September 13, 2006
IPCC Narrows Range of Projected Global Warming
It appears that IPCC projects global mean temperatures will likely rise 2 - 4.5 degree C by 2100. Link: Tiempo Climate Newswatch, Week ending September 17th 2006. Remember the geographic distribution of global warming: a 3 degree increase on average may translate into an 8 - 10 degree increase in the polar regions. That sort of increase is not good for ice sheets and other positive feedback mechanisms:
Leaked information from the forthcoming Fourth Assessment of the International Panel on Climate Change suggests that the more extreme forecasts of global warming rates may be revised down. The current draft narrows the range of predictions for the year 2100 from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius to 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, reflecting increasing confidence in the forecasts. Holding greenhouse gas emissions at current levels would limit the rise to two degrees by the end of the century, the draft report concludes. The report will finalized in the first quarter of 2007.
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