September 5, 2005
Stock Market Prediction: Get out
Folks, I will make a prediction against my interest (I may look very foolish with this later -- and indeed, I hope I do). The stock market is due for a severe correction. It may not happen quickly -- it may take a while to develop -- but look for a 15% negative correction over the next year or so. Increased energy prices, Chinese and Indian products coming on line, the markets blase acceptance of low risk premiums, a slowing manufacturing economy, leveraged fund foibles (chasing the high returns; hiding the bad results), lower consumer spending, heavy short pressure (particularly in the EFTs) -- it all adds up to a correction. Minimize long positions in stock.
September 5, 2005 | Permalink
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