Friday, September 5, 2008

Best Estimate of 2100 Sea Level Rise is nearly 1 meter to as much as 2 meters

Pfeffer et al have published the first serious assessment of how projected sea level rise by 2100 due to global warming will be affected by ice sheet loss in Greenland and Antartica.  Their conclusion is that 80 cm -- slightly less than a meter -- is the minimum level and 2 meters is the maximum.  This is higher than the IPCC maximum figure on sea level rise (60 cm) because the IPCC did not include dynamic ice sheet loss in its estimates.  Real Climate's analysis of the IPCC 4th Assessment noted that no upper limit on sea level rise could be confidently set because of uncertainty about how much to allow for dynamic ice sheet processes  Real Climate post   Pfeffer has filled in this hole in the analysis and thus provided the most scientifically credible estimate of sea level rise.

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