Lehman Bankruptcy and the Presidential Race

John McCain was up in the most of the polls (and the Intrade markets) the weekend before Lehman declared bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008.  After the bankruptcy of Lehman, McCain has trailed in every poll ever since.  The economy soured after the bankruptcy and McCain's fortunes went down with the market.  One could ask, had Paulson given an 60 to 80 billion guarantee to a Lehman suitor (he had, a few weeks earlier, guaranteed 29 billion in bad assets in the Bear Stearns acquisition), would the market have held up better and would we have had another President (or a least a closer race)?   Did Paulson doom McCain?