Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Its time to undertake all of the community mitigation efforts: we have a PSI category 4 pandemic at least and WHO is set to declare the pandemic to be stage 5
Even a day makes a difference! WHO is now considering increasing its phase to Phase 5. The US now has a death rate that exceeds 1%, so the Pandemic Severity Index in the US is a Category 4 severity, especially given the death rate in Mexico which appears to be in excess of 2% and thus a Category 5 severity. So NOW would be the time to begin all of those community mitigation efforts in every affected state....and at least most of them throughout the US. For the details about what we should do and why, see this reposting from yesterday. Secondguessing the CDC But suffice it to say, we need to isolate the ill, quarentine those in close contact with them at home, close schools and deliver instruction on line, reduce business meetings and encourage telework, cancel large gatherings, and in general promote social distancing. My guess is that it will take another dozen deaths and the spread to another 15 states before the CDC issues these recommendations.