

Rather than basing negotiations on short-term goals such as emission rates by a given year,
the researchers say the atmosphere can be regarded as a tank of finite size which we must not
overfill if we want to avoid a dangerous temperature rise.

Climate policy has traditionally concentrated on cutting emission rates by a given year, such as
2020 or 2050, without placing these goals within the overall context of needing to limit cumulative
emissions.

Both papers analyse how the world can keep the rise in average surface temperatures
down to no more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This figure is
widely regarded as the threshold beyond which the risk of dangerous climate change
rapidly increases. Policymakers around the world have adopted this limit as a goal.

The first study, led by Myles Allen from the University of Oxford, UK, found that
releasing a total of one trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
between 1750 and 2500 would cause a "most likely" peak warming of two degrees
Celsius. Emissions to 2008 have already released half of this. Allen said in a
press briefing this week (27 April): "It took 250 years to burn the
first half trillion tonnes and, on current predictions, we'll burn the next half
trillion in less than 40 years."

The second study, led by Malte Meinshausen at the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impacts Research, Germany, used a computer model to demonstrate that to avoid
exceeding two degrees Celsius by 2100, cumulative carbon emissions must not exceed
0.9 trillion tonnes. "We have already emitted a third of a trillion in just the past nine years,"
Meinshausen says.

David Frame, a co-author of the Allen paper and researcher at the University of
Oxford, said that these findings make the problem "simpler" than it's often
portrayed. "[The findings] treat these emissions ... as an exhaustible resource. For
economists, this way of looking at the problem will be a huge simplification," Frame
said. "Basically, if you burn a tonne of carbon today, then you can't burn it tomorrow
" you've got a finite stock. It's like a tank that's emptying far too fast
for comfort. If country A burns it, country B can't. It forces everyone to consider
the problem as a whole."

In a separate essay, Stephen Schneider of the Woods Institute for the Environment at
Stanford University in the United States, discusses what a world with 1,000 parts
per million of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere might look like.

This article is reproduced with kind permission of the
Science and Development Network (SciDev.Net).
For more news and articles, visit www.scidev.net.

Nature Abstract of Allen letter:

AAAS Policy Alert

For those of you who try to stay current on science policy, I am a member of AAAS and receive its policy alerts. I encourage all of you to join and subscribe to Science.  Here is today's policy alert:

AAAS Policy Alert -- April 29, 2009 

President Addresses National Academies

President Obama addressed the Annual Meeting of the National Academy of Sciences on April 27 and called for a renewed commitment to basic scientific research and education. During his speech he stated that his goal would be to increase our nation's share of federal investment in research and development (R&D) to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In recent years, the share has hovered around 2.6 percent of GDP. Furthermore, Obama announced the membership of the President's Council of Advisors for Science and Technology (PCAST). Members include past AAAS President Shirley Ann Jackson of RPI, as well as former Board member Rosina Bierbaum and current AAAS Treasurer David Shaw. They join former AAAS President John Holdren who is both the U.S. President's science advisor and co-chair of PCAST.

Budget News

The House and Senate have nominated the conferees to resolve the differences between their respective versions of the FY 2010 budget resolution. House members include: Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt (D-SC), Ranking Member Paul Ryan (R-WI), and Reps. Allen Boyd (D-FL), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Jeb Hensarling (R-TX). Senate members include Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND), Ranking Member Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). The conferees met today (April 27) to begin deliberating over a consensus document.

Other Congressional News

Congressional Climate Change Update. The House Energy and Commerce Committee held four days of hearings on the American Clean Energy and Security Act, with much debate on the merits of moving ahead on the climate and energy package. Subcommittee markup of the bill has been pushed back to next week, with details such as how to allocate permits to emit greenhouse gases and how the revenues will be used yet to be determined. Meanwhile Senate Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-CA) announced the formation of five working groups to find compromises in several areas of concern: regional issues, cost containment, targets and timetables, market oversight and coal research and technology. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee heard from Todd Stern, special envoy for climate change at the State Department, who testified on the diplomatic cost of inaction on climate change and emphasized the need for all countries - developed and developing - to engage in negotiations with "common but differentiated responsibilities." Stern is leading the first session of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate on April 27-28, a White House initiative to develop a dialogue among major developed and developing economies on climate change.

New Bill Promotes Science Envoys. Last week, Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) introduced legislation (S. 838) that recognizes the importance of international scientific cooperation and the work of organizations such as AAAS and the National Academies in this area. The legislation tasks the State Department to appoint Science Envoys to represent our nation and promote international collaboration.

Executive Branch

Presidential Memo on Scientific Integrity. OSTP issued a Presidential Memo on scientific integrity in the April 23 Federal Register and requests public comments on six principles for maintaining and protecting the responsible use of science in decision-making. The memo builds upon a March 9, 2009 memorandum from the President that called on OSTP to issue a set of recommendations within 120 days. OSTP has launched a blog on the subject and is seeking comments on the selection of scientists to serve in the executive branch, peer-review of science used in policy-making, access to scientific data used in policy-making, and whistleblower protection. Comments are due May 13, 2009.

