Thursday, November 11, 2010
Eugene Volokh at The Volokh Conspiracy notes this post by Steve Landsburg at The Big Questions. After setting forth a hypo that might be fruitfully used in class to show how bad most folks are at estimating likelihood, Landsburg offers some thoughts on the probabality he might offer as proof beyond a reasonable doubt:
70-74% certainty sounds like roughly the right standard to me in a world where the police can be counted on not to take advantage of that standard by falsifying evidence against people they don’t like. Given that prospect, though, I think I prefer something a little tougher — though not as tough as 98%.