Thursday, January 19, 2012
Posted by D. Daniel Sokol
Pierre Dubois (Toulouse School of Economics), Olivier de Mouzony (Toulouse School of Economics), Fiona Scott-Morton (Yale), and Paul Seabright (Toulouse School of Economics) have written on Market Size and Pharmaceutical Innovation.
ABSTRACT: This paper quantifies the relationship between market size and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry. We estimate the elasticity of innovation, as measured by the number of new chemical entities appearing on the market for a given disease class, to the potential market size represented by the willingness of su¤erers of diseases in that class (and others acting on their behalf such as insurers and governments) to spend on their treatment during the patent lifetime. We find positive significant elasticities with a point estimate under our preferred specification of 25.2%. This suggests that at the mean market size an additional $1.8 billion is required in additional patent life revenue to induce the invention of one additional new chemical entity. An elasticity substantially and significantly below one-half is also a plausible implication of the hypothesis that innovation in pharmaceuticals is becoming more di¢ cult ! and expensive over time, as costs of regulatory approval rise and as the industry runs out of "low hanging fruit".