NIH Stem Cell Guidelines Now Open for Comment. The NIH Guidelines for Human Stem Cell Research are now open for public comment until May 26.

NCI Director Speaks on Cancer Plan. National Cancer Institute Director John Niederhuber recently spoke of his institute's plans in the wake of President Obama's cited goal of doubling funds for cancer research. Included would be a boost in the NCI payline to fund more meritorious research grants, as well as more grants to first-time investigators and new faculty researchers. There will also be a focus on personalized cancer care.

EPA Examines Ocean Acidification. On April 14, EPA issued a Federal Register notice requesting information on ocean acidification, the changing of ocean chemistry from increases in carbon dioxide that affects coral reefs and other marine organisms. In response to a lawsuit by the Center for Biological Diversity, EPA is trying to determine whether changes are needed to the water quality criteria under the Clean Water Act. Comments are due June 15, 2009.

Toxics Reporting Tightened. As mandated in the 2009 omnibus appropriations bill, EPA finalized changes to reporting requirements under the Toxics Release Inventory that will take effect July 1. The final rules restore more stringent reporting requirements than those from a Bush-era rule that raised the pollution threshold for reporting. In 2006, AAAS submitted comments stating that the increased threshold would "threaten the ability of researchers to identify and understand potential threats to the environment and public health in a scientifically rigorous manner."

FDA Widens Access to "Morning-After" Pill. The Food and Drug Administration will now allow 17-year-olds to purchase the Plan B "morning-after" pill without a prescription, following a recent federal court order that it do so. The decision has been labeled a "triumph of science over politics" because of widespread concern that the previous administration overruled scientific advice on making the pill available over the counter, leading the FDA's top women's health official, Susan Wood, to resign in protest in 2005.

Nation's First CTO: Clarification. Last week's Policy Alert reported on the President's selection of Aneesh Chopra to be the nation's first chief technology officer. It has since been reported that the CTO will also be one of the associate directors of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) concerned with overall technology policy and innovation strategies across federal departments. Chopra's position (which is subject to Senate confirmation) should not be confused with that of Vivek Kundra, recently named Chief Information Officer, who is located in the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), overseeing day-to-day information technology spending and interagency operations.

Elsewhere

Climate Risk Report Released. Led by the Heinz Center and CERES, a coalition of insurance, government, environmental, and investment organizations released a report, Resilient Coasts: A Blueprint for Action that listed steps the nation can take to drastically reduce rising coastal hazard risks and their associated economic impacts.

Texas School Board Chairman Up for Confirmation. Texas State Board of Education Chairman Don McLeroy, a vocal opponent of teaching evolution, is up for Senate confirmation by the state Senate, and during a recent hearing some members of the Senate Nominations Committee expressed dissatisfaction with McLeroy's performance. One state senator said McLeroy has "created a hornet's nest" and noted that 15 bills filed during this legislative session would strip powers from the state school board. Even if McLeroy is not confirmed as chairman, he will still remain a member of the board. In other news, the Institute for Creation Research is now suing in U.S. District Court over the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board's decision to deny its request to offer a master's degree in science education.

Animal Rights Activists Charged. Two animal rights activists have been arraigned on charges of conspiracy, stalking and other crimes, including attempted fire-bombing, against UCLA scientists engaged in animal research.

---

Publisher: Alan I. Leshner
Editor: Joanne Carney
Contributors: Erin Heath, Earl Lane, Steve Nelson, Al Teich, Kasey White

NOTE: The AAAS Policy Alert is a newsletter provided to AAAS Members to inform them of developments in science and technology policy that may be of interest.  Information in the Policy Alert is gathered from published news reports, unpublished documents, and personal communications.  Although the information contained in this newsletter is regarded as reliable, it is provided only for the convenience and  private use of our members.  Comments and suggestions regarding the Policy Alert are welcome.  Please write to alert@aaas.org.

Bending over backwards: Waxman and Markey grant Republicans another day of hearings on climate change bill

Listing the 40 days of hearings that have already been held, Waxman and Market nevertheless agree to hold another day of hearings on May 1, 2009.  The list is a good beginning for a legislative history on the bill. hearings list I I just hope that the quality of witnesses is better than Newt Gingrich saying that he's still not sure that global warming is caused by humans.

G8 + 10 summit seeks consensus on climate change

International environmental ministers of G8 + 10 will meet tomorrow in Sicily  to try to achieve consensus on climate change.  President Obama's pledge to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 may be a catalyst, especially if the US is prepared to discuss specifics on how it intends to achieve that cut.   The talks are part of the preparation for Copenhagen in December, when the Bali action plan anticipates a post-2012 deal will be signed.  In addition to the G8 countries,China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Australia, South Korea, Egypt and Denmark will be participating.  Planet Ark has more on the Sicily talks.

Ocean acidification

According to the Science blog:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has asked scientists how to revise the Clean Water Act to protect seas against ocean acidification from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Under the current rules, waters are designated as impaired if their pH deviates from naturally occurring levels by 0.2 units. But biologists say that some organisms are affected by smaller changes. A more complex approach would also take into account how organisms or ecosystems are affected differently by changing pH levels.

Catholic Coalition Pushes Climate Change Action

Grist reports:

Citing dual obligations to care for God’s creation and the world’s poor, a broad coalition of Catholic groups today announced a new commitment to take action climate change.

The “St. Francis Pledge,” named after the patron saint of animals and ecology, urges Catholic to pray for those affected by climate change, learn about the problem, and take steps to reduce their own consumption and advocate for climate legislation that protects the world’s most vulnerable people.

“Our cars and power plants, more energy consumption and waste—we’re leaving a bigger carbon footprint,” reads a statement on the website of the umbrella group, the Catholic Climate Covenant. “Scientists tell us that means more climate change. Here and around the world, it is the poor who will be hit hardest. With more droughts, floods, hunger and joblessness. As faithful Catholics, we have a moral obligation to care for both Creation and the poor. Pope Benedict XVI insists, ‘Before it is too late, it is necessary to make courageous decisions’ to curb climate change.”

The group printed a similar message in an ad [PDF] on the New York Times op-ed page today. The campaign’s participants include the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops; Catholic Charities; the Catholic Health Association of the United States; Catholic Relief; the National Catholic Education Association; and the Conference of Major Superiors of Men and the Leadership Conference of Women Religious.

“What brings all these groups together are the Biblical call to be stewards of God’s creation and Jesus’ mandate to care ’for the least of these,’” Bishop William Skylstad, the campaign’s honorary chair, said in a prepared statement. “This prophetic connection in the life and example of St. Francis has fresh meaning for our response to the crisis of global climate change.”

The pledge does not endorse specific legislation or suggest specific personal actions, although it seeks to include measures to protect the world’s poor in U.S. climate legislation. (Check out the campaign’s video on its site or below.)

Neither does the campaign mention birth control, long a contentious issue between Catholic leaders and those environmentalists who believe population growth must be curbed. A reporter asked about population control during a conference call with organizers today. Bishop Skylstad said the global population was less important to the earth’s climate than the amount of resources humanity uses.

While environmental stewardship has deep roots in the Catholic Social Teaching tradition, evangelical Christians have made more news in recent years in advocating for and against action on climate change. (Grist’s 2006 special series on God & the Environment found much more hubbub on the issue from evangelicals.)

The emphasis in today’s announcement on the “least of these” who will be most harmed by climate change also jibes with Pope John Paul II’s widely quoted message from 1990:

“When the ecological crisis is set within the broader context of the search for peace within society, we can understand better the importance of giving attention to what the earth and its atmosphere are telling us: namely, that there is an order in the universe which must be respected, and that the human person, endowed with the capability of choosing freely, has a grave responsibility to preserve this order for the well-being of future generations. I wish to repeat that the ecological crisis is a moral issue.”

Pope Benedict XVI mentioned “disturbing climate change” among his concerns in his Easter message to the world last week.

Earth Week on Capitol Hill - News from Markey's Select Committee

TUESDAY 4/21:   

-The Energy & Commerce Committee and the Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment began hearings on the Waxman-Markey climate change legislation.

-Speaker Nancy Pelosi held an event with House committee chairmen, faith and business leaders

-The Catholic Church launched an intiative to fight climate change and stand up for vulnerable communities in harms' way across the world.

-A new savings report released today from the Union of Concerned Scientists found that implementinga suite of energy, climate and transportation features would save consumers and businesses $465 billion in 2030 - including $900 on electricity bills and $580 on transportation.


MONDAY 4/20:

-China is outspending the United States in the race for clean energy technology and jobs, according to a new report by the Center for American Progress. The report suggests China is spending $12.6 million an hour to green their economy.


SUNDAY 4/19:

-Thousands gathered on the National Mall to kick off Earth Day events. Chairman Markey spoke before young climate activists as part of the Earth Day on the National Mall celebration. He was joined by Lisa Jackson, Administrator of the EPA, along with musical artists Moe and The Flaming Lips.


SATURDAY 4/18:

-At 103 events across the country, 70 members of Congress took part in Focus the Nation town hall events to discuss the clean energy economy and creating green jobs with students and community leaders across the country.


FRIDAY 4/17:

-The Environmental Protection Agency released a key finding: that global warming emissions pose a threat to public health and welfare.

Wilkins Shelf Ice Bridge Disintegrates

Montabay.com reported:

As though commenting on world leader's lack of progress in combating climate change at the G20 conference last week, an ice bridge connecting the Wilkins Ice Shelf to the Antarctic continent broke off over the weekend. Long expected by scientists, the break is perhaps the beginning of the Wilkins Ice Shelf completely coming loose from Antarctica.

Splitting at its thinnest point of 500 meters the 25-mile-long ice bridge connected the Wilkins Ice Shelf to Charcot and Latardy islands. The Wilkins Ice Shelf has become famous for being the largest of ten Antarctic ice shelves to have collapsed or shrunk recently, most likely due to rising temperatures in the Antarctic. In the past 50 years, Antarctic temperature have risen approximately 3 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit), which is about three times the global surface temperature increase.

Scientists worry that the loss of the ice bridge may allow water currents to melt the Wilkins Ice Shelf far faster, eventually leaving the ice shelf a disintegrating island.