November 27, 2006
CrimProf Richard Berk Invents A Murder Forecasting Program
From philly.com: University of Pennsylvania CrimProf Richard Berk, a trained statistician, never met a data set he didn't like.
Now, using fresh data from the Philadelphia probation department, Berk and three colleagues have built an innovative model for predicting which troublemakers already in the system are most likely to kill or attempt a killing.
With the homicide rate in Philadelphia outpacing last year's by at least 7 percent, a computer model for "forecasting murder" is in the works, Berk said, to be delivered to the probation department in the new year, with clinical trials of the new tool to begin in the spring.
Initial research suggests the software-based system can make it 40 times more likely for caseworkers to accurately predict future lethality than they can using current practices.
Rest of Article. . . [Mark Godsey]
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