January 19, 2006
New Market Indicator Needed?
We have long become accustomed to the odd phenomenon of a high tech company reporting big profits for the last quarter only to see the stock price of the company fall, sometimes dramatically. This week we watch market corrections to earnings dissapointments in the quarterly reports of Intel and Yahoo. Apple Computer and eBay and offering disappointing forecasts of earnings and their stock price has dropped. The market had priced the stock in anticipation of higher profits that those that were reported. What is noteworthy however is a sense of how often the market is overpricing stock in anticipation of profits and when disappointed, how severely the market reacts. A market that is consistently high on predicting high-tech profits and a market that responds dramatically to earnings disappointments is a market that is overcooked. An numerical indicator of the frequency of overpricing and the size of the overpricing would be an indicator of whether the market is overcooked.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference New Market Indicator Needed?